Suruga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, switching to feet and miles.

First off, the outlook for Suruga Bay is a bit of a slow burn. The first few days are small and messy, but there’s a huge pulse of energy building for the second week that’s going to be something special, though it’ll be a real handful. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Thursday the 30th morning is glassy, with a tiny 1ft SSW swell and light wind from the WSW at 3 mph. It’s poor surf, honestly, just a dribble. The afternoon improves a little – 3ft SW swell, still glassy, but it’s only surfable in a very ordinary way. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st are a write-off, with onshore winds and tiny, weak swell. We’re looking at a gap of a few days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 2nd is still poor, but there’s a sneaky 2ft ESE swell with a very long period of 16 seconds early, building to 2ft in the afternoon. The energy is still weak (165 in the morning, 203 in the afternoon), but that long period suggests there’s some shape to the lines. The wind is cross-on, so it’s choppy, but if you’re desperate, you could find a clean-up set.

Now, Monday the 3rd of August is where things start to wake up. The morning shows 4ft ESE swell at 17 seconds, and the energy jumps to 787 – moderate wave energy. The wind is light cross-on from the east at 6 mph, with light cross-onshore ripple. It’s marginal, but there’s potential. The afternoon gets bigger: 5ft at 18 seconds, energy at 1172, and the wind is onshore from the SE. Still marginal.

Tuesday the 4th of August: the swell is really starting to build. Morning has 6ft SE swell at 17 seconds, with energy at 1715. The wind is cross-on from the ENE at 9 mph, making for a gentle cross-onshore chop. By afternoon, it’s 7ft SE at 17 seconds, energy at 2647. This is getting solid, but it’s also now over 5ft, so beginners should be cautious. The wind is onshore, but the swell is powerful.

Wednesday the 5th of August gets serious. The morning is pumping 10ft SSE swell at 17 seconds, with energy at 5533 – strong wave energy. The wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, creating a cross-chop. This is expert territory now, over 8ft, and the period is long. It’s a point break sort of swell, but the conditions are rough. The afternoon sees 12ft at 17 seconds, energy at 7780, but the wind is onshore and it’s poor.

The standout of the whole window is Thursday the 6th of August. The morning is pumping a massive 15ft S swell, period 17 seconds, and the energy is a staggering 11572. The wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, and the wave comment reads “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” This is a true beast – only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s going to be a heavy, dangerous beast. The afternoon is 15ft S at 16 seconds, but the wind is onshore and it’s poor.

Friday the 7th of August is still huge, with 12ft S swell at 15 seconds in the morning, energy at 5874. The wind is cross-on, so it’s choppy, but again, the comment says the wind and tide are favorable though the swell is too big. Afternoon is 12ft SSW at 15 seconds, but poor.

From Saturday the 8th, the swell starts to drop. 10ft SSW in the morning, 7ft SW in the afternoon, both with onshore wind and marginal conditions. Sunday the 9th is down to 4ft to 5ft S swell, with cross-on wind and only 877 to 793 energy. The rest of the week into the 14th sees waist-to-chest high swell, but the wind is often onshore or cross-shore, and the conditions are poor. The 12th of August morning has a clean window with 2ft SW swell and a light cross-offshore wind from the WSW at 3 mph, but it’s tiny.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother until the 3rd of August at the earliest. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are your best bets for a surfer who can handle solid, powerful conditions. The absolute standout is Thursday the 6th of August, but that’s a big-wave day, expert only. The long period (15-18 seconds) means the swell will have real grunt and shape, especially at the right break, but it’s a point break or reef sort of swell. For the beach break, the long period might make it break too straight. The crowd factor? Suruga Bay can see crowds sometimes, so on those bigger days, expect a few more locals out.

Rusty out.

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