Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, checkin' in from the coast. It's a bit of a mixed bag on the horizon, and the first week or so is gonna be a real test of patience. We're starting with a pulse of energy that's too messy to really get excited about, then a long dry spell, before a glimmer of hope shows up in the second week. Here's the full rundown.

We kick off this Sunday, the 12th of July, with a solid 8ft swell from the south, and the ocean is just pumping with energy (2059). But don't get your hopes up too high, because the wind is a cross-on at 3 mph, and it's enough to put a bit of chop on the surface. The water temp is sitting at 79°, and that's a good 3° cooler than average for this time of year, so you'll feel the difference. That swell is coming from the south, but the optimum direction for Takanabe is from the southeast, so it's not lined up perfectly. The period is 13 seconds, so there's some decent groundswell in there, but with the conditions the way they are, it's a bit of a struggle. The afternoon gets worse, with the wind picking up to 12 mph and the quality dropping off.

By Monday morning the 13th, the swell has dropped to 5ft, and the energy has backed right off (493). The wind is glassy, which is a huge positive, and the waves will be clean, but the size is just okay. The cool water is still a factor. The south swell direction is still not ideal. This is a surfable session, but nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a real flat spell. From Tuesday the 14th through to Saturday the 18th, the swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wave energy is in the weak range (45 to 70). The wind is occasionally glassy in the mornings, but the waves are just too small to bother with. You'll be looking at a lot of flat, glassy water. It's a proper lull.

Now, there's a bit of a tease on Saturday the 18th. The swell starts to build again in the afternoon, hitting 4ft from the east-southeast, and the period jumps to 15 seconds – that's proper long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate (975). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it's not perfect, but it's a sign of life. The 15-second period means the waves will be powerful and have long lulls, but at a point break like Takanabe, it could actually shape up okay. The water is still cool.

The real standout, and this is the one to circle on your calendar, is Wednesday the 22nd of July. The morning looks like the pick of the entire forecast. The swell is a solid 4ft from the east-southeast, with a good 10-second period, and the energy is moderate (529). More importantly, the wind is glassy – dead calm. The waves will be clean, smooth, and have some decent push. The direction is a far better match for the break's optimum southeast angle. The water temp is still a bit cool, but who cares when the waves are this good? It's a bit small for experts, but perfect for a fun mid-week session. The afternoon gets a bit onshore, so get it while it's good. This is the best on offer, no question.

After that, Thursday the 23rd has another glassy morning with 4ft swell, but it's a touch smaller and the energy is a bit less (423). It's still a good option, but Wednesday is the winner.

The end of the forecast gets a bit messy again with rain and onshore winds from the 25th onwards, but that Wednesday morning is a genuine highlight. It's a long way out, so don't treat it as a guarantee, but the signs are promising. For now, the first week is a write-off, but the second week has a real diamond in the rough.

Rusty, signing off.

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