Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s see what we’ve got lined up for Takanabe over the next couple of weeks. Right now, it’s pretty quiet, with a few days of small, messy waves and onshore winds that aren’t doing us any favours. We’ve got a run of “poor surf conditions” through to the 20th, with tiny swell around 2ft to 3ft and weak energy (86 to 209). But hold onto your board shorts, because things look set to fire up proper towards the end of the month.

The first real highlight is Friday the 21st morning—that’s the standout in the near term. We’ve got a clean, glassy start with a 4ft swell from the south, period at 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 257 (moderate). Winds are glass, so expect some super clean lines. After that, it drops right back into marginal territory until a major pulse of long-period groundswell arrives on the 24th.

Now, the big story is from Monday the 24th onwards. That’s when a serious, powerful swell starts to build. Monday afternoon brings 5ft from the SE with a 16-second period and energy of 1020 (strong). By Tuesday the 25th morning, we’re looking at 8ft SE at 16 seconds, energy a whopping 3773, and cross-shore winds. This is getting into expert-only territory. It keeps pumping up to 10ft and then 12ft on Wednesday the 26th, with the biggest day being Thursday the 27th: a massive 15ft from the SE at 16 seconds and energy of 10,266 (very strong). The wind on Thursday morning is glassy—absolutely pristine conditions—but for Takanabe, this is way too big. The data says “better for kitesurfing” at this size, which makes sense for a beach break when it’s that powerful.

The best actual surfable window for experienced surfers looks like Saturday the 29th morning. The swell has dropped to 8ft from the SSE, still a long 13-second period, but with glassy offshore winds and an excellent conditions rating. The energy is still strong at 2725, but it’s no longer a washing machine. That’s the second true standout.

Keep in mind, water temp is sitting at 83°F right now, which is about average for this time of year, so you’re good in just boardies.

To sum up: The first week is mostly a write-off, with the one good session on Friday the 21st morning. The second week is all about massive, powerful groundswell—great for the look of it, but mostly too big for Takanabe until it backs off to around 8ft on Saturday the 29th. That Saturday morning with glassy conditions is your best bet for a memorable session.

Stay stoked,
Rusty.

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