Suruga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next week and a half is going to test your patience if you’re chasing waves around Suruga Bay. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak, and messy surf that just isn't worth your time. From Thursday the 10th right through to the morning of Sunday the 20th, it’s a write-off. We’re talking ankle-biters, short-period slop, and cross-shore breezes messing up what little there is. There’s a couple of glassy moments on the 15th, but the swell is barely a ripple at 2ft, so it’s more of a paddle than a surf. You’d be better off tuning up your board or going for a long drive.

The one and only standout in this entire outlook is that massive pulse arriving on Sunday the 20th. The energy starts building through the day, and by Monday the 21st, a serious SSE swell is hitting with a solid 12ft to 13ft of raw power. The combined energy is off the charts (6403 on Monday morning, jumping to 9824 by the afternoon). The period is a long 17-18 seconds, so this is proper groundswell, and the wind is light and cross-shore, keeping things somewhat manageable. However, and this is a big however, this is far too much juice for Suruga Bay. This is a beginner-friendly break, and anything over 8ft is expert territory. At 12ft plus, it’s going to be a washing machine. This spot is exposed and will be absolutely pounded. If you’re a seasoned charger, it might be a spectacle, but for most of us, it’s a day to stay on the beach and watch from a safe distance.

The swell peaks on Tuesday the 22nd, with heights pushing 18ft to 21ft and energy readings hitting five digits (20468 and 30458). The period extends to 19 seconds, which is incredibly long, and it will be breaking straight and heavy. This is pure, unadulterated power, and it’s a real shame it’s hitting a breakwater-type spot with a cross-onshore wind. It’s going to be a chaotic mess, a true “don’t even think about it” situation for anyone who isn’t a professional.

Then, the storm blows through. Wednesday the 23rd starts with a near-gale from the SSE at 37 mph, onshore and howling, with the swell still a huge 26ft. The wind swings around to the WSW by the afternoon, cleaning it up a touch, but the swell is still a monstrous 16ft. Still way too big.

The real, rideable surf finally arrives on Thursday the 24th. The swell has dropped to a much friendlier 5ft, with an 11-second period and the energy has backed off to a moderate 564. The wind is glassy in the morning, making for some very clean conditions. This is your window. It’s the only time in the whole outlook where the combo of size, wind, and conditions all come together for a proper surf. But it's a fleeting window, with the afternoon dropping and the wind turning onshore.

By Friday the 25th, it’s all over. A fresh cross-shore breeze from the ENE at 19 mph destroys the surface (energy back down to 60), and the swell has faded back to 2ft. It’s back to square one.

So here’s the plan: Don’t even bother checking the surf until that Thursday the 24th. The big stuff is for experts only and is more dangerous than fun at this spot. That Thursday morning is the one to circle on the calendar. The water temperature will be about average for this time of year, nothing weird there. One last thing, if the forecast holds for that big swell, and the wind stays heavy, this might look more interesting for some kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the sheer size and the wind setup.

Signing off,

Rusty

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