Suruga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Suruga Bay has on the table for the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a quiet start out there. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, ordinary conditions before anything really shows its teeth.

The first week is pretty grim. From Friday the 24th right through to the end of July, the waves are just tiny. We’re talking about ankle-snappers around 0.7ft to 2ft, mostly coming from the SSE or SSW. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, messing up whatever crumbly little bump there is. There’s no energy to speak of, with the combined swell energy barely getting into double digits, like 19 to 71 (weak energy). The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for the time of year, with only a 0.4° anomaly – nothing to write home about. There are a few glassy moments on the morning of the 29th and the 31st, but the swell is just too small and weak to make it worthwhile. The surf is really only for the dedicated longboarder looking for a gentle paddle.

After the 31st, it gets even quieter. The first few days of August are a write-off, with the same tiny 0.7ft to 1ft swell and poor conditions. Then, things start to change. On Monday the 3rd of August, the swell picks up a notch, but it’s still not clean. Tuesday the 4th of August is where we see a real spike in energy. The swell jumps to 3ft from the ESE with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy jumps into the three-digit range at 570 (moderate wave energy). That’s a proper groundswell, but the wind is a problem – cross-onshore and messy, keeping it marginal. That long period is best for a point or reef, but the bay is a breakwater setup, so those super long lines might be a bit straight.

The real standout, and the one I’d circle on the calendar, is the 8th of August. Saturday morning is showing a massive 12ft swell from the SE, but it’s still onshore and blown out. By Saturday afternoon, the model is calling for a huge 26ft SE swell, with a period of 17 seconds. That’s a colossal amount of energy – the combined energy reading is 51,377 (very strong wave energy). But here’s the catch: the note says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a breakwater spot, that’s not a paddle-out situation; it’s a washing machine. The wind is onshore, too. This is strictly for the experts on a big wave gun, and even then, it’s going to be a beast. For the average surfer, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The crowds here are marked as "sometimes," so on any of the clean, small days you might have company, but on the big day, it’ll be the hardcore crew only.

To sum it up: the first week is a total bust. The 4th and 5th of August offer a taste of real energy but with poor wind. The 8th of August is the big show, but it’s too big for most. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because a blank run like this in the beginning can change quickly.

Rusty.

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