Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. We've got a bit of a slow start on the horizon for Cape Toi, but there's a big pulse of energy building that's worth keeping an eye on. The water is sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days, from Tuesday the 28th of July right through the weekend, are pretty ordinary. You're looking at tiny 1.0ft to 2ft swell from the southeast, with weak energy readings mostly under 100, and the odd one just over 100. The wind is light and cross-off or glassy for a few of the morning sessions, especially Wednesday the 29th afternoon when it goes glassy, which is a plus, but there's just no size to get excited about. It's a real flat spell. Expect a long gap of around five days with nothing really recommended.

Now, things start to change on Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning stays small and glassy, but the afternoon sees a jump in energy to 282 (moderate) with a 2ft, 14-second ESE groundswell pushing in. That's a sign of better things to come.

The real standout window is Monday the 3rd of August through Wednesday the 5th of August. On Monday morning, the swell jumps to 5ft from the ESE with a super long 16-second period, and the combined energy rockets to 1294 (strong). The wind is a clean cross-off from the NNE, making for some decently shaped waves. This is a reef break, and that long period groundswell will really suit it, offering clean lines with good gaps between sets. Be aware, though, by Monday afternoon the swell is 6ft and the wind turns cross, making it a bit lumpy. Tuesday the 4th sees the swell building further to 8ft in the morning and 10ft in the afternoon, with the energy hitting 4255 and 5054 (very strong). That's expert territory, and the cross wind will add some chop. Wednesday the 5th is the peak of the run, with a 15ft to 16ft swell from the east, and combined energy readings of 16032 and 16734 (very strong). The wind is cross, and the spot is too big for this break, so unless you're a seasoned charger at a reef, this one is for the experienced crew only. The wave period is still very long, over 18 seconds, so those waves will have serious grunt.

After that, the swell drops back but stays on the radar. On Thursday the 6th of August, the morning sees a cleaner 5ft E swell with a 13-second period, but the wind picks up hard later. There's a window on Monday the 10th of August that looks promising for a session: a 5ft E swell with a 13-second period, light cross-off winds, and a combined energy of 878 (moderate). The forecast suggests very good surf conditions then, but it's a long way out, so don't pencil it in just yet.

Overall, the stand-out is the Monday 3rd to Wednesday 5th window for the big groundswell, but it's for experts only at those sizes. For the average surfer, the Monday 10th morning session looks like the best bet for a clean, fun wave. Keep in mind, Cape Toi is an inconsistent reef break, and crowds can pop up when it's good, so get in early.

Rusty.

Read more