
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Toi surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 5 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period, E swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 6 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 26ft (8.0m), 16s period, ESE swell with 34,597 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 5 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Toi this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Toi over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.5m and 17s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Toi in the next 16 days are 8.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 5.5m 14s period and expected on Friday (Aug 07) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (JST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Wed 5th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Wed 5th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Thu 6th Aug) | 26ft (8.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Toi over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.
We’ve got a classic early August scenario unfolding. The week starts with serious size, but it’s going to be a battle with the wind. Then, a big quiet spell moves in, and we’re looking at a long stretch of small, clean conditions later on that might be more about the vibe than the power.
The best of the bunch, and the only real standout, comes on Wednesday the 5th. Cape Toi is a reef break, and it’s delivering a massive 16ft to 18ft east swell with a very long period of 16 to 17 seconds. The combined energy is a staggering 11841 to 16608, which is huge. This is proper groundswell – powerful, raw, and only for very experienced surfers. The biggest issue is the 22 mph cross-shore wind from the NE, which is going to put a real chop on the surface. The reef will hold the shape, but it’s going to be a battle. The water temperature is 84°, which is about average for this time of year.
Thursday the 6th sees the swell peak, with 21ft to 25ft on offer and wave energy climbing to a massive 26750 to 39107. But the wind is howling at 31 mph from the NE. This is a bit of a beast. It’s also a bit too big for most, and the cross-chop will be a mess. Only for the absolute die-hards.
Friday the 7th still has some size, with 16ft to 21ft from the SE, but the wind is now cross-onshore and heavy. By Saturday the 8th and into the following week, the swell is dropping and the wind stays onshore, making for poor, blown-out conditions. The energy drops off fast, and the sea state is just messy.
Now, for the gap. From around Sunday the 9th through to Monday the 17th, the surf is tiny and often not worth the effort. We’re looking at waves mostly under 5ft, a lot of the time with onshore or cross-shore wind. The energy is weak, mostly below 1000. There’s a small window on Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th where the wind goes glassy or light off-shore, and the swell is a clean 3ft to 5ft from the ENE with a period of 11 to 12 seconds. That’s a long period for such small waves. It’ll be clean, but it’s small. Cape Toi is inconsistent, so don’t bank on it.
The trend picks up just a touch around Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th with 5ft to 6ft east swell, but the wind is still cross, so it’s not a standout.
Right now, Wednesday the 5th is the only real standout. It’s massive, raw, and for experts only. The rest of the run is a waiting game for some cleaner, smaller conditions later in the week of the 13th.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 32mm), heaviest during Fri morning. Warm (max 29°C on Wed afternoon, min 28°C on Wed morning). Mainly near gales. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 90mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Warm (max 28°C on Sat morning, min 27°C on Sun afternoon). Mainly near gales. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | E 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | SE 15 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
11841 | 16608 | 17647 | 21180 | 26750 | 33034 | 18579 | 5969 | 5316 | 3667 | 3135 | 1906 | 1456 | 1364 | 2700 | 2963 | 3804 | 3302 | 2145 | 803 | 426 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 10:16AM1.62m | 10:11PM1.79m | 11:36AM1.51m | 10:57PM1.72m | 1:33PM1.48m | 00:05AM1.66m | 3:28PM1.58m | 1:39AM1.66m | 4:36PM1.73m | 3:05AM1.74m | 5:23PM1.86m | 4:12AM1.87m | 6:01PM1.96m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:00PM0.85m | 5:02AM0.59m | 4:51PM1.06m | 6:18AM0.57m | 6:16PM1.23m | 7:51AM0.49m | 8:23PM1.29m | 9:13AM0.35m | 9:54PM1.22m | 10:17AM0.19m | 10:51PM1.09m | 11:09AM0.07m | 11:35PM0.95m | ||||||||
5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:33 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | |
— | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:06 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:04 | — | — | 7:02 | — | — | 7:01 | — | |
mm | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
Temp °C | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
Feels °C | 27 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | E 17 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | — | SE 16 | SE 15 | SSE 14 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | S 14 | S 13 | S 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | S 13 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 |
11841 | 16608 | 17647 | 17927 | — | 27849 | 18579 | 11006 | 6680 | 4577 | 3440 | 3376 | 2545 | 2733 | 3197 | 3555 | 4036 | 2960 | 1627 | 1521 | 1165 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 15 | ENE 15 | ENE 14 | — | SE 15 | — | — | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 12 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 43 | 42 | 41 | — | 9 | — | — | 1194 | 979 | 1563 | 1285 | 510 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 10 | ENE 12 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 468 | 343 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ENE 10 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 |
— | — | — | 21180 | 26750 | 33034 | 3442 | 5969 | 5316 | 3667 | 3135 | 1906 | 1456 | 1364 | 2700 | 2963 | 3804 | 3302 | 2145 | 803 | 426 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 331 | 877 | 268 | 401 | 835 | 380 | 826 | 835 | 685 | 872 | 826 | 826 | 826 | 826 | 1196 | 1196 | 1185 | 1160 | 268 | 268 | 12 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Kyu Shu | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Japan | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Toi Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Toi provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Toi can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Toi surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Toi) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Toi may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Toi is 15 km (9 miles) from Kushima. If you plan a holiday in Kyu Shu, look for hotels and other accommodation in Kushima. Kushima has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











