Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking straight at the charts for the Cape Toi area.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn't a classic run of form for this reef break. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty weak and ordinary for the most part, with a lot of small, wind-affected days. There’s not a single true standout session in the whole 16-day window that’ll have you calling in sick for work. We’ve got a long stretch of small waves and tricky winds to get through.

Let’s start with this coming Sunday, the 19th of July. Early morning, it’s about as small as it gets with a 2ft swell from the east, and the water temp is sitting at a pretty average 82°, nothing unusual for this time of year. The wind is light and cross-off from the WSW at 3 mph, which should keep it clean, but the swell energy is weak (56). Monday the 20th looks similar, with a touch more size at 2ft in the morning and clean conditions with a light WNW wind. Tuesday morning the 21st is actually glassy – zero wind from the NNE – but it’s still just 2ft of weak, low-period east swell. You can get a wave, but it won't be memorable.

The best of a bad bunch looks like Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd. Wednesday morning we get a glassy 3ft swell from the ENE with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy kicks up to a moderate 156. That’s the pick of the first week, but it’s still a very small wave for a reef break. Thursday morning is glassy too, with a 2ft ENE swell. After that, it just fades and gets onshore in the afternoons.

From Saturday the 26th onwards, the swell drops right off into the 1ft to 2ft range, with poor conditions. There’s a real lull from around the 27th of July all the way through the end of the month. By the 30th of July, we’re looking at a storm force cross-onshore wind (59 mph) and only 1ft of swell – absolute write-off.

Now, things get interesting around the 1st and 2nd of August, but not in a good way for paddling. We start seeing some very long period groundswell pushing in – 15 to 18 second intervals – with the combined energy going through the roof. For instance, on the 2nd of August (Sunday), we’re looking at 5ft swell from the ESE with a 17-second period and a massive 1048 combined energy. The problem is it’s pinned with a strong cross-onshore wind (31 mph) blowing it out. That big, long-period swell hitting a reef with that wind will be a mess. It’s the sort of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if you’ve got the chops.

The 3rd of August (Monday) is the biggest, with 7ft to 8ft swell and periods up to 18 seconds, and energy values sky-rocketing past 2700 and 3963. But again, it’s cross-onshore and lumpy, making it dangerous and ugly. This is expert-only territory, and even then, the wind is your enemy.

So to sum it up: no true standouts. The small, clean windows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings (22nd and 23rd of July) are your only real chances for a surfable wave, but keep your expectations low. Everything else is either tiny, blown out, or both. The big energy at the start of August is a tease – it’s raw power, but it’s not ridable with that wind. Hang in there, or go find a lake.

Rusty.

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