Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s chew over what’s up at Cape Toi.

Right now, it’s dead flat and pretty sad. For the next week or so, the surf is tiny and weak, with most of the conditions being pretty average. The swell is small – maybe 1 to 2 feet – and the energy is weak (62 to 124). You’ll get a few clean windows early Sunday the 26th morning with 1ft from the SE and a light northerly breeze, but the waves are just too small to bother with. Monday morning the 27th is glassy with 2ft from the SE, but it’s still just ankle-to-knee high. Water temp is about 84°, which is normal for the season.

There’s a long stretch of poor conditions from late Sunday through the end of July and into the first couple of days of August. The wind is often onshore or cross-shore, and the wave heights barely move off 1ft. Surfable, but barely.

Then, around Monday the 3rd of August, things start to wake up. We get a proper groundswell – 2ft from the ESE, with a period of 14 seconds, so it’s got some push. The energy hits 364 (moderate). The wind is cross from the NE, so it’s not perfect. By Tuesday the 4th, we’re looking at 7ft from the ESE, with a very long 16-second period and energy up to 1962 – that’s serious power. The wind is still cross from the NE, making it choppy. This is big for a reef break like Cape Toi, and at 7ft it’s getting into intermediate territory, but the cross-wind is a bummer.

The standout of the whole run is looking like Friday the 7th of August. The swell is pumping – 16ft from the ESE early, with an 18-second period. The energy reading is massive at 15919. That’s a heavy-duty swell. But – and it’s a big but – the guidance says this is too big for Cape Toi. The wind is cross-off from the NNE, so it’ll be clean, but those waves are for experts only. It’s a beast.

Saturday the 8th is even bigger – 28ft to 36ft with insane energy (54113 to 159172). The wind is offshore on Saturday afternoon from the NNW at 31 mph, so it’ll look like a big-wave spot, but it’s a survival mission. That’s for tow-in or the truly crazy.

After that, things drop fast. Sunday the 9th sees the swell crash down to 15ft with strong cross-shore winds, and by Monday the 10th, it’s back to 6ft to 7ft with a cross-breeze and marginal quality.

So, overall: the first week is a wash. The real action kicks off from August 3rd, but the absolute best on offer for Cape Toi, despite the size, is Friday the 7th of August morning – that swell direction matches the optimum NE, the wind is clean, and the energy is staggering. It’s a big-wave day. If you’re not at that level, Tuesday the 4th with 7ft and a long period is your best bet, but expect cross-chop. Crowds are sometimes a factor here, so for the standouts, you won’t be alone.

The break is inconsistent, so these windows are real events. For the second week, it’s all that monster swell and then a quick fade. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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