Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it, folks. The next couple of weeks here are a bit of a wild ride, so let’s lay it out.

Right now, the surf is flat and messy. Water temp is around 84°F, which is about standard for this time of year. No real dramas, but nothing to ride, either. The first few days are looking pretty grim, with a lot of onshore junk and tiny, weak swell. It’s a quiet start.

We get a little bump over the weekend, but it’s weak sauce. Saturday morning offers some clean, glassy conditions with a small 3ft SSE swell, but it’s pretty ordinary – you might snag a quick one, but it’s nothing to shout about. The wind is light, but the swell is just too small.

Monday the 31st sees a slightly better 4ft SSE groundswell, but the cross-shore wind makes it choppy. It stays marginal through Tuesday as the swell builds to 7ft, but the onshore breeze is going to rip it apart.

Then things get heavy. From Wednesday the 2nd of September, the ocean wakes up. A solid 12ft SSE swell moves in, but it’s paired with strong onshore winds and storm risk. The wave energy is enormous, we’re talking over 2700 on the dial. This is big and raw, not for the faint of heart. It’s too big for most, and only the experienced should even consider it, and even then, it’s going to be a battle.

The swell stays huge and messy for days, with 10ft sets and persistent onshore winds. It’s just not clean for paddle surfing. This kind of size and wind is more for the kite surfers than anyone else. We finally get a drop and some cleaner lines on the 6th and 7th, with 6-6ft ESE swell, but it’s still mixed up.

A glimmer of hope comes on the 9th of September. Wednesday morning has a light cross-offshore breeze with a small 3ft S swell and the forecast looks clean. It’s small, but it might be the best we’ve had in a week. The afternoon looks even better – totally glassy with a 3ft E swell. This is the kind of clean, small surf you can have some fun on.

But the onshores return the next day, and the surf drops right back down to nothing.

Now, the big one. Look ahead to the 12th of September, Saturday morning. The forecast is for a monstrous 15ft ESE groundswell with an 18-second period. The energy is astronomical – 13542! This is a huge, powerful swell. The wind is only gentle and cross-onshore, which is the best we’ve seen for a while with this kind of size. However, the forecast notes say it’s expected to be too big for Takanabe. This is a serious, expert-only situation. If you’re a charger who knows this break, this is your day. But for the rest of us, this will be way out of our league.

So, there’s not much to get excited about in the short term. The real action is a week and a half away, with that monster swell on the 12th. It’s promising, but those long-range calls are always a gamble. If it cleans up, it could be one for the ages. But for now, keep your board handy and be ready to wait.

Rusty.

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