Big Ben Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Alright, lookin’ at the next couple weeks here, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a pulse of solid, mid-period swell rollin' in right from the get-go, but that clean, organised energy gets chewed up pretty quick by shifting winds and lumpy conditions. The standout window is real narrow – if you can paddle out Tuesday the 11th, that’s where it’s at. After that, it’s a whole lot of lookin’ at the ocean and scratchin’ your head for days, before a late-arriving southerly groundswell tries to put a bit of life back into things around the 25th, but it’s a long way off.

Let’s get into it. The main event hits first thing Tuesday morning, August 11th, at Big Ben (beach/jetty). We’ve got a decent 8ft swell pumpin’ in from the ENE with a solid 12-second period, packin’ a proper punch with combined wave energy of 1448 (strong to very strong). That’s some serious juice, so this one’s for experienced surfers only – too much grunt for beginners. The wind is a light offshore out of the NNW at just 15 km/h, keepin’ it clean. It’s a bit inconsistent here, and crowds are sometimes an issue, but for a few hours Tuesday mornin’, it’s about as good as it gets. Water temp is sittin’ at 82°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Then the wheels fall off. By Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings SW and howls to 30 km/h, turning it into a lumpy, cross-shore mess. Wednesday the 12th brings more trouble – risk of thunderstorms, cross-onshore winds, and choppy conditions that drop the quality to zero. Thursday and Friday stay pretty average; we see the swell drop back to around 5ft to 5ft from the east, but winds are messy. Saturday morning offers a clean-ish look with a 6ft east swell, but the cross-shore breeze makes it tricky, and the combined energy is still moderate (639). Honestly, nothin’ worth paddlin’ out for.

We hit a big gap of poor surf from Saturday the 15th afternoon all the way through to Monday the 24th. That’s nearly ten days where you’re better off doin’ somethin’ else. The swell drops below 4ft, winds are junk from all different angles, and the energy numbers are pathetic – mostly below 400. It’s a real dry spell.

Now, lookin’ way down the line, there’s a flicker of hope. Come Tuesday morning, August 25th, we see a fresh southerly groundswell start to fill in. A 5ft swell from the SSE with a very long 13-second period pushes combined energy to 1005 (strong). Winds are light cross-shore out of the SSW at 15 km/h, keepin’ it manageable. This is a proper groundswell, so the longer period will mean better-shaped lines and longer waits between sets, but at a beach/jetty setup, the period can make it break a bit straight. Still, it’s the best thing on the horizon after that big hole. It’s over a week away, so keep an eye on it, but it’s promisin’. Conditions get a bit choppier through the afternoon.

Stick with the Tuesday morning session if you’re keen – that’s the only real standout in this forecast.

– Rusty

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