Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’re looking at a stretch of pretty quiet surf for Cape Toi before the big stuff kicks in, but it’s a long wait. This break is a reef setup, exposed to the swell, but it’s inconsistent – it doesn’t just fire all the time.

Alright, the good news… it’s not going to stay flat forever but we’ve got a solid gap. The first few days, from now into the start of August, are tiny and ordinary. There are a few mornings with tiny 2ft swell from the SE, and on Monday the 27th of July, early conditions are glassy, calm wind, but the energy is weak (103). The water temp is about 84°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year – the anomaly is only 0.7°F, so nothing unusual there. But honestly, the swell is just too small and period is only 10 seconds. It’s surfable but not worth getting excited about. There’s a similar scenario on Tuesday morning the 28th with 2ft from the SE and a light cross-off breeze that’ll keep it clean, but again, tiny. Then Wednesday morning the 29th holds 2ft from the ESE, also clean, but still small. After that, it’s a whole lot of nothing – mostly 1.0 to 1ft conditions with occasional offshore or glassy mornings, but the wave energy is well under 100, and that’s just not enough to push a reef properly. That run of quiet conditions hangs around right up to Saturday the 1st of August.

Then we get a small uptick. On Sunday morning the 2nd of August, there’s a tiny 1.0ft from the ENE but the period jumps to 17 seconds – very long period groundswell. The energy is still a bit weak (94) but it’s interesting. The glassy conditions are a bonus. This isn’t a standout but it’s a hint of what’s coming.

Now, the first real standout. Monday the 3rd of August morning sees proper swell arrive: 4ft from the east, period 14 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (658). Winds are light and cross-shore, which will leave a few bumps, but it’s still surfable. The difficulty is intermediate at this break, and this size is okay for that level. This is a good option, but not the absolute best of the window.

The next standout, and the one I’d circle, is Wednesday morning the 5th of August. You’re looking at 10ft from the east with a 17 second period – that’s a serious groundswell with very long period. The combined energy is huge (5088). Winds are absolutely glassy, calm. For an expert surfer, this is where the reef at Cape Toi really shines. It will be big, powerful, and clean. Crowds can sometimes be an issue here, but with a 10ft east swell, you can expect only the keenest out. This is the best on offer. It’s too big for beginners. The swell direction from the east matches the optimum swell direction from the northeast pretty well – it’s close enough to wrap in nicely.

After that, Thursday the 6th of August morning is also excellent: 10ft from the east again, 16 seconds, energy around 5076, and a light cross-off breeze from the north delivering clean waves. Also a top pick for experienced surfers.

We’ve then got huge swell pushing through. Friday the 7th of August morning sees 15ft from the east, period 17 seconds, huge energy (12170). That’s massive – likely too big for all but the most experienced and may close out. Friday afternoon pushes even bigger. Saturday the 8th of August morning hits a massive 28ft from the east with 19 seconds, incredible energy (52547) and glassy winds. This is colossal. It’s going to be a dangerous, heavy paddle. Expert only. Honestly, if the reef lines up right, the shape could be incredible, but it’s also getting near the limit of what’s surfable there.

By Sunday morning the 9th of August, it drops back to 16ft from the ENE, still glassy, still huge and powerful. That’s another proper day for experts.

Then it eases. Monday morning the 10th of August offers 6ft from the east, 12 seconds, glassy conditions. That’s a beautiful drop in size – excellent for experienced surfers. The energy is moderate (1005). That’s a great session if you missed the biggest days.

The very end of the window has some smaller, cleaner mornings, but nothing that matches that big run from the 5th to the 9th.

Rusty.

Read more