Californias Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, grab a coffee and let’s talk waves.

Right out of the gate, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is pretty grim. We’re looking at a stretch from Monday the 17th all the way through to Monday the 24th of August that’s basically a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. You’ll see tiny, weak energy sliding in at times, like a 1ft NE windswell with a pathetic 10-second period on Monday, but the commentary says it all: poor conditions. The wind is mostly cross or onshore, and with total wave energy readings under 25 (23 on Monday morning, for example), there’s just nothing to get excited about. Even when we get a little burst of 5ft from the east on Wednesday the 19th, that wind is howling at 22 mph and it’s a stormy mess. The water temp is sitting around a warm 84°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We’ve got a solid gap with no real surfing through that first week. Then, just when you think it’s all over, Tuesday the 25th of August morning turns glassy – dead calm, 2ft of weak easterly swell, but it’s still too small to bother with. That’s the calm before the storm, literally.

Now listen, things go absolutely berserk from Wednesday the 26th. But this is a classic case of “be careful what you wish for.” Wednesday morning the 26th brings a thumping 8ft east-northeast groundswell with a long 15-second period – that’s a beautiful clean line-up on paper, with the combined swell energy reading a massive 4083. The wind is a light cross-shore from the NNW, so the ocean might look clean, but that wave height is already borderline for most. By Wednesday afternoon, we’re looking at 13ft from the north, period dropping to 9 seconds, still cross-shore at 12 mph. Then Thursday the 27th goes nuclear: 16ft from the north-northwest, period around 10 seconds, and the wind picks up to 19-22 mph – combined energy hits 4741. This is not for anyone without serious big-wave experience. The swell is too big, the wind is too strong, and the commentary calls it “marginal” at best. For a reef setup like this, that much long-period swell might just close out or get unruly. Honestly, for most folks, this window is more about spotting kitesurfing action than riding a surfboard.

The crazy weather continues right through the end of the month. Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th have winds screaming at 37 to 53 mph, with solid 10ft swell but the sea state is described as “ridiculous to paddle into.” The only window that might have some hope for a strong, experienced local is Sunday the 30th of August, when we get a 8ft to 10ft NW groundswell with a period of 11-12 seconds, and the wind swings to an offshore cross-off from the ESE. The energy is still huge (2940), but the wind is clean. Even then, that’s a heavy day for experts only.

The outlook doesn’t really settle down until the very end of the forecast – Tuesday the 1st of September. That morning we see a drop to 5ft from the NNW, with a short 7-second period, and clean cross-off winds. The energy has dropped to 491, which is moderate but manageable. The afternoon brings a shift to 3ft from the east with a 12-second period – that’s a touch longer period, but it’s small.

If I had to pick a true standout from this whole mess, it’s a tough call. The only day that offers a chance for someone who knows what they’re doing and has the quiver for it is Sunday the 30th of August. The clean offshore wind on a big, long-period NW swell is the best combo on offer. But it is still expert-only territory. For everyone else, put the boards away and maybe watch the ocean from the cliff. The forecast can always change, but this run looks locked in for a while.

Rusty out.

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