Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Cape Toi. This reef break’s looking at a pretty lean 16-day stretch – nothing firing, but there are a couple of windows that might give you a session if you’re keen to paddle out. It’s an inconsistent spot anyway, and the forecast isn’t doing us any favours right now. Let’s run through it day by day.

Wednesday 8 July starts off with a solid 8 ft SE groundswell at 17 seconds – that’s proper energy with a combined swell energy of 3068 – but the wind’s cross-on from the east at 6 mph, so it’s messy. Thursday sees that swell even bigger, 12 ft on the 9th morning, but cross-shore winds and a chop make it a battle. Friday the 10th drops right off – basically flat. Saturday and Sunday the 11th and 12th are tiny, 1 ft, with cross-on wind – nothing to write home about.

Then on Monday 13 July we get a bit of glass early – wind from the south at 3 mph, glassy conditions – but the swell is only 2 ft from the east, period 9s, weak energy (41). Still, that clean surface is a tease.

The first real flicker of hope comes Tuesday 14 July morning: offshore from the WNW at 3 mph, clean, and a little 1 ft SE swell at 13 seconds. Combined energy is 116 – weak – but the wind’s light offshore. It’s tiny, but you might find a waist-high wave if you’re patient.

The standout, and I mean the only proper standout, is Wednesday 15 July morning. Wind swings west at 6 mph, cross-off, and the swell bumps to 3 ft from the ESE, period 12 seconds, energy 332. Conditions are described as clean – that’s the best you’ll see in this whole outlook. The swell direction isn’t the optimum NE, but that cross-off wind will keep the faces smooth. It’s inconsistent and crowds are possible, but if you pick your moment, you could score a few fun ones.

After that, the rest of the period goes downhill. Thursday 16 July has 4 ft but cross-on winds, and from Friday 17 through to Wednesday 22 July it’s mostly cross-onshore, lumpy, and often with storm risk. The energy drops, the waves get messy, and the only redeeming factor is the occasional clean morning that never delivers size. The last day, Thursday 23 July, has a 5 ft onshore east-northeast wind swell at 6 seconds – that’s short-period junk, combined energy 210, but onshore wind makes it a total mess.

So, bottom line: if you can get out Wednesday 15 July morning, you might scratch an itch. Otherwise, it’s a long blank stretch with nothing worth chasing.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the charts – things can change. This is Rusty, signing off.

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