Surf Forecasts:
Cape Toi surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 16 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 14s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 9s period, ESE swell with 397 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 13 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 14s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Toi this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Toi over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Toi in the next 16 days are 1.6m 9s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Friday (Sep 11) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (JST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Sun 13th Sep) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Tue 15th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Toi over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, it's Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on offer for Cape Toi over the next couple of weeks.
To be straight with you, the start of the outlook is a tough slog. We've got a fair gap here with no real surf to speak of from Thursday the 10th through to the following week. The wind is mostly cross or onshore, and the swell is small and messy. You'll be staring at a lot of cross-chop and poor conditions. There's a few mornings with a cleaner cross-off breeze, but the swell is just too weak or short-period to get excited about. On Friday the 11th morning, there's a clean 4ft SE swell with a 8-second period, but it's still a poor surf call. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real glimmer of hope comes on Wednesday the 18th, but it's a mixed bag. The swell jumps up, but the wind is messy. The stand-out moment, and I mean the one that'll get the heart pumping, is the morning of Sunday the 20th. The combined energy is a massive 17579 (strong to very strong), with a 18ft SE swell, period of 16 seconds – that's a very long-period groundswell. The problem is, the wind is a fresh cross-shore lumpy mess, and the guidance says the swell is too big for this break. This is expert territory, and even then, it's going to be a wild, dangerous beast. For the average punter, this is a stay-on-the-beach-and-watch day.
The following Monday the 21st is even bigger. We're looking at 34ft to 38ft SE swells, with periods of 16 seconds. The energy reading is off the charts (105627 and 111317). Again, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the break is simply not going to handle it. This is beyond dangerous.
After that, the swell drops off a cliff, but the wind turns nasty. Tuesday the 22nd sees a near gale and severe gale from the SE and SSE, making it a complete write-off. By Wednesday the 23rd, the wind swings to the NW, giving us a clean offshore breeze, but the swell is tiny, down to 2ft, with a weak 8-second period. The energy is a paltry 39 (weak). The rest of the week into the 25th is just small, weak, and cross-shore.
So, the only true standout here is the morning of Sunday the 20th, but it's a big, daunting, expert-only beast. For everyone else, we're looking at a long, blank run. The surf just isn't playing ball for Cape Toi in this window.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Warm (max 28°C on Sun morning, min 24°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 31mm), heaviest during Wed morning. Warm (max 28°C on Sun afternoon, min 23°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | NE 7 | SE 7 | SE 7 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | E 9 | ENE 14 | ENE 14 | ENE 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 278 | 131 | 115 | 140 | 97 | 142 | 144 | 239 | 184 | 173 | 197 | 199 | 243 | 388 | 322 | 327 | 246 | 269 | 273 | 178 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 6:00PM2.02m | 5:50AM2.06m | 6:26PM2.05m | 6:30AM2.09m | 6:51PM2.05m | 7:09AM2.05m | 7:15PM2.02m | 7:46AM1.97m | 7:38PM1.97m | 8:23AM1.85m | 8:00PM1.90m | 9:02AM1.71m | 8:22PM1.81m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:55PM0.58m | 12:11PM0.22m | 00:28AM0.44m | 12:44PM0.32m | 1:00AM0.35m | 1:14PM0.46m | 1:31AM0.31m | 1:42PM0.62m | 2:03AM0.33m | 2:08PM0.78m | 2:35AM0.39m | 2:33PM0.94m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | |  |  | | |  | | |
 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — |
 | 6:28 | — | — | 6:25 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:23 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:21 | — | — | 6:20 | — |
mm | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 25 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
Feels °C | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | SE 7 | SE 7 | SE 7 | SE 7 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | E 9 | E 9 | ESE 9 | E 9 |
| kJ | 91 | 75 | 115 | 140 | 67 | 142 | 144 | 239 | 184 | 68 | 197 | 199 | 243 | 388 | 322 | 327 | 246 | 240 | 177 | 165 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SE 9 | E 15 | E 15 | ENE 8 | SSE 7 | SE 6 | S 6 | ESE 9 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 14 | ENE 14 | ENE 14 | ENE 13 |
| kJ | 11 | 21 | 69 | 116 | 51 | 29 | 18 | 21 | 45 | 173 | 167 | 168 | 166 | 78 | 144 | 72 | 138 | 269 | 273 | 178 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | E 15 | S 7 | ENE 9 | E 14 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | NE 7 | S 6 | S 6 | S 7 | S 7 | S 7 | ENE 16 | S 7 | ENE 15 | S 6 | SW 9 | SW 10 | S 6 |
| kJ | 15 | 70 | 4 | 16 | 97 | 19 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | NE 7 | NE 5 | NE 5 | — | NE 7 | NE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 5 | ENE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | ENE 4 |
| kJ | 278 | 131 | 62 | 27 | — | 39 | 42 | 22 | 10 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 25 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Kyu Shu | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Japan | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Toi Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Toi provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Toi can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Toi surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Toi) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Toi may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Toi is 15 km (9 miles) from Kushima. If you plan a holiday in Kyu Shu, look for hotels and other accommodation in Kushima. Kushima has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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