Takanabe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag for our stretch of coast. We’ve got a slow start, a couple of windows that look promising, but we also have to watch out for a proper swell event that’s going to blow things out for a while. Patience is key.

The first real chance for a wave comes up on Sunday morning, the 16th. It’s not big, just a clean 3ft of east swell, but the wind is glassy with a bit of a SE touch. The water’s sitting at a normal 83°, so nothing unusual there. It’s a gentle start. The energy is moderate at best (235), but that’s fine for a beginner wave. It’s a spot that’s inconsistent, so you have to pick your moments. Don’t expect much from the afternoons.

Monday morning, the 17th, is the next one to look at. The wind drops to nothing, glassy as can be, and the swell bumps up just slightly to 3ft from the east. The energy is still moderate (234). It’s a clean, small morning that would be fun on a longboard. The consistency is still a bit hit-or-miss, but that early session is about as good as it gets in this quiet spell.

After that, we go into a bit of a lull. From Monday afternoon right through to Thursday the 20th, it’s mostly small, weak, and messy. There’s nothing worth getting excited about. The swell stays under 3ft and the wind is all over the place, mostly cross-shore or cross-on. You’d be fighting it more than riding it.

Now, things start to get interesting on Friday the 21st. The swell starts to fill in from the south, jumping to 5ft in the morning with an 11-second period. The energy is ramping up quite a bit (669), but the wind is still annoying, light and cross-onshore. It’s marginal at best. The next few days, through to the 23rd, keep this frustrating pattern: more energy coming in, but the wind and occasional storms keep the surf poor. You’ll see it on the cam and just shake your head.

The big change comes on Monday the 24th. A proper long-period swell from the ESE shows up, with a 16-second period. The size is moderate, around 5ft in the morning, pushing to 6ft by the afternoon, but the energy is now strong (1025 and 1420). The problem is the onshore wind messing with the surface. It’s still a bit rough, but you can feel the power is there. This is the one to watch.

And then, Tuesday the 25th is the standout. The wind goes dead calm, completely glassy. The swell is a solid 8ft in the morning, holding at 8ft in the afternoon, and the period is that juicy 16 seconds. The energy is very strong (2779 and 3343). This is proper groundswell. This one’s for experienced surfers, no doubt, as it’s over the 8ft mark in the afternoon. This is the day. It’s a point or reef kind of wave with that long period, so it could get a bit straight at the beachbreaks, but if you know where to go, it should be firing. A few days later, on the 31st, there’s another window with a 8ft ESE swell and light offshore NNE wind in the morning. It’s promising, but that’s a long way out, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

The big issue is the tail end of the window. From the 27th onward, the swell just gets massive and the wind turns nasty. By the 28th and 29th, we are talking 15ft to 40ft of swell. The energy readings are off the charts (10010 to 80106). This is not surfable, it’s a washing machine, and it’s more interesting for the kite crew than anyone with a paddle. The 30th is still way too big and messy.

So, in short: get on Tuesday the 25th. That’s the one. The Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are small but clean if you’re a beginner. The rest is either flat, poor, or too big.

Rusty.

Read more