Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and quiet around here, but there’s a solid window of opportunity if you’re willing to wait.

Right now, and for the next few days, it’s pretty much a write-off. We’ve got tiny swell and winds that are all over the place, so you’re not missing much. The weekend of the 4th and 5th of July is flat and uninspiring. That carries on through Monday the 6th, where we see a little bump in swell, but it’s still weak with combined energy sitting at just 168. Not worth suiting up for.

The real action starts to develop on Tuesday, July 7th. That’s our standout window. Cape Toi wakes up with a clean morning forecast: a nice 4 ft swell from the southeast, and the wind is a light north-northwesterly – that’s cross-offshore, so it’ll groom the surface nicely. The period is 14 seconds, so there’s some proper groundswell energy behind it. The combined energy reads 916 – that’s moderate wave energy, but it’ll feel solid. The water temp is about average for this time of year. A good session for intermediate crew.

Tuesday afternoon sees the swell jump to 6 ft from the southeast, period hitting 16 seconds, but the wind swings northeast and picks up to 12 mph, putting a bit of cross-chop on it. The energy jumps to 1793, so the ocean’s got some power, but the surface gets a bit ragged as the day goes on. Still, the morning is where it’s at.

Wednesday the 8th is for experts only. We’re looking at 10 ft to 12 ft swell with 18-second periods – that’s very long period groundswell. That much water moving is serious, but the winds shift onshore (east), and the combined energy rockets up to 6855. That’s strong wave energy, but with the cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a messy, choppy beast. Not a beginner’s day, and even advanced surfers will need to pick their moments. This long-period swell at a reef break like Cape Toi can produce some legit walls, but the wind will make it tricky.

After that, things fade fast. From Thursday the 9th through the following week, we’re back to tiny, weak swell and mostly poor conditions. There’s a flicker of hope on Thursday the 16th of July morning, with 2 ft swell and clean cross-off winds, but it’s barely surfable. The energy is only 59.

If you’re a dedicated local, you pencil in Tuesday, July 7th, early. That’s the best bet by far. The rest of the window is mostly a wait-and-see. There’s a long gap of flatness after Wednesday the 8th, so don’t hold your breath for anything else.

Crowds at Cape Toi can be a thing, especially on a clean day, so be ready to share the peak.

Rusty.

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