Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the surf forecast for Cape Toi. This is a reef setup that's exposed to the swell, but it's pretty inconsistent, so we need the stars to align.

The water is sitting at 85°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – you'll be comfortable in just a spring suit.

We start off pretty flat. The first couple of days are a write-off with poor surf conditions and tiny, weak waves. The real story begins on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning session is where it's at. We've got a solid 2ft swell coming from the ESE with a very long period of 16 seconds. That's proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a strong 320, so there's some punch. The wind is a light offshore from the NW, making things glassy and clean. It's a bit of a tease, because the afternoon goes cross-onshore and messy.

Monday the 3rd of August sees the swell picking up to 5ft, again from the ESE with a 16 second period. The combined energy jumps to 1270, which is strong. The wind is a tricky cross-off from the NNE, but it's still clean. The commentary says it's marginal, but with that period and clean conditions, it's worth a look for an intermediate.

Then things get wild. From Wednesday the 5th through to Thursday the 6th of August, the swell absolutely explodes. We're talking 18ft to 31ft from the east and ESE, with energy readings hitting 19,539 and even 51,938. That is massive, dangerous, and far too big for paddle surfing. The wind is a strong cross-shore, making it a complete mess. This is strictly for the big-wave tow crews or, frankly, looks way more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

After that, from the 7th of August onwards, it's a write-off. The swell drops, but the wind swings onshore and stays strong, blowing out any chance of a clean wave right through until the 16th of August. We get a brief glimpse of hope on the 16th with a 7ft E swell and a light cross-shore wind, but it's still marginal.

So, the standout here is the early part of the window. The absolute best on offer is Sunday morning, the 2nd of August. A beautiful, clean 2ft groundswell with offshore winds at a reef break that loves a long period. It won't be huge, but it will be perfect. Monday morning, the 3rd, is a solid backup with bigger, clean waves, but it's a bit more tricky with the wind.

For the rest of the run, it's just a waiting game. The swell is there, but the wind is not our friend.

Rusty, signing off.

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