Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a look at the Cape Toi forecast. Let’s be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch for this reef break on the exposed coast. The overall pattern is a long, frustrating run of poor conditions, with only a couple of very brief windows that might get you a few waves.

We start off with a real mess. From Wednesday the 26th of August through to the start of September, it’s a write-off. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and it’s strong. You’re looking at heavy, lumpy, and choppy surf, with waves around 0.7 ft to 7 ft, but the quality is just not there. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate at best, hitting 938 during the early part, but it’s all blown out. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, but that’s the only good news.

The only real standout in this whole outlook is a freak event on the 3rd of September. It’s still a week away, so keep that in mind, but it’s the closest thing to a proper session. The morning shows a solid 16 ft swell from the SE, with a long period of 11 seconds, giving the place a massive 5608 combined energy rating. That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, which is workable, but this swell is going to be huge. Cape Toi can handle it, but if you’re not an expert, stay well away. This is for advanced surfers only. The afternoon looks cleaner, but the wave data is missing, so it’s a gamble.

Before that, you get a tiny, glassy window on Sunday morning the 30th of August. Swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the east, with a period of 12 seconds and a combined energy of just 96. It’s not much, but the wind is glassy, and that’s a huge positive. You’ll be on a longboard, scratching for knee-high runners, but it’s the only clean surf you’ll see in the first week. The break is inconsistent at the best of times, so that window is a real lottery.

After the 3rd of September, it falls apart again. The wind swings back to strong cross-onshore, and the swell turns into a messy, blown-out mix of wind swell and leftover groundswell. The 7th of September brings another massive swell of 18 ft from the east, but it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore wind, making it dangerous and unrideable. The combined energy of 8233 is intimidating, but it’s a total loss for paddle surfing.

So, to sum it up: Cape Toi has a long, lean forecast. The only real hope is the 3rd of September for the big-swell crew, or the 30th of August for the desperate and the longboarders. Everything else is either too small, too blown out, or too big with bad wind. It’s a tough outlook.

Stay safe, keep an eye on that date for the 3rd of September, and don’t get your hopes up too high.

Rusty.

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