Big Ben Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get straight to what this 16-day window is looking like for our stretch of coast. The short version? We’ve got a big, messy, and powerful pulse of swell coming, and it’s going to be too much of a good thing for a while. Then things settle down into a long stretch of smaller but much more user-friendly waves.

Right now, the only game in town to start is Big Ben. It’s an inconsistent beach and jetty setup, but it gets going on Friday afternoon, July 31st. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is about average for this time of year, so no worries there. We’re looking at a small 2ft SSW swell with a short, weak 6-second period. The combined energy is a paltry 70, so it’s pretty anemic. A light south wind is making things a little bumpy. It’s surfable for a complete beginner, but it’s far from inspiring.

Saturday morning, August 1st, drops even further to a 1ft E swell, but it’s glassy. The period jumps to 11 seconds, but there just isn’t any power behind it. The energy is only 54. It’s a knee-high dribble at best. Saturday afternoon sees a bit more size, 2ft from the SE with a long 16-second period, and the energy climbs to 201, but a cross-shore wind chops it up. It’s marginal.

Sunday, August 2nd, is where things start to get interesting. The swell builds to 4ft from the ESE with a 16-second period. The energy jumps to a moderate 1009. It’s still a bit cross-chop, but there’s some push to it now. The morning is the pick of the day. By Sunday afternoon, it’s up to 5ft, but a 15 mph crosswind makes a mess of it.

Now, here’s the big story. Starting Monday, August 3rd, the ocean is going to fire up in a serious way, but it’s going to be too much of a good thing. The swell jumps to 8ft on Monday morning, then 8ft by the afternoon. The period is a solid 16 to 18 seconds, and the energy is strong, hitting 4726 by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, August 4th, it’s a monster. The swell is a good 13ft to 15ft, with a 16-17 second period and energy readings of 8618 and 10286. This is a serious, groundswell-driven event.

The problem is, this is a beach and jetty break. A long-period swell like this, especially over 15 seconds, is going to be breaking too straight and closing out. And at this size, it’s only for experts, if anyone at all. The wind stays cross-shore to onshore through this whole episode, adding more chaos. To be honest, with that much swell, strong winds, and a beach setup, this looks way more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers. This conditions last through Thursday, August 6th, and into Friday morning, August 7th. It’s still huge on Friday morning at 10ft before it starts to back off.

After that, the ocean starts to exhale. Friday afternoon, August 7th, still has 8ft of S swell, but it’s a mess with onshore winds. The real transition happens over the weekend. Saturday and Sunday, August 8th and 9th, see the swell drop to 5-6ft, from the SW, with a 15-second period. It’s still cross-onshore and bumpy, and the energy has dropped to the 1500-1800 range. It’s a clean-up period.

The second week is where we find the real gems. The swell settles into the 5ft to 8ft range, but it’s coming from the E and ENE, which is offshore for Big Ben. Monday, August 10th, sees a 6ft E swell with a 13-second period. The morning has a fresh 19 mph cross-offshore wind, and the report says it’s clean. That’s a huge positive. The energy is moderate at 1522.

The standout of the whole window, for me, is Thursday morning, August 13th. We’ve got a 6ft E swell with a 12-second period, and it’s cross-offshore and clean. It’s the first day in the outlook that explicitly calls for excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is a moderate 1472. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s still over a week out, so treat it as promising, but the ingredients are all there. The Friday morning after that, August 14th, also looks good with a 6ft E swell, clean, and cross-offshore, though a little more wind.

So, to sum it up: we have a massive, unsurfable pulse of swell early on, followed by a few days of messy, average waves, and then a promising clean-up into the middle of the following week. That Thursday morning on the 13th is the one you want to plan for.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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