Big Ben Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. It’s a tricky stretch ahead for our stretch of coast, and you’re gonna need some patience. The long-range models are showing a pulse of energy, but it comes with a lot of baggage – wind and size issues mostly. There are a few windows where it could line up, but don’t expect a classic week of perfection.

The first real chance to get wet doesn’t show up until the end of the first week. For the early part of the period, it's mostly small, chopped-up leftovers and onshore slop – not worth the paddle. Thursday the 5th through Saturday the 7th, the swell starts to build, but it’s coming with a ton of wind and rain. Saturday afternoon, the swell jumps to 5ft but the period drops to 6 seconds, which is just short-period wind-slop. The energy is still weak (273), and with a fresh cross-shore breeze, it’s going to be a mess.

Sunday the 8th is when things get serious size-wise. The swell is pumping up to 7ft in the morning, but it’s onshore, lumpy, and building fast (479 energy). By Sunday afternoon, we’re looking at a solid 10ft with 8-second period – that’s a lot of raw, unruly power. The energy reading jumps to 1014, which is strong, but it’s just too big and too junky for the break to handle. This is not a day for the faint-hearted; this is a day to stay on the beach unless you’re a total charger, and even then, it’s going to be a beatdown. Monday morning the 9th is even bigger – 10ft plus, with energy hitting 1129. The wind is lighter, but the swell is still predicted to be too big for this spot. It's just a wall of whitewater. This is all happening with stormy winds and a ton of rain – really poor visibility and dangerous conditions.

From Tuesday the 10th through to the 16th, the swell eases but the quality isn't there. It hovers around the 4ft to 7ft mark, mostly with short-period, cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions. The energy drops back down to moderate (404–742). There are a few glimmers – Friday the 13th morning has that 4ft with a 14-second period and a cross-off wind, but the overall score is still poor. It looks clean, but there’s no real push. The period is long, but the size is too small to do much at this break.

The standout window arrives on the morning of Tuesday the 17th. This is where it all comes together. Finally, we get a proper offshore wind (NNW at 3 mph), the swell is a clean 4ft, and the period stretches out to a very long 12 seconds. The energy is moderate (498), but that period means it’s a proper groundswell, with real power behind it. There will be long lulls between sets, but when they come, they’ll be clean and lined up. The water temp is a warm 80°F with a normal anomaly, so it’s comfortable. This is the day to call in sick. This is the one. It’s promising, but being 12 days out, don’t book the charter just yet – forecasts can shift.

The following Thursday the 19th also shows a similar pulse – 4ft with a 12-second period and a light offshore wind in the morning – but it’s a bit more of a gamble. It could be a repeat of Tuesday, but the wind might clock around onshore by the afternoon. Keep an eye on it.

So, bottom line: the near-term is a write-off. Don’t get your hopes up for the next 10 days. Save your energy for the 17th. That morning with the offshore wind and long-period groundswell is the only real standout on offer. It could be well worth the wait.

Rusty.

Read more