Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.

We are looking at Takanabe. This spot is exposed to a SE swell, and the optimum swell direction is also SE, so that's a great match. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The overall pattern? We start with a bit of a slow burner, then get a massive pulse of energy that's way too big for this beginner-friendly break, and then it takes a while to settle back down into something surfable. The first few days are small but have potential. Monday the 6th is just a warm-up; we've got a 2 ft to 2 ft SE swell pushing in with a very long 17-18 second period. The energy is moderate (192 to 277), and the cross-off wind keeps it clean. It's surfable, but not really a standout.

Now, Tuesday morning the 7th is where it gets interesting. The swell jumps to 5 ft from the SE, still with a solid 14-second period, and the energy is building (673). The real kicker is the wind: it's glassy, dead calm from the NE. That means absolute perfection on the faces. The water will be like a mirror. This is the best on offer for the average surfer early on. The swell is clean, and the conditions are going to be special.

Tuesday afternoon gets a bit messy with an onshore wind, and the swell pushes to 5 ft with a 15-second period. The energy spikes to 1085, but the wind is on it, so it's a bit of a gamble.

Then Wednesday the 8th morning, the swell jumps to 8 ft from the SE with an 18-second period. The energy is massive (4191). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – the power is there, the shape will be there with that long period – but it's getting too big for beginners. The wind is a clean cross-off, so the conditions are good. This is the first true standout for the crew who can handle it.

From Wednesday afternoon, the swell just keeps getting bigger. It hits 10 ft, then 12 ft, and peaks at 15 ft on Friday the 10th. The energy numbers are off the charts, hitting 12249. The reports say the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a beach break setup, this is going to be a washing machine. Honestly, for the experienced paddler, it's going to be a challenge, but for the average surfer or beginner, it's a no-go. This size, with a 17-18 second period, is going to be a wall of whitewater. It's likely more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing at this point.

The swell finally drops over the weekend, but it stays messy. Sunday the 12th has a 7 ft SSE swell with a 13-second period, but cross-on winds and questionable conditions. The energy is still high (1450), but it's not clean.

We then hit a dry spell. Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th, the swell drops and the conditions are poor. The energy is weak (under 700), and the wind is a cross-shore chop. Nothing to get excited about. There's a gap of poor surf here.

Wednesday the 15th, the swell ramps up again to 10 ft and then 13 ft from the E with a moderate period (10-11 seconds). The energy is strong again (1818 to 6676), but again, it's too big for the break. The wind is clean cross-off, but the size is the problem. Another day for the experts only, or the kite crew.

Looking further ahead, Thursday the 16th morning brings a nice drop in swell to 6 ft from the ESE. The period is short, 9 seconds, but the wind is glassy. The energy is moderate (788). This is a promising window for clean, smaller waves. Friday the 17th morning is similar with 4 ft and glassy conditions. These are the best bets for the second week if you want a manageable, clean session.

The run continues into the 18th with 7 ft ESE swell, but the winds are a bit cross-shore, making it less clean. The energy is moderate (1074). The outlook then gets a bit windier and more unsettled from the 19th onwards, with showers and stronger winds keeping the surface choppy. The last standout to mention is Tuesday the 21st morning. The swell is back to a clean 5 ft from the E with a 12-second period, and the wind is dead calm, glassy. The energy is moderate (669). It's a long way out, but it looks like a nice, clean end to the run.

To wrap it up: the absolute best session is Tuesday morning the 7th with that glassy 5 ft SE swell. For the experienced surfer, Wednesday morning the 8th is the one to circle for the power. For the second week, keep an eye on Thursday the 16th morning and Friday the 17th morning for clean, smaller waves. The big stuff in between is for the die-hards.

Rusty.

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