Aha Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Aha Rivermouth over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this is a tough outlook. The next week and a half is looking pretty average, with only a few small windows of rideable surf, and even then, it’s nothing to get worked up about. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you might want a spring suit if you’re heading out.

We start off on Sunday the 19th with tiny 1ft swell from the ENE at 9 seconds. The wind is glassy in the morning, but the waves are just too small and weak – the combined energy is only 29 – so it’s poor surf conditions. Same story into Monday the 20th, with clean offshore winds from the SSW, but still only 1ft of weak, short-period ENE swell (energy sitting at 30). It’s frustrating.

Tuesday the 21st is more of the same: 2ft from the E, 9 seconds. The wind is offshore in the morning, so it’s clean, but the energy is only 43. Wednesday the 22nd finally sees a flicker of life. Under glassy conditions, we get 2ft of E swell, and the energy climbs to 58 in the morning and 80 in the afternoon. The forecast calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and I’d agree – it’s a 1 out of 10 kind of day. Thursday morning the 23rd is worth a look too, with glassy, calm conditions and 2ft ENE swell at 10 seconds. Energy reaches 88, which is the best of the first week. But that afternoon a risk of thunderstorms and cross-shore winds kills it.

After that, it’s a real dry spell. From Friday the 24th through to Saturday the 1st of August, the onshore winds are persistent and the swell stays tiny or drops out completely. There’s a lot of poor surf with no real recommendations. The break is inconsistent at the best of times, and this stretch shows it.

Now, looking into the second week, things get more interesting but a lot more dangerous. Sunday the 26th sees a new long-period SE groundswell showing up. The morning has 2ft but with a 16-second period, and the energy jumps to 158. The afternoon pushes to 3ft at 14 seconds, with energy hitting 405. The problem? Strong onshore winds from the ENE ruin the surface. It’s a no-go for paddle surfing.

Monday the 27th is a big one. We’re looking at 8ft of SE swell, with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is massive – 2650 in the morning and 3073 in the afternoon. That’s some serious moving water. But the wind is howling onshore from the ENE at 12 to 16 mph. For a beach/jetty setup, even a rivermouth, that’s going to be a messy, dangerous close-out. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.

Tuesday the 28th is a full-on weather event. The swell is 16ft from the SE at 16 seconds, with energy reading 11798 – that’s a massive amount of power. The wind is a near-gale from the NE at 31 mph in the morning, and a gale at 40 mph in the afternoon, with thunderstorms. Stay out of the water. That afternoon, the swell data disappears. It’s pure chaos.

Wednesday the 29th sees the wind shift to a severe gale from the WNW, with gusts up to 53 mph. The swell drops to 0.3ft, but the wind is cross-offshore, so the ocean is clean but empty. That pattern of strong cross-offshore winds and tiny leftover swell (0.3ft to 1.0ft) continues through to Friday the 31st. The energy is in the single digits to low 20s, so it’s flat.

The weekend of the 1st of August is flat, with no swell data. Then on Sunday the 2nd, a new E swell arrives with a 15-second period and energy of 272, rising to 3ft at 16 seconds and 520 energy by the afternoon. But the wind is a near-gale from the WNW at 31 mph, making it unsurfable. Monday the 3rd is the same story: 5ft to 6ft of E groundswell, long period, but a severe gale from the WNW at 50 to 53 mph makes it pure survival conditions.

Look, the standout here – if you can call it that – is Thursday morning the 23rd of July. It’s small (2ft, ENE at 10 seconds) but with glassy, calm conditions and the highest energy of that first week at 88. It’s not a classic, but it’s the cleanest we get. For the brave and experienced, the swell on Monday the 27th has serious size and power, but the wind is just wrong. Aha Rivermouth is an exposed spot, and when the wind is onshore, it’s a write-off.

Rusty.

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