Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Alright, let’s be honest right from the start – this forecast is a tough one for the Cape Toi area. We’re looking at a long, frustrating stretch ahead with no real “go” days. The swell is tiny, the wind is all wrong, and everything is just a bit messy. It’s a proper drought.

The first real chance of anything even slightly worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until Monday the 24th of August. Through the weekend, from Friday the 21st through Sunday the 23rd, it’s all small, cross-onshore junk. Swell heights are barely 1ft to 2ft, wind is side-on or worse, and the wave energy is weak (69–200). Forget it.

Then Monday the 24th, we get a tease. The morning at Cape Toi sees a bit of a pulse – a groundswell from the SE at 3ft, but with a very long period of 20 seconds. That’s a lot of energy in the water (1019), but it’s a tricky one. That long period will make it break straight and fast over the reef. Wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 12 mph, so it’s not clean, but the report says it’s “marginal.” The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is pretty standard for this time of year – no surprises there.

The swell really ramps up on Tuesday the 25th, but it’s a raw, angry beast. We’re talking 16ft SE swell with a 16-second period, and the energy is off the charts (13612). But the wind is screaming from the NE at 25 mph, creating a total mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not a day for a paddle board. The whole setup is just too big and too blown out – it’s only for the absolute experts, and even then, it’s not fun.

After that, the week gets worse. Wednesday the 26th brings gale-force winds (43 mph) and a total wipeout. Thursday through Sunday the 30th is a mix of onshore wind and small, choppy swell. The wave energy stays moderate (146–566), but the wind is always cross-onshore, killing any chance of quality.

The second week of the forecast, from the 31st of August into early September, is a bit more settled, but still no standout. On Monday the 31st, we get a light breeze and a 4ft to 4ft ESE swell with a long 11-second period. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s “marginal” – small, but at least the wind isn’t ruining it. It’s the best we’ve got, but calling it a standout feels like a stretch.

Wednesday the 2nd of September morning has a glimmer: a 7ft ENE swell, light cross-offshore wind from the NNE at 15 mph, and the report says “clean.” That’s the only time in the entire 16 days where the wind is working in our favour. The period is 11 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell, but the energy is moderate (954). It’s a promising but less certain call this far out – worth keeping an eye on.

The rest of the second week fades out with small, short-period windswell (7 seconds, 3ft to 7ft) and fresh cross-winds. Nothing to get excited about.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate, the morning of Wednesday the 2nd of September is your best bet for a clean-ish session at Cape Toi, but it’s not a classic. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off. It’s a tough patch for the area, but it won’t last forever. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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