Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a classic early August scenario unfolding. The week starts with serious size, but it’s going to be a battle with the wind. Then, a big quiet spell moves in, and we’re looking at a long stretch of small, clean conditions later on that might be more about the vibe than the power.

The best of the bunch, and the only real standout, comes on Wednesday the 5th. Cape Toi is a reef break, and it’s delivering a massive 16ft to 18ft east swell with a very long period of 16 to 17 seconds. The combined energy is a staggering 11841 to 16608, which is huge. This is proper groundswell – powerful, raw, and only for very experienced surfers. The biggest issue is the 22 mph cross-shore wind from the NE, which is going to put a real chop on the surface. The reef will hold the shape, but it’s going to be a battle. The water temperature is 84°, which is about average for this time of year.

Thursday the 6th sees the swell peak, with 21ft to 25ft on offer and wave energy climbing to a massive 26750 to 39107. But the wind is howling at 31 mph from the NE. This is a bit of a beast. It’s also a bit too big for most, and the cross-chop will be a mess. Only for the absolute die-hards.

Friday the 7th still has some size, with 16ft to 21ft from the SE, but the wind is now cross-onshore and heavy. By Saturday the 8th and into the following week, the swell is dropping and the wind stays onshore, making for poor, blown-out conditions. The energy drops off fast, and the sea state is just messy.

Now, for the gap. From around Sunday the 9th through to Monday the 17th, the surf is tiny and often not worth the effort. We’re looking at waves mostly under 5ft, a lot of the time with onshore or cross-shore wind. The energy is weak, mostly below 1000. There’s a small window on Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th where the wind goes glassy or light off-shore, and the swell is a clean 3ft to 5ft from the ENE with a period of 11 to 12 seconds. That’s a long period for such small waves. It’ll be clean, but it’s small. Cape Toi is inconsistent, so don’t bank on it.

The trend picks up just a touch around Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th with 5ft to 6ft east swell, but the wind is still cross, so it’s not a standout.

Right now, Wednesday the 5th is the only real standout. It’s massive, raw, and for experts only. The rest of the run is a waiting game for some cleaner, smaller conditions later in the week of the 13th.

Rusty.

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