Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for Cape Toi. This is a reef setup that’s a bit of a speciality spot, and it’s exposed to the swell, but it’s inconsistent, so you have to pick your moments. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but it’s a mixed bag. There’s a big gap of poor conditions at the start, and the only real standout appears later on.

The overall pattern is grim for the first week. We’re staring down the barrel of a solid, but messy, pulse of swell from the SE and ENE, but the wind is just horrible. It’s mostly cross or cross-onshore, with fresh to strong breezes. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for the time of year. The combined wave energy is moderate to strong, with values like 1067 and 1558 early on, but it’s all wasted on choppy, lumpy conditions. It’s a write-off through Thursday, Friday, and the weekend, with heavy rain and thunderstorms adding to the misery. The swell is big – over 8 ft at times – so it’s expert-only anyway, but the wind is just trashing it.

Come Monday the 7th, things start to look a little more interesting. The wind finally goes cross-offshore from the NNE, but the surf is still huge – 12 ft from the NE with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a lot of energy (3112) and the setup is clean, but it’s for experts only, and the guidance says it’s marginal due to tide. It’s a big, powerful groundswell, so it’ll be walling up on the reef. Not a beginner’s day.

There’s a bit of a lull in the middle of the week, with smaller, cleaner swells, but nothing that really fires.

Here’s the one true standout. Thursday the 10th. The morning session is where it’s at. The wind drops to a whisper – just 3 mph from the NNE, cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the NE with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy is 634, which is moderate, but the wind is glassy, clean, and the surf is rated as “very good.” The swell direction is NE, which is bang on the optimum for this break. This is the pick of the entire forecast. The size is still a bit much for beginners, but for intermediate to advanced surfers, this is going to be a crisp, clean wave on that reef. Keep in mind it’s inconsistent here, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but when they come, they’ll be worth it.

After that, the window closes. The following week is a mix of weak, short-period windswell from the E and ESE, with increasing onshore winds. There’s a long gap of several days with no real recommendations. The surf is small, choppy, and generally poor. The 16th and 17th see some tiny, clean waves, but they’re marginal at best.

So, if you’re planning a trip, pencil in Thursday the 10th. That morning is your best shot. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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