Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s talk shop. It’s been a bit of a flat, frustrating stretch here lately, but the long-range charts are finally starting to show some life. Keep the faith, because there’s a solid window coming up, but you’re gonna have to be patient.

The next week is honestly a bit of a write-off for Cape Toi (Miyazaki). We’ve got waves, sure, but the wind is almost constantly blowing onshore or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. This week is all about small, weak, and choppy surf. The combined energy is mostly weak, sitting in the low to mid 100s to 200s, which is just not enough push to overcome that breeze. We’ve got a couple of days with storm clouds and a risk of thunderstorms, but the swell stays small and the wind is just going to ruin it. The water temp is sitting at 83.3°F, which is dead average for this time of year, so no drama there.

The gap between the current poor surf and the good stuff is about three to four days. From the 22nd to the 23rd, it’s just tiny leftovers, with energy dropping into the double digits and a messy, weak wind swell. It’s a real grind.

Then, things start to shift. On Monday the 24th, the morning is looking glassy with the energy starting to build. We’re still only seeing about 2ft of swell, but that ESE direction is lining up. The energy jumps to a moderate 424, a good sign.

But the real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Tuesday the 25th. This is the day. The morning shows a solid 8ft of ESE groundswell with a 16-second period, which is proper groundswell. The wind goes glassy, and the energy reading is a massive 3273, signalling some serious power. This is big, clean, and powerful surf—a proper winter-style day in the middle of summer. It’s going to be a heavy, lined-up reef wave, and definitely for experienced surfers only. That size will push it well past beginner territory.

The day after, Wednesday the 26th, is still a great option. It’s pulling back a bit to a still-chunky 6ft, but it’s still got that clean, glassy morning with a 13-second period. Energy is still strong at 1213. Another good day for the more confident surfer.

After that, the swell starts to fade through the end of the month. Thursday the 27th is okay in the morning but the wind turns against us. Then it drops right off again. The last few days of the month see small waves return, but with cleaner, offshore winds in the mornings. That Sunday the 30th morning has a clean 2ft with a NW offshore breeze, but it’s nothing to get too excited about after the big days.

So, bottom line: the next week is a waste of time. But circle Tuesday the 25th on your calendar. That’s the one. A proper, powerful groundswell with perfect conditions. Big, clean Cape Toi at its best. Promise me you’ll be there.

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