Suruga Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The surf's been pretty average around here lately, and this outlook is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a long stretch of mediocre conditions before things potentially fire up towards the end of the window.

First off, the water is sitting at 82°, which is right about where it should be for this time of year. No wild anomalies to worry about, just standard warm summer water.

The early part of the week, starting Wednesday the 5th, is looking pretty lackluster. We have some chest to head-high swell in the 7ft range, but the wind is mostly cross-shore and it’s messing up the surface. The swell energy is moderate, around 2382, but the conditions are choppy. Thursday the 6th sees a bump in size to 8ft, but the onshore wind picks up, making it poor. This trend continues through Friday the 7th and into the weekend. There’s plenty of swell, but the wind just keeps ruining it. The energy is moderate, in the 1716 to 2510 range, but it’s not doing us any favors.

We do see a bit of a lull in size starting Sunday the 9th, with waves dropping from 6ft down to 4ft by Tuesday the 11th. The wind does ease a little, and there’s a brief window on Monday morning the 10th with some lighter cross-shore breeze and 5ft SSW swell. It’s not epic, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see for a while. The energy drops off to around 1059, so it’s on the weaker side.

After that, things get rough. From Wednesday the 12th through to Monday the 17th, the surf turns pretty poor. The swell drops out, getting down to 1ft at times, and the wind gets fresh and strong, making a mess of the breakwater. The energy is weak, often in the double digits, and it’s just not worth getting wet. This is a solid stretch of about four to five days with no real surf on offer. The forecast is looking grim, but these blank runs aren't unusual for this area.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Mark your calendars for Tuesday the 19th of August. The forecast is showing a significant pulse of SSW groundswell arriving, with the swell height jumping to 8ft in the morning and up to 10ft by the afternoon. The combined wave energy is strong, hitting 3821 and 3963. The period is a long 14 seconds, which is proper groundswell. The problem is the wind. It’s light, but it’s cross-shore and cross-on. That long period swell at a breakwater might get a bit walled, but it’s the biggest and most powerful swell we’ve seen in the whole forecast. It’s a stand-out for the size and energy, but those winds are a real caveat. This is definitely one for the experienced crew; at 10ft, it’s getting into expert territory.

The swell eases a bit on Wednesday the 20th, dropping to 7ft and then 6ft, with lighter winds. Still, it looks like the best chance for a decent wave in the whole run.

So, to sum it up: the next week and a half is looking pretty poor. The highlight is definitely that swell on the 19th and 20th, but it’s a long way out and the wind is looking iffy. It’s promising, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Rusty.

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