Nichinan Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for Nichinan over the next couple of weeks.

Forecast kicks off Saturday, July 18th, with tiny waves. We’re looking at a weak 2ft easterly swell with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is only 85 – that’s weak. The water’s sitting at 82°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing wild. The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Saturday morning is glassy but the swell is just too small and weak to get excited about. Sunday morning is the same story – glassy, 2ft, energy dropping to 66. It’s surfable but very ordinary. The afternoons get a cross-on breeze that chops things up, so don’t bother.

Monday the 20th sees a tiny bump – 2ft from the east with a 10-second period, and energy climbs to 103 (moderate). Mornings stay glassy, but afternoons get messy again. Tuesday and Wednesday follow the same pattern: small, clean mornings, blown-out afternoons. Wednesday morning the 22nd is the best of the first week – 3ft, 11-second period, 149 energy, and glassy. But it’s still small. Thursday through Saturday the 25th, the swell drops back to 1-2ft, with some glassy mornings but nothing worth paddling out for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Monday July 27th, a much bigger swell starts pushing in. The morning sees 3ft from the ESE, but the period jumps to 17 seconds – that’s a very long-period groundswell. Energy rockets to 772 (strong). Wind is cross-shore from the NE at 9 mph, so it’s a bit lumpy. By the afternoon, the swell is 6ft from the same direction, period 16 seconds, and energy is 1901 (very strong). This is getting big, but it’s still considered marginal for Nichinan due to the conditions.

Tuesday July 28th is a standout, but only for experts. The morning swell is 10ft from the ESE, period 15 seconds, energy 4287 – that’s strong. Wind is cross-shore from the NE at 16 mph, so it’s lumpy. The afternoon is even bigger: 13ft, period 17 seconds, energy 9951. The forecast says it’s too big for this break, so only the most experienced should even look at it. Wednesday the 29th is massive – 20ft in the morning, 21ft in the afternoon, period 16 seconds, energy over 18,000. That’s wild, but with strong cross-onshore winds at 28 mph, it’s going to be a messy, dangerous mess. Not for paddle surfing – this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than anything else.

Thursday the 30th is a write-off: 20ft in the morning but gale-force onshore winds at 40 mph, and the swell drops to 13ft in the afternoon with severe gale winds. Friday the 31st sees the swell collapse to 2ft, but winds are still strong.

The real highlight after the big stuff passes is Sunday August 2nd. Morning brings a 2ft swell from the east with a 17-second period (very long), energy 407 (moderate), and clean cross-offshore winds from the WSW at 9 mph. The afternoon sees 3ft from the south, 9-second period, energy 393, and light cross-offshore breeze. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s the one to aim for – clean, glassy-ish, and a nice long-period groundswell that will work well at the river mouth. Just keep in mind it’s a long-range call, so not set in stone yet.

Crowds at Nichinan can show up sometimes, especially if the surf is good, so expect a few others around if you go for that Sunday.

So, overall: the first week is tiny and mediocre. The big stuff from July 27-29 is for experts only and messy. The best bet for most surfers is Sunday August 2nd – clean, small but fun, and that long-period energy will make for some nice-shaped waves at the river mouth.

Rusty.

Read more