Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Honestly, the outlook is pretty grim for this stretch. Over the full 16-day run, the first few days are dead flat or just rubbish – nothing worth a mention.

The only spot we’ve got is Cape Toi, a reef break that’s inconsistent and only for intermediate surfers when it works. The water’s at 26°, which is a bit colder than normal – about two degrees off the long-term average, so you’ll notice it.

For the first four or five days, there’s barely a bump. Tiny swell, poor conditions, the wind is all over the place. A total write-off.

Sunday the 13th through Wednesday the 16th of July stays tiny – nothing over 0.5 feet, mostly from the east, and the energy is weak (under 50 on the scale). The wind is cross-off some mornings, so it’s clean, but there’s no power. Not worth getting wet.

Friday the 17th morning finally shows a little life – 0.6 feet east swell, clean cross-off wind, but the energy is still low (61). The call is surfable but very ordinary. That’s the best you’re going to see for a while, and it’s not saying much.

Saturday the 18th of July is where things get interesting, but it’s tricky. The morning has a long-period easterly groundswell at 0.5 feet with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period, and for a reef break it can be a bit too straight. The combined energy jumps to 395 (moderate) but the wind is cross and onshore in the afternoon, plus the swell jumps to 6 feet. The afternoon sees huge energy (1526) but with strong cross-shore wind, it’s messy. This is a day for experts only if you time the morning right between the wind.

Sunday the 19th is a mess – 8 feet east swell, cross-onshore, storm risk. That’s big and ugly, not for beginners. Monday the 20th stays poor with similar conditions, and the trend continues through the rest of the week: onshore winds, lumpy, choppy, and the swell direction stays generally east or southeast.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the Saturday 18th of July morning session at Cape Toi (Miyazaki). You’ve got a 0.5 feet east swell with a very long 17-second period, which means deeper water movement and decent shape for a reef. The wind is cross-off early, so it’ll be clean. The energy is moderate (395) and with the swell direction from the NE, it matches the optimum direction for this break. It’s inconsistent though, so don’t expect a lot of waves, and the crowd factor says “sometimes” – so you might have company. Still, this is the best the forecast shows. After that, it’s all pretty average.

Beyond that, there’s really nothing worth highlighting as a “go” day. The second week from the 22nd onward shows some moderate energy but always with some cross-on or onshore wind. The 22nd morning has a 4 feet ESE swell with light cross-shore wind, energy at 488 (moderate), but it’s still marginal. Not the kind of day to get stoked about.

So, overall, it’s a rough run for Cape Toi. A lot of flat or poor conditions, and only one small window of decent surf. It tends to stay poor for a while here, but forecasts change. Keep an eye out.

Rusty.

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