Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way. We’re focusing on one spot that has built a bit of a reputation: Cape Toi. But it’s not all plain sailing, so let’s get into it.

The forecast starts with a bit of a slow grind. Early Monday morning (the 10th) we see some east swell at about 6 ft, but the wind is coming from the east at 9 mph, putting us in a cross-on situation that leaves things fairly choppy and messy. The combined energy is pumping at (1094) which is a strong number, but the quality just isn’t there. It looks more like a wrestling match than a wave session. Through Monday afternoon, that 5 ft east swell sticks around but the conditions are poor. Not a good start.

But hope arrives on Tuesday morning, the 11th of August. The wind swings around to a light north at just 3 mph, going glassy. The swell drops a bit to 5 ft from the east with a 12-second period. This is the standout window. The glide is there, the surface is clean, and expectations are high. This is where you want to be in the water. The water temperature is sitting at 84°, which is pretty much average for the time of year—no surprises, just warm.

Tuesday afternoon sees the wind shifting south and cross-on again, making it marginal, so catch that morning session.

The rest of the week through to the weekend (Wednesday 12th to Sunday 16th) is a mixed bag. Wednesday morning is cross-shore and building a bit of chop. Things dip significantly by Thursday when the swell drops to under 3 ft and the energy plummets. Friday and Saturday are small and onshore-leaning—it’s a bit of a dead period.

Now, Sunday the 16th offers another flicker of hope for the morning. A north-northeast breeze at 6 mph gives us a clean, cross-off wind, and the swell holds around 3 ft from the east. It’s not huge, but it’s surfable and tidy. If you missed Tuesday, this is your second chance.

Through the second week, it gets a bit bleak. Monday 17th to Wednesday 19th is mostly choppy and onshore, with the wind ramping up. The swell is there (around 4 ft to 5 ft) but the wind just spoils it. Thursday 20th and Friday 21st are small and not worth the paddle.

Then on Saturday 22nd August morning, we get a hint of something again. A light west-northwest wind at 3 mph gives us clean conditions on a tiny 2 ft swell. It’s ordinary but clean. Sunday 23rd morning is similar. But the real last chance is Monday morning the 24th of August: glassy conditions with a west-northwest 3 mph wind, 3 ft of east swell (9-second period, not long but okay) and the energy hits a moderate (200). It’s clean, it’s small, but you could get a fun one if you pick your wave.

All in all, the standout is clearly Tuesday morning the 11th of August. Glassy conditions and chest-high east swell. If you can paddle out then, do it. The rest of the window is mostly small, messy, or blown out, with a few clean morning opportunities later on that are more for the patient surfer.

Remember, Cape Toi is a reef break—it can be inconsistent, though we do have some consistent pulse here for the first couple of days. It’s exposed to the swell, so it picks up what’s there.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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