Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

The outlook for Cape Toi is a slow starter. The first week or so is flat and messy, with hardly any swell and wind that’s cross or onshore most of the time. It’s not until the third week of July that we finally see a bit of life. The real standout is shaping up for Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th, but even then it’s not a classic.

Water temp is about 79°, which is nearly 4° cooler than average for this time of year – you’ll feel that little chill on the skin.

For the first week, from Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 21st, it’s a tough stretch. We’ve got a run of days with tiny swell – mostly around 1ft to 2ft, short period, and combined energy barely cracking 30 to 90 (weak). The wind is often cross or cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. Thursday the 16th morning has a moment of glassy conditions with 2ft east swell, but it’s just ordinary. Not worth paddling out for.

The first real flicker of something happens on Tuesday the 21st afternoon. The swell jumps a bit to 4ft from the east, but the period drops to 5 seconds – just wind chop – and the energy is still only moderate (124). The wind is cross-shore, so it’s lumpy. Definitely not a highlight.

Now, Wednesday the 22nd is where it gets interesting. The swell picks up to 3ft in the morning and 4ft in the afternoon, but the period jumps to 17 seconds and then 15 seconds – that’s very long-period groundswell from the east. The combined energy spikes to 767 and 827 (strong). This is a proper groundswell, but it’s a reef break, so those long-period lines should wrap in nicely. The catch? The wind is cross-shore, so it’s not perfectly clean. Still, it’s the best swell we’ve seen – worth a look for the experienced crew.

Thursday the 23rd morning is the pick of the bunch. Strong 5ft east swell with a 12-second period, combined energy of 733 (strong), and light cross-shore breeze. For a reef setup, that’s decent. The afternoon drops off a bit with 5ft and cross-onshore wind, but the morning session is the one to aim for. This is a standout for the more advanced surfers – 5ft is getting a bit chunky for beginners.

Friday the 24th morning is also promising. Swell drops to 3ft from the east, but the period is 10 seconds, and the wind is cross-offshore – clean. Combined energy is moderate at 323. It’s not as big as Thursday, but it’ll be cleaner and more user-friendly.

After that, the swell fades again into the weekend. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th have small 3ft to 3ft east swell, with some glassy patches on Sunday morning, but the energy is weak (106 to 159). It’s surfable but very ordinary.

All in all, the best bet is Thursday the 23rd morning. It’s the biggest, cleanest window in the whole 16 days. Long-range, so not a dead cert, but it’s the one to circle.

Rusty.

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