Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Gonna be a frustrating stretch ahead, folks. The whole sixteen-day window is lean, and honestly, when I look at what’s cookin’ at Deadman’s, it’s a whole lot of “meh” and “nope.” We’re talkin’ an advanced-level beach and reef set-up that’s fairly exposed, and the optimum swell direction is from the NW. Crowds? You’ll likely see folks out there often, but that won’t matter much because the surf just isn’t cooperating.

The water temperature is sitting at 62°F – that’s 5°F above normal for this time of year. Yeah, it’s much warmer than usual, so at least it won’t be a shock when you get in, but that’s about the only good news.

The first half of the run is straight-up grim. Wednesday the 5th through Sunday the 9th of August is a solid block of poor surf conditions. Swell is tiny, mostly 1ft to 2ft from the SW, short period, and the wind is cross-shore and messy. Sunday the 9th morning bumps up to 6ft from the WNW, but it’s still cross-shore, and the energy is moderate (528). The comment says “marginal,” so it’s still not worth paddling out for.

We finally see a flicker of hope on Monday the 10th morning. Swell holds at 5ft from the WNW, period a mediocre 10 seconds, but the wind switches to a clean cross-offshore. The energy is still moderate (530), and it’s marked as “marginal,” but it’s the first time the wave face might actually have a bit of shape. Not a standout, just a “maybe if you’re desperate.”

Tuesday the 11th is back to poor with cross-shore wind. Then Wednesday the 12th morning—this is the closest thing we’ve got to a highlight in the first two weeks. Swell is 5ft from the WNW, period 10 seconds, energy moderate (518), and we get clean conditions with a gentle cross-offshore breeze. The guide gives it a nod with “expect good surf conditions.” It’s not epic, but it’s the cleanest window in a dusty forecast. That morning is your best bet for a session that won’t frustrate you.

After that, it falls apart again. Thursday the 13th through Monday the 17th is mostly poor surf with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds, lumpy chop, and dropping swell. Tuesday the 18th is a write-off. But then Wednesday the 19th morning shows a bigger pulse: 7ft from the NW, period 8 seconds, and the energy jumps to strong (1021). That’s legitimate size for advanced crew, but the wind is cross-onshore and it’s listed as “marginal.” At that size, with that short period and onshore push, it’s going to be a messy, lumpy beast. For experts only, and even then, maybe more of a challenge than a pleasure.

So, truth be told, there’s no single standout session here. If I had to pick the best on offer, it’s that Wednesday 12th morning—clean, 5ft, cross-offshore wind. That’s your window. The bigger pulse on the 19th could be interesting for the bold, but conditions won’t do it any favours.

Hang in there. It’s been a lean run, but forecasts shift, and it won’t stay this flat and messy forever.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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