Big Ben Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s see what’s cooking at Big Ben.

Right now, we’re looking at a run of fun, clean, smaller waves to kick things off. The water temp is sitting pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild there. The overall swell energy is moderate, hitting around the 300s on the meter.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are your windows for a good, easy surf. Saturday morning sees light rain and a gentle breeze, but the surf is clean with 2ft of east swell. By Sunday afternoon, the wind drops right off to glass, making for some really clean 3ft waves. This is a great time for the beginners out there, real mellow.

Monday the 14th gets a bit choppy as the wind turns onshore, so I’d give that a miss. But then Tuesday the 15th morning is a proper standout. We get a glassy calm, 4ft of east swell with a period of 14 seconds – that’s some nice, long-period groundswell energy coming through (combined swell energy of 580). The wind is dead calm, so it’ll be clean as a whistle. If you’re a competent surfer, that Tuesday morning session is your best bet of this first week.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th stay clean with offshore winds, though the size drops back to 2ft to 4ft. The period shortens up a bit on Thursday afternoon to 6 seconds, so the energy will be a bit weaker and more choppy.

Now, here’s where it gets heavy. From Friday the 18th, the swell really starts to pump. We’re talking a massive SE groundswell. Friday morning the swell energy is already strong at 2504, with 5ft waves. By Friday afternoon, it’s hitting 8ft with a 16-second period (energy at 3227). This is a serious, powerful groundswell. For this kind of long-period swell, a beach/jetty setup like Big Ben can be a bit wonky; these waves are best suited for a point or reef break. It’s getting into expert-only territory.

Saturday the 19th rolls in with a very solid 10ft of SE swell in the morning (energy of 4156). The finder notes say the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a straight-up warning. At that size, with the wind and tide being favorable for the swell itself, this is going to be a washing machine. Only absolute experts should even consider it, and even then, it’s a massive gamble.

After that, the swell slowly drops but stays in the 5ft to 5ft range through the 20th, 21st, and 22nd. Conditions are marginal with a mix of cross and cross-on winds. It’s not a total write-off, but you’re fighting for the good ones.

Then we get a round of nasty weather. On the 23rd, we’re looking at near-gale force winds from the SSW, blowing 31 mph, with a 5ft SE swell. That’s a full-blown blown-out mess. The combined energy is still strong (1826), but with that wind, the quality will be zero.

The end of the forecast period is another massive pulse. From the 24th all the way through the 27th, the swell explodes to 10ft, then 13ft, then 16ft of SSE groundswell. The energy readings are off the charts, going from 4463 up to a monstrous 14731. The file says it again and again: “swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” This is a major, dangerous, humungous swell event. For 4 days straight, it's going to be maxing out and totally unsurfable for 100% of people. A serious weather and surf warning applies. This period is a complete write-off for paddling.

So, to sum it up: The standout is Tuesday the 15th morning for clean, glassy, waist-to-chest high groundswell. Everything after the 18th is either too big, too windy, or both, until we get to the gigantic, dangerous swell at the end.

Stay safe, watch the sets, and don’t be a hero on those 16ft days.
Rusty.

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