Aha Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag for Aha Rivermouth. We’ve got a big weather system brewing later in the first week that’ll pump in some serious groundswell, but for a lot of the time it’s either too small, too blown out, or the waves will be just too powerful for this spot. It’s a beach/jetty setup and that jetty will try to line things up, but when the swell gets up, it’s going to be heavy.

The first few days are lean. Friday the 3rd has clean conditions with a light SSW breeze going offshore, but the swell is tiny at 2 ft from the ESE with a modest period of 9 seconds and the combined energy is really weak (58). You can get a wave but the quality is ordinary. Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are even smaller, with the energy dropping as low as 26, so I’d give those a miss unless you just want to float around.

Monday the 6th starts showing a change. The morning is still small at 1 ft, but the period jumps to 16 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell arriving. The combined energy is still low (73) in the morning, but by the afternoon it climbs to 120 (moderate) with a 1 ft ESE swell. That long period means the waves will have better shape but also longer lulls. The wind is cross-off from the SSE, which is clean, so it’s surfable but nothing special.

Now, the standout window is Tuesday the 7th. Tuesday morning is the pick of the whole forecast. We’ve got 4 ft of swell from the ESE with a very long period of 16 seconds, and combined energy is strong at 1058. The wind is light and cross-off from the SSW – glassy conditions and clean faces. That’s a big, powerful groundswell hitting the jetty, and it’s going to groom into proper lines. Experienced surfers only though – 4 ft with that energy and period is punchy. The water temp anomaly is about average for this time of year.

Tuesday afternoon the wind swings to a light cross-onshore from the ESE, which puts a small ripple on it, and the swell bumps to 6 ft with a monster 18-second period and massive energy (2042). It’s still surfable for the crew who know what they’re doing, but it’s already getting a bit too much for the average punter, and tide could be tricky.

From Wednesday the 8th through to the following Monday, the place goes nuts. The swell peaks Wednesday morning at 10 ft from the ESE with an 17-second period and energy of 5183 – that’s very strong. The wind is onshore from the ENE at 9 mph, but the report says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a beach/jetty setup, that much power and period will make it a washing machine. This is solidly expert-only territory and even then, conditions will be raw. Wednesday afternoon gets worse with stronger onshore wind, and the numbers keep climbing all the way to 23 ft on Friday the 10th with wind howling at 28 mph. You’ll see energy values like 30780 – that’s extreme. For a few days after that, the surf drops to zero – no waves at all – and the wind remains strong.

There’s a brief return of surf around Monday the 13th afternoon, with 5 ft from the SE, short period of 9 seconds, and moderate energy (386). The wind is cross-off and clean, but the quality is marginal with questionable tide. Tuesday the 14th has a similar sized swell at 6 ft but with a choppy cross-shore wind, so it’s messy.

After that, from Wednesday the 15th onwards it’s back to tiny, weak swell with poor cross-onshore or onshore winds, and even some short-period windswell at 6 seconds on the 18th. Not worth paddling out.

Bottom line: Tuesday morning the 7th at Aha Rivermouth is the clear winner – clean, punchy, and meaty groundswell. If you’re good enough, that’s your session. Everything after that is either too big or too small for the next two weeks.

Rusty

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