Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a slow start on our hands at Takanabe. The first week is pretty ordinary, but there’s a solid pulse of energy building for the final days of August that’s got my attention. The water temp is sitting right on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Right now and through the next several days, it’s mostly small, weak surf with combined energy readings hanging around 100–200 (moderate wave energy). The swell is coming from the east with short periods around 8–10 seconds, so the waves are mushy and lack punch. Winds are light but often onshore or cross-onshore, so conditions are messy. Thursday morning the 20th sees a slight uptick with a 3ft SSE swell and a combined energy of 266 (moderate wave energy), but the cross-shore wind keeps it average. Friday the 21st morning bumps up to 6ft from the south, period 10 seconds, with 670 combined energy (moderate to strong), but it’s still only marginal. The real bright spot that day is Friday afternoon – 5ft south swell, glassy wind, combined energy 472 (moderate wave energy). That’s your best wave of the first week: clean, rideable, and worth a paddle. Saturday morning the 22nd also offers glassy conditions with 4ft south swell, but it’s smaller.

Then we hit a lull. Sunday the 23rd through Monday the 24th drops right off – small, weak, and choppy. Not worth chasing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 25th of August morning, a proper groundswell arrives: 4ft from the southeast with a long 14-second period and combined energy of 643 (moderate to strong wave energy). Winds are glassy, so the waves will be clean and well-shaped. That’s a standout session – the best on offer in the entire outlook. The swell direction from the southeast matches Takanabe’s optimum southeast swell, so it’s lining up perfectly. Crowds can be an issue here at times, so get in early.

Wednesday the 26th morning holds 5ft southeast swell at 13 seconds, combined energy 1594 (strong wave energy), but the wind goes cross-onshore, making it a bit bumpy. Wednesday afternoon jumps to 7ft at 15 seconds with 2133 combined energy (strong), still cross-onshore – big, long-period swell, but the wind takes the shine off. Thursday the 27th morning sees 8ft southeast swell with a very long 16-second period and combined energy 3465 (strong), and a clean cross-offshore wind from the north-northeast. That’s expert territory – too big for beginners, but for experienced surfers, that’s a session to mark on the calendar. Thursday afternoon the swell hits 10ft at 15 seconds with 3648 combined energy (strong) – but it’s predicted to be too big for Takanabe, so I’d be cautious. The same goes for Friday the 28th morning: 10ft at 15 seconds, clean wind, but just too much water moving for this spot.

After that, conditions deteriorate quickly. Friday afternoon and into the weekend, the wind cranks up hard – Friday afternoon sees 40 km/h cross-shore winds with 10ft swell (4795 combined energy, strong to very strong), and it gets worse from there. Saturday the 29th is gale-force onshore winds and 13ft swell (7268 combined energy, very strong) – completely blown out, dangerous, and not for paddling. Sunday the 30th stays huge at 16–18ft with combined energy over 10,000 (very strong), and even though winds are lighter, it’s still too big for the break. Monday the 31st morning drops to 13ft with glassy wind and combined energy 7322 (very strong), but again, it’s just too big for Takanabe. The afternoon of the 31st sees 8ft from the east with 2836 combined energy (strong), but the cross-onshore wind spoils it.

So the standout to chase is Tuesday the 25th of August morning – that clean, long-period southeast groundswell is the pick of the fortnight. Thursday the 27th morning is the one for experts only, with big, clean, powerful swell. The rest of the second week is either too big, too windy, or both. If you’re a kite surfer, that big windy stretch from the 28th onward might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a miss.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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