Aha Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here again. Let’s cut to the chase—this 16-day outlook for Aha Rivermouth is a long, frustrating haul, with a couple of bright spots buried in there if you’re willing to wait. Right off the bat, things are flat and choppy, and that’s how it stays for the better part of the first week. The only real action doesn’t show up until a week from Monday, and the real gem only appears on the final Sunday, and that one’s strictly for the experienced crew. For a lot of this window, you might be better off with the kite.

Starting Sunday the 16th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft ENE swell, but a 15 km/h cross-shore breeze is putting a chop on it. Water temps are at 83°, which is around 0.9° colder than average, so nothing to write home about. That poor, small surf runs all through Monday and Tuesday, with the wind building to 35 km/h and making things lumpy and unpleasant. Wednesday the 19th brings a bit more size—around 7ft—but it’s short-period, the wind is howling at 35 km/h, and there are thunderstorms about. The energy is climbing to 601, but it’s all wasted.

Thursday the 20th is the first turn. The swell jumps to 8ft from the SE with a 10-second period, and the combined energy hits 1444. Finally, the wind shifts to a cross-off, leaving the surf clean. But the notes call it marginal, tide-dependent, and the direction isn’t right for this break. It’s sizeable and powerful—not for beginners. Then it fades away to nothing on Friday and Saturday the 21st and 22nd, dropping to 1ft.

That’s a dead spell until Monday the 24th. And that Monday morning is the first real highlight. We get a clean 4ft ESE swell with a long 15-second period and the combined energy at 727. The wind is glassy—absolutely still. This is proper, clean surf and a day for intermediates to have a ball. The long period means it’ll have some punch. The place shouldn’t be packed either. That’s your first good call.

The afternoon sees a light cross-on breeze, and it gets a little messier. Tuesday the 25th brings a bigger—6ft to 7ft—swell from the E with a 16-second period, but the wind is cross-on from the NNW at 25-30 km/h, and it’s chopped up and poor. Not worth your time.

Now, brace yourself. From Wednesday the 26th through Friday the 28th, the swell goes nuts. We’re talking 10ft to 13ft from the E and ENE, with periods of 15-17 seconds. The combined energy is huge—5700 all the way up to 7867. This is an enormous groundswell. But the wind is cross-shore and fresh, and the forecast is plain: this swell is too big for the break. It’s going to be a chaotic mess, and the notes say it outright. With that size, and the wind crossing it up, even the experts should stay away. It might genuinely be a better show for the kite surfers.

By Saturday the 29th, it’s coming down but still solid—7ft dropping to 6ft—with a cross-on breeze. Still not clean.

Sunday the 30th is the one. The swell settles to a solid 8ft from the north with a 12-second period, and the wind is glassy in the morning. The notes say it’s excellent for experienced surfers. The energy is at 1796, so there’s serious power. This is over the beginner limit, and it needs a good surfer who can handle size and current. But on a glassy morning like that, this break will be firing. That’s your standout day, no question.

Monday the 31st is a step down, with the swell at 6-6ft and the wind going onshore. Marginal.

So, bottom line: it’s a long, poor run for the first seven days. The first clean, rideable surf hits Monday the 24th. And the best, biggest, cleanest day is Sunday the 30th, but that’s for the big dogs only. Everything else is a write-off. Get the 24th and the 30th on your calendar, wear a good hood if you’re out early, and be patient. The surf comes, but you’ve got to work for it.

That’s all from me. Rusty.

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