Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at what’s coming up for Cape Toi. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the east, picking up a bit of energy from the NE direction. The water’s sitting around 82°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing to write home about.

Alright, straight up – the first week and a half is pretty flat and ordinary. You’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak surf with poor conditions. The first real chance to get wet is Sunday morning the 19th of July, but it’s nothing to get excited about. We’ve got tiny 2ft east swell, period only 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 63. Wind is glassy though, so it’ll be clean and calm, but the waves are just surfable, very average. The afternoon goes cross-shore and messy.

Monday the 20th of July morning is a slight step up: 3ft east swell, period still short at 10 seconds, combined energy at 120 (moderate). Wind is offshore from the WNW, so it’ll be clean. Still, it’s not a standout – more of a “might as well be in the water” kind of day. The wind shifts south in the arvo and ruins it.

Tuesday the 21st of July morning is glassy with 2ft east swell, but again, weak energy at 79, and short period. It’s surfable but very ordinary. Wednesday the 22nd of July morning sees a little bump: 3ft from the ENE, period up to 11 seconds, combined energy 194, and glassy wind. That’s the best of the first week, but still not a standout – just clean and small.

Then we hit a real gap. From Thursday the 23rd of July right through to Saturday the 25th of July, it’s all poor surf, tiny waves, and onshore or cross-shore junk. Sunday the 26th of July is also poor. So there’s a solid run of days with no real recommendations.

Now, hold onto your board – Monday the 27th of July morning is where things get interesting, but it’s for experts only. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the SE, period a very long 16 seconds, and combined energy is strong at 2414. Wind is cross-shore from the NE at 25 km/h, so it’ll be a bit choppy and cross. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 10ft, period 15 seconds, energy 3241 – still cross-shore and messy. This is big, powerful groundswell, but with that cross-wind, it’s going to be a battle. Not for the faint-hearted.

Tuesday the 28th of July is the real standout. Morning: 12ft from the SE, period 15 seconds, energy 5255, and cross-off wind from the NNE at 40 km/h. That’s clean, strong, and heavy. Afternoon: 13ft SE swell, period 16 seconds, energy 9185, with cross-off wind from the north at 40 km/h. That’s massive, very long-period groundswell, and the wind is clean. This is a proper big-wave day for experienced surfers only. Cape Toi is a reef, so it’ll handle that long-period energy well, but the size means it’s only for the crew who know what they’re doing.

Wednesday the 29th of July is still big but dropping: 13ft from the east in the morning, period 14 seconds, energy 6208, and cross-off wind from the west at 35 km/h – clean. Afternoon: 12ft from the ENE, period 13 seconds, energy 3713, still clean. That’s still solid, but the wind is strong and cross-off, so it’ll be a bit tricky getting out.

After that, it drops off hard. Thursday the 30th of July goes back to tiny, poor surf, and that’s it for the rest of the period. Saturday the 2nd of August morning shows a little 2ft SE swell with a long period of 11 seconds, glassy wind, and combined energy 201 – that’s surfable and clean, but tiny. Not a standout.

So, the best on offer is unquestionably Tuesday the 28th of July – that’s a massive, clean, powerful groundswell day for the experts. Monday the 27th and Wednesday the 29th are also big, but wind is a bit more cross. Everything else is small, weak, and ordinary. Don’t bother with the first week and a half.

Rusty.

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