Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's going on down at Cape Toi.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough start. We’re looking at a pretty bleak run for quite a while. From Thursday the 9th of July all the way through to around the 20th of July, there’s just nothing worth paddling out for. We’re talking over a week and a half of small, weak, onshore junk. Winds are a mess, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the swell is tiny – we're talking ankle-snappers if you’re lucky. The combined energy is practically zero, just miserable numbers in the double digits and low hundreds (36 to 159). There's a couple of glassy moments on the 14th, but with only 2ft of weak 9-second wind swell, it’s a flat spell. Not worth wetting a suit.

Now, hang in there, because things get interesting, but not in a good way for most of us. On Monday the 20th of July, the swell starts to kick up, but it’s still pretty messy with a cross-shore wind and a combined energy in the 400s (434 to 534). Still marginal.

The real event, and I mean *the* event, is on Tuesday the 21st of July. The models are lighting up for Cape Toi. We've got a massive 28ft swell hitting on the Tuesday morning, from the ESE, with a very long 14-second period. The combined energy is just insane – 29369! That’s a beast of a groundswell. But here’s the kicker, and I have to be honest with you: the forecast is saying it’s too big for this break. Cape Toi a reef, and with that much water moving, it’s going to be a washing machine. Even though the morning wind is a manageable cross-shore (NE at 12 mph), that size is only for the absolute elite, if anyone. The afternoon is still massive at 23ft. This is not a beginner or intermediate day. It’s a "watch from the cliff" kind of day.

After that pulse passes, Wednesday the 22nd sees a drop to 8ft from the east, but it’s a shorter 9-second period and the wind is still cross-shore. It’s a step down, and the energy drops to 1040. Thursday the 23rd has a 6ft east swell, also short period, and it’s just not looking clean.

So, the honest truth? There is no standout surfing window for the average punter in this 16-day run. The big swell on the 21st is a spectacle, not a session for most. If you are a total charger, and I mean a big-wave specialist, that Tuesday morning might be your jam, but the conditions are gnarly. For everyone else, the first week and a half is a write-off, and the week after is either too big, too weak, or too choppy. It’s a tough run for Cape Toi.

Rusty.

Read more