Cape Toi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Cape Toi’s got cookin’ over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest, the start of this run is a bit of a flat spell.

First up, nothing doing until Sunday the 2nd of August. We’ve got a few days of tiny, poor-conditions surf before that, so it’s a waiting game. The water’s sitting around 85°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no shocker there.

Sunday the 2nd morning is where we finally get a pulse. It’s still small, only 2 ft out of the ESE, but with a very long 16-second period and light offshore NW wind, it’s gonna be clean. That swell energy is moderate (297), so it’s not a beast, but for a reef break like Cape Toi, that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. It’s a proper little window for a paddle.

Monday the 3rd morning sees the size jump to 6 ft from the ESE, period still a very long 17 seconds. The energy ramps up to strong (2043). The wind is cross-shore, though, so there’ll be a bit of texture on the face. It’s not perfect, but that’s a decent, punchy wave for an intermediate surfer. Anything over 5 ft is getting a bit meaty for the beginners, so leave this one for those with a bit of experience.

The end of the first week and into the second gets wild, but not for us. From Tuesday the 5th morning, the swell goes nuclear—16 ft, then 20 ft, then 36 ft. The energy readings are insane (over 15,000 and 170,000). The problem? It’s way too big for this reef. The forecast says it’s too big for the break, and I’m with that. Add in strong cross-shore winds and it’s a washing machine. This is kite-surfing territory, not a paddle session. This messy, oversized stuff lingers through the 9th of August.

The next true standout comes around Wednesday the 12th of August morning. The swell has dropped back to a manageable 5 ft out of the ENE with a 14-second period. The wind is light from the NE, nearly offshore, and the report says “very good surf conditions.” That’s a clean, lined-up reef wave with moderate energy (956). The crowds here are sometimes around, so you might have company, but for a morning session, that’s a solid bet. The ENE direction matches what this reef likes, so the waves should have some shape.

After that, the swell hangs around but the conditions get a bit mixed again—choppier cross-shore winds and smaller energy through to the 14th. The 12th is your pick of the whole window, no question. A bit of patience and you’ll get a taste.

Rusty.

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