Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Cape Toi is serving up over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a frustrating outlook. For a reef break that’s exposed to the swell, we’re looking at a pretty ordinary run of conditions for the most part. The first glimmer of real hope isn’t until Tuesday the 7th of July, and even then, it’s a very short window.

So, the pick of the entire forecast is hands down Tuesday morning, July 7th. Cape Toi wakes up with the wind going glassy out of the northwest. We’ve got a solid 5ft swell pushing in from the southeast with a long 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy of all swells is a moderate 734. The water is sitting at 79°, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so you might want a spring suit. But that glassy morning with that size and direction? That’s the session to be on it. Just keep in mind the crowds can show up here sometimes.

From Tuesday afternoon things get messy quick. The wind swings easterly and comes cross-on, bumping the swell up to 5ft but ruining the surface. Wednesday the 8th sees a bigger push of swell – 8ft in the morning with a very long 17-second period from the southeast, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 3072. But the wind is a cross-shore from the northeast at 9 mph, so it’s not going to be clean. By Thursday the 9th, it’s getting bigger again at 12ft in the morning, but it’s cross-on and choppy – that’s expert territory, and honestly, the wind is going to make it a chore. That afternoon it drops to a pathetic 4ft with a short 7-second period and poor conditions. Not worth it.

Then we hit a massive dead zone. From Friday the 10th all the way through to Tuesday the 14th of July, there’s hardly any swell to speak of – we’re talking 1ft to 2ft with weak energy readings in the 20s and 30s. The wind is mostly cross-on or glassy, but there’s just no power. Wednesday the 15th morning shows a tiny pulse of 3ft from the southeast with an 11-second period and glassy winds, but it’s barely surfable.

The second week looks mostly poor. Around Saturday the 18th of July, we see another spike – 8ft in the morning from the southeast with a 12-second period, and the combined energy hits a strong 1658. However, the wind is a cross-on easterly at 12 mph, so it’s going to be lumpy and messy. By Sunday the 19th, we’re still seeing 8ft from the east, but again, cross-on and choppy. Conditions are just not working for this spot for any extended period.

Forget the kite surfing talk here; that’s just wind and chop. For paddle surfing, look hard at that Tuesday morning, July 7th. That’s the real standout. After that, it’s a wait-and-see game.

Rusty.

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