Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've got your local surf outlook for Cape Toi. To be straight with you, the next week and a half is looking pretty ordinary. We've got a long stretch of small, weak swell with only a few brief windows of clean conditions. The real action doesn't show up until the very end of the first week of August, and that's a proper, big swell event, but it comes with some serious caveats.

Right now, through to the end of July, it's a waiting game. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and from the east or southeast. The combined wave energy is weak, under 200 (117) for the most part, so there's not much punch. The water temperature is a warm 83°F, which is about average for this time of year.

The first real chance of a surf comes on Wednesday morning, July 22nd. Cape Toi will see a small 3 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 11 seconds. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, which will keep the surface clean. The wave energy is moderate (194). It's surfable, but the waves are just okay – nothing to write home about. Thursday morning, July 23rd, is another one to watch. The swell drops to 2 ft, but the wind goes glassy from the WSW at 3 mph. It would be a beautiful, clean morning for a longboard, even if the waves are small. The energy is still moderate (119). Friday morning, July 24th, is also glassy with a 2 ft easterly swell (135), but again, it's tiny.

Saturday morning, July 26th, and Sunday morning, July 27th, both offer glassy conditions with a 1 ft and 2 ft southeast swell, but the energy is dropping (62 and 103). It's a real struggle for any kind of rideable wave.

Then we hit the end of the month. On Friday, August 1st, the southeast swell starts to build. Saturday morning, August 1st, sees a 6 ft southeast swell with a 13-second period and a strong cross-offshore wind from the NNE at 25 mph. The wave energy jumps to 1336. This is a big, powerful groundswell. The wind is clean, but the swell is over 5 ft, so it's not for beginners. The real standout is Sunday morning, August 2nd. The southeast swell is 8 ft at 14 seconds, with moderate cross-shore wind from the SSW at 16 mph. The energy is huge (2974). This is a serious, expert-only swell. The period is long, so at a reef break like Cape Toi, it could be holding up well, but the wind is a bit messy. The afternoon on Sunday is even bigger, 10 ft, but the wind turns cross-onshore, making it choppy. The raw energy is massive (3616).

After that, it goes wild. Monday, August 4th, morning has a 13 ft southeast swell, but with a strong onshore wind, it's just a mess. The energy is off the charts (6654), but the conditions are poor. The outlook for the next few days is much the same: huge swell, but blown out by strong onshore winds. It's a classic case of big, raw power, but no quality. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, your best bet? The standout is Sunday morning, August 2nd at Cape Toi. The swell is solid, 8 ft from the southeast, and while the wind is cross-shore, the conditions are manageable for an expert. That's the one to circle. The Saturday morning, August 1st, is a close second with cleaner wind but a slightly smaller swell. For the rest of the period, it's either too small or too blown out to be any good.

Rusty

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