Nomozaki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s be straight up: the surf outlook for Nomozaki over the next 16 days is pretty grim. There’s a run of tiny, weak swell that just won’t get it done, and honestly, the first proper chance to even think about a paddle doesn’t show up until well into the second week. It’s a long, quiet stretch, so don’t be holding your breath.

The first glimmer shows up around Thursday the 3rd, but it’s a tease. We’ve got a 1 ft swell from the SSW with a period of 10 seconds. The water temp sits at 85°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nice for the swim, but not helping the surf. The combined energy is weak at just 45. The winds early on the 3rd are offshore from the ENE at 3 mph, glassy calm in the morning. But the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. It’s just too small and weak.

The pattern holds all the way through to the middle of September. From the 3rd to the 12th, we’re looking at swells between 0.3 ft and 1 ft. The wind often blows offshore or cross-offshore, keeping it clean, but with combined energy values barely reaching double digits – often as low as 1 – there’s just no push. Short periods of 8 or 9 seconds mean the waves will be fat and gutless. Even when it’s glassy on the morning of the 13th with a 1 ft SSW swell and 4-second period, the energy sits at just 5. It’s a lake out there.

The only real standout – and I use the term loosely – arrives on Wednesday the 16th. A 2 ft swell from the S, with a period of 5 seconds, pops up. The combined energy bumps to 26, which is at least a step up from the flatness. But here’s the catch: winds are cross-shore from the SE at 12 mph, bringing a cross-chop. The break rarely breaks and is inconsistent, so you’d need to be very patient and local to find anything rideable. The swell direction at S doesn’t match the optimum of S, but it’s close enough. Still, with the small size and short period, it’s a long shot.

After that, it fades back to nearly nothing: 0.3 ft to 2 ft swells with weak energy through the 17th and 18th. The water’s warm, the wind’s often clean, but there’s simply no surf on offer that’s worth chasing.

If you’re desperate for a paddle, the morning of the 13th might give you a tiny glassy bump, and the 16th has the biggest swell, but honestly, neither is going to give you a proper wave. For a break that rarely breaks, this sort of blank run is pretty typical for the area. Don’t stress – forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a solid no-go.

Rusty.

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