Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cookin’ at Cape Toi.

Right off the bat, the next week and a half is a bit of a slow dance. The swell is tiny, about 1 ft to 2 ft, and it’s coming from the SE. The good news is that the wind is often light or offshore, and we get some glassy mornings. Saturday the 25th, Sunday the 26th, and Monday the 27th of July all have those clean, glassy windows, but with that weak wave energy (combined energy of all swells directed here hanging around 62 to 110), it’s just not enough to get excited about. The crowds are possible here, but with waves this small, you’ll have the place mostly to yourself. Honestly, it’s a bit of a flat spell for the first week.

Now, hold onto your board. The real story kicks off Monday the 3rd of August. We see a pulse of energy arrive. The morning of the 3rd is glassy, with a 3 ft swell from the ESE at a 12-second period. The combined energy of all swells directed here jumps to 377, which is a solid moderate energy. It’s ’expect good surf conditions’ by this point, and that offshore wind from the ESE will have it looking clean.

But the standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning session is going to be absolutely firing. We’re looking at a 8 ft swell from the ESE with a 17-second period – that’s a proper groundswell with serious energy (3303). The wind is glassy, and the conditions are labeled excellent for experienced surfers. This is a big, powerful, clean swell. Just a heads up, at 8 ft, it’s only for the crew who know what they’re doing. The period is well over 15 seconds, so those sets will be long and powerful, with plenty of time between them to paddle out. It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely.

The following day, Wednesday the 5th of August, things get even bigger. The morning shows a 13 ft swell from the E at 18 seconds (combined energy of all swells directed here is a massive 9822). That’s a very strong energy. The wind is a light cross-shore, which is manageable. This is serious, big-wave territory. Over 8 ft, it’s experts only. The afternoon bumps up to 15 ft. Then Thursday the 6th of August, the forecast is predicting a massive 20 ft swell. The wind is glassy again in the morning, but the model is telling us it’s predicted to be too big for this break. At that size, the reef might be closing out or just dangerous. It’s something to watch, but for now, the 4th and 5th are the real standouts.

After that big pulse, it settles down. Friday the 7th of August morning has a clean 4 ft swell from the ENE, which is a nice drop-off. The weekend of the 8th and 9th of August goes back to small, weak surf with onshore winds, so the window closes.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a washout. The second week delivers a powerful, very long-period groundswell. Tuesday the 4th of August morning is the golden ticket for experienced surfers. Wednesday the 5th is for the big-wave chargers only. It’s a promising forecast, but that far out, treat it with a bit of caution.

Rusty.

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