La Perouse Bay/The Dumps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook for La Perouse Bay / The Dumps is a real mixed bag. We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, but there’s some serious potential brewing for the more experienced crew if you’re patient.

So, here’s the deal for the next two weeks. The first week is pretty average to poor. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so don't worry about that.

Let’s kick off from Friday the 28th of August. We’ve got small 2ft S swell coming in, but with a solid 14-second period. The wind is a cross-off from the ENE, so it'll be clean, but the combined energy is weak at 339. Honestly, it’s only just surfable and the commentary matches – it’s a marginal call. Saturday the 29th sees a weird mix. There’s a 6ft E swell in the morning, but that’s got a terrible 6-second period; it’s just bumpy and weak. That drops right off in the arvo. Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st are back to tiny 2ft SW swell with long periods – looks clean but just not enough push to get excited about. The combined energy is weak (below 300). The commentary calls it ‘poor’ for most of those sessions, so I’m not gonna argue.

Things start to look a bit more promising heading into the first week of September. Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd are still only marginal with 3ft SSW swell. The wind stays cross-off, but the energy is starting to creep up. Wednesday arvo we get a jump to 5ft from the E with a 10-second period and energy hitting 856 – finally something with a bit of grunt, but still only rated as marginal.

Now, here’s the standout. If you can wait, the weekend of September 5th and 6th is where it's at. Saturday morning the 5th has 7ft of E swell, period is 10 seconds, and the combined energy is pumping at 1794 (strong). The wind is a gentle breeze from the NE – cross-off – keeping it clean. That swell is getting up over 7ft, so this is for advanced surfers only. The commentary says ‘excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers’ – that’s the one. It’s a bit big for beginners. That afternoon the wind actually swings to a light offshore from the NNE, but the swell drops to 5ft. Sunday the 6th keeps the 7ft E swell firing all day, energy is still strong at 1197 and clean.

After that peak, things get a little messy. Monday the 7th holds a solid 7ft E swell with a light offshore in the morning – that’s still a good, clean session for the experts. But by Tuesday the 8th, we've got a storm risk and the wind swings onshore, dropping the quality fast. From Wednesday the 9th onwards, it’s a real mixture of onshore wind and small, short-period swell. The end of the outlook from the 10th to the 12th of September looks mostly poor with cross-onshore wind, so I’d plan your sessions around that first weekend.

The Dumps is an advanced reef break that’s inconsistent, so it needs the right swell. It’s not gonna be packed with grommets. When it’s on, it’s a proper wave.

So, bottom line: sit tight through the slop and piddly waves this week. The real window is Saturday the 5th through Monday the 7th of September, with Saturday morning being the absolute cream of the crop. That E swell is going to be pumping. Get on it.

- Rusty

Read more