Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Cape Toi.

Frankly, it’s a bit of a frustrating stretch for the next 16 days. The bones of a decent swell are there at times, but the wind is almost always going to mess it up. We’re going to see a lot of small, clean windows in the mornings that get blown out by the afternoon, and then a big, messy swell event in the second week that’s more for the crazies or the kite crew.

The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is about average for this time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit.

Let’s start with the first real chance. Saturday, July 18th, is the pick of the entire outlook. Cape Toi is a reef setup, so it needs the right direction. We’ve got a clean 2ft swell from the East with a 9-second period. The wind is glassy in the morning, and the combined energy is a weak 74. It’s not going to be pumping, but it will be clean, rideable, and the best conditions we’ll see. The crowds can be occasional here, so grab that window. It’s a small day, but it’s the best on offer.

Sunday morning, July 19th, is another glassy window with the same 2ft East swell (57 energy), so that’s worth a look if you missed Saturday. After that, the pattern of clean mornings and messy afternoons continues. Wednesday morning, July 22nd, is interesting. The swell picks up to 3ft from the ENE, the period stretches to 11 seconds, and the energy jumps to a moderate 194. It’s glassy again, making it another decent morning window.

Now, the big story is what happens later. By Sunday, July 26th, the swell is getting pumped up by a storm. The afternoon shows a 5ft SE swell with a 13-second period and a huge 727 energy. But it’s a cross-onshore wind and the files say it’s poor. This is a case of a lot of water moving but no quality. By Monday, July 27th, it gets out of control. We’re looking at 16ft to 18ft SE swells with a very long 15-second period and enormous energy readings of 11,175 and 11,696. The wind is a strong cross-onshore, making it unsurfable. This setup is a classic for kite surfing, not paddle surfing. It’s also a dangerous size for anyone but experts. The period is so long, a reef like Cape Toi might handle it better than a beach, but the wind is just too ugly.

After that storm, the swell drops off a cliff. From July 29th into the first few days of August, we’re back to tiny, weak 0.7ft to 1ft waves with clean but very light winds. It’s a long, flat run to finish the outlook.

So, in short: don’t hold your breath for anything epic. The standouts are the clean, small windows on Saturday 18th and Wednesday 22nd. Everything else is either a battle with the wind or a massive, unmanageable storm swell.

Rusty.

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