Suruga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for the next few weeks.

Straight up, the first week is a bit of a write-off, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and messy conditions. There’s a real gap from the start with nothing worth paddling out for. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until the very end of the month, so we’re looking at a long dry spell right through until the 27th of July.

Suruga Bay is our only option. The water is sitting at 78° right now, which is just a touch cooler than the norm for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

Forget the first week. From Thursday the 16th right through to the 26th of July, it’s all tiny surf – mostly under 2 ft – with a mix of onshore, cross-on, and cross-shore breezes. The energy is flat (11 to 113 in the combined swell energy). It’s basically a lake out there. The best of a bad bunch might be the glassy mornings on the 16th and 22nd, but the swell is so small it’s just not worth the effort.

Now, hold on to your leashes, because the tail end of the month gets interesting. The 27th of July morning sees a proper pulse arrive. We’re looking at a 5 ft swell from the SSE, with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 854 (moderate wave energy). Problem is, the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the SW at 9 mph, which keeps it a bit lumpy. It’s a marginal call, but definitely the best of the run. The afternoon pushes up to 6 ft from the S, period 13 seconds, and energy over 1200 (strong wave energy), but the wind cranks up to 19 mph from the SW, making it a cross-shore mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The standout of the whole outlook lands on the 28th of July. Tuesday morning kicks off with a solid 7 ft swell from the SSW, period 12 seconds. The energy is pumping at 1198 (strong wave energy). The wind is a light cross-shore from the SW at 6 mph, so it’ll be a bit bumpy but not blown out. This is a big swell for the bay, definitely pushing into expert territory at over 7 ft. The afternoon sees it hold at 7 ft from the SSW with the same 12-second period, and energy at 1310 (very strong wave energy). The wind shifts to a cross-on from the SSW at 9 mph, which will mess up the face a little. This is the only time in the whole window where the size and power are there, but the conditions are only marginal. It’s a promise, not a guarantee, especially this far out, so keep your expectations in check.

The 29th of July offers a cleaner option, with a 3 ft to 4 ft SSW swell (12-second period) and a clean cross-offshore breeze from the W in the afternoon. That’s a much more manageable size and the cleanest wind we’ll see on a decent swell. Energy is still strong (507 to 616). It’s a good call for the intermediate crew.

After that, the 30th and 31st of July fade back to small, weak, and cross-shore winds. The swell drops to under 3 ft, and the energy fades back to 80-95. It’s back to the small stuff.

So, if you’re an expert, pencil in the 28th of July morning for the biggest push. If you want something cleaner and more manageable, the 29th of July afternoon is your best bet. Be patient, because the first 10 days are a no-go.

Rusty.

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