Laniakea Reef and Holtons Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one for the lineup. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off, with a real dry spell from Monday afternoon right through to the end of Saturday, the 26th of July. There are a couple of tiny bumps, but nothing worth paddling out for. The real story is a pulse of energy that shows up on the 26th, but even that comes with some serious question marks.

The first break we’re looking at is Laniakea Reef and Holtons. The water temp is sitting right on 79°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start with a bit of a tease on Monday morning, the 20th of July. There’s a tiny 0.7ft swell from the west with a long 12-second period, but the energy is weak (11). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 12 mph, which keeps the surface clean, but the swell is just too small to do anything. That’s the only surf to speak of for a while.

From Monday afternoon all the way through to Saturday morning, the 26th, it’s a desert. The energy drops to zero, and the ocean goes flat. There might be a few inches of wind chop, but that’s it. That’s a solid five days of flatness.

Then, on Sunday, the 26th of July, we finally see a pulse. The morning brings a 6ft swell from the NE, but with a short period of only 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 423 (moderate). The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph, so the surface is clean. But the wave comment flags it as “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”, so this isn’t a green light. It’s a bit of a gamble. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s pushing into territory that’s not ideal for beginners. The short period means the waves will be a bit crumbly and sectiony, not the clean lines you’d want.

The afternoon of the 26th holds similar energy, with a 6ft swell from the NE (344 combined energy), still cross-off wind. The 27th of July (Monday) sees it drop a little to 5ft, but the period stays short at 7 seconds (268 energy). The wind starts to shift to cross-shore, which introduces a bit of a chop and makes it less appealing.

After that, the energy drops off sharply. The 28th and 29th see small, weak swells with short periods, and the wind stays cross or cross-off. The 30th is flat again.

We do get a bit of a bump late on the 31st of July (Friday) into the 1st of August, with a 4ft, 9-second NE swell building to 335 energy under clean cross-off winds. But the comment is still “poor surf conditions”, so it’s not a standout. The water is clean, but the swell lacks the power and direction to make Laniakea Reef and Holtons really fire.

The best on offer in this whole 16-day window is that Sunday, the 26th of July. It’s the only period with a decent-sized swell and clean wind. But with the short period and the marginal tide note, it’s a wait-and-see situation. If you’re an experienced surfer and you’re desperate, you might get a few fun ones in the morning, but don’t expect a classic session. For the rest of the run, it’s board-rack time or a good excuse to find a kitesurfing spot if the wind picks up.

Rusty.

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