Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ll be straight with you – this run-in at Cape Toi is pretty quiet for the first week. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out gap with almost nothing workable until the 24th of August. From right now, we’ve got tiny, weak, cross-onshore junk with swell heights under 2 ft, period short, and combined energy barely cracking 80-90 (weak). That’s just not worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer comes on the morning of Monday the 24th. The swell jumps up to 6 ft from the SE with a long 16-second period, so there’s proper groundswell energy – combined energy is 1988 (moderate). But the wind is cross-onshore from the ENE at 12 mph, and the call is poor surf. Not your day just yet.

By Monday afternoon, the swell is up to 8 ft from the SE, still with that 17-second period, and combined energy jumps to 3579 (moderate-to-strong). Wind is cross-shore at 16 mph, making it choppy, but it’s at least in the marginal range. Still, not the standout.

Now, Tuesday the 25th of August morning is the first real standout. Overnight, the wind goes clean, cross-offshore from the NE at 22 mph, and the swell is a solid 16 ft from the ESE with a 16-second period. Combined energy is massive at 13671 (strong). The reef at Cape Toi is gonna be handling proper groundswell, and with that offshore flow, it’s going to be clean. But here’s the thing: 16 ft is way over 8 ft – this is expert territory only. The period is long, so it’ll be lined up, but that size is not for the faint of heart. Crowds are possible here, so you might have a few other chargers, but with this size, it’ll thin out.

Tuesday afternoon, the swell hits 18 ft from the ESE, still 16-second period, but wind swings cross-shore and gets messy. The combined energy is 16228 (very strong). It’s borderline too big and messy for paddle surfing – honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than a standard paddle session.

Wednesday the 26th of August morning is even bigger: 20 ft from the E, 14-second period, with cross-offshore N wind at 28 mph. Clean again, but 20 ft is purely for experts. Combined energy is 15788 (very strong). That’s a heavy, powerful day, but only if you’ve got the skills.

The next standout is Thursday the 27th of August morning. The swell drops to a more manageable 12 ft from the ENE, 11-second period, combined energy at 3311 (strong). The wind is offshore from the NW at only 6 mph – that’s light and clean, glassy conditions. This is excellent for experienced surfers. 12 ft is still over 8 ft, so it’s expert-only, but with light offshore and a reef break, the shape will be beautiful. Crowds are possible, but with the size, it’ll be select.

After that, it’s a messy drop-off. From Friday the 28th into the first week of September, the swell stays big (8 ft to 21 ft) but the wind is constant cross-shore or cross-onshore, often strong, and the conditions are poor. The combined energy dips from 9320 down to 344 (weak to moderate). By the end of the run, near gale to gale-force winds from the NE and ENE make it flat-out blown out. Not worth it.

The water temperature is around 84°F, with a +0.2°F anomaly – about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

So, the takeaway: the best surf on offer is Tuesday the 25th of August morning for the big, clean, expert-only swell, and Thursday the 27th of August morning for the glassy, still expert-level but slightly more forgiving conditions. Everything else is a write-off.

Rusty.

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