Yonabaru Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s break down the agony. It all kicks off with a proper tease on Friday the 7th. There’s some solid swell on the cards, pushing 3.0m with a long 15-second period from the east. The combined energy is a hefty 8438, so there’s plenty of water moving. But here’s the kicker – it’s blowing a gale from the WNW and there’s a thunderstorm risk. Even with the offshore wind, it’s going to be a complete mess and an absolute mission just to get out the back. The score is a flat zero for a reason. The water is sitting at 30°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s always a bit of a weird feeling when the surf is this chaotic.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are a write-off. The swell drops right off to a pathetic 0.6m and we get a severe gale swinging through on Saturday morning, followed by strong cross-shore winds. It’s just blown-out slop and cross-chop. No one is surfing this.

The middle of next week, from the 10th through the 13th, is more of the same story. We’ve got a dribble of east swell around 0.6m to 1.0m, but the periods are short and inconsistent. The wind doesn't give us a break, staying fresh and cross-shore. The water might look clean on the surface at times, but there’s no power in it at all. It's just not worth the paddle.

Then we hit the real flat zone. From the 13th to the 17th, the swell drops off a cliff. We’re talking about waves under 0.8m with periods of 5-6 seconds. The wind is light, but that doesn't matter when there’s nothing to catch. This is the dead part of the window. You’d be better off taking up kite surfing, because this stretch of beach-and-reef setup with no swell and light wind isn't doing anyone any favors for paddle surfing.

Now, for the one glimmer of hope. Around Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th, the models show a pulse of E/ESE swell. It’s not huge—up to 1.9m on the 19th and then 2.5m on the 20th—but it’s the most significant energy we see in the whole 16 days. The combined energy jumps to 1162 on Thursday, which at least starts to feel like a real swell. The catch? The period is short (7-9 seconds) and the wind is onshore and cross-onshore. That combination is going to make it choppy and a bit of a battle. At 2.5m, this is expert territory too, certainly not for beginners.

The wind is due to back off a bit for Friday the 21st, but the swell is starting to fade. We’ll get some 2.1m leftovers from the ESE, but it’s still cross-onshore. The last couple of days, the 22nd and 23rd, just fade out into small onshore slop again.

So, look. If you’re desperate, the 19th and 20th are your only real bet, but it’s a scrappy, powerful, short-period swell with wind against it. It’ll be a fight. The long-range promise of better days is there, but it’s a long way off and storm tracks can change. For now, keep the board in the car and the wax in the drawer. This one’s a waiting game.

Later, Rusty.

Read more