Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Alright, lookin’ at the next 16 days for Deadman’s, and I gotta be straight with ya – it’s a tough stretch. This spot is a beach and reef setup, and it’s normally pretty exposed, but the wind and swell just aren’t lining up for clean paddle surfing. The whole first week is a write-off. We’re seeing a lot of cross-shore wind, mainly from the SW and WSW, and the wave quality is just poor. Water temp is sitting at 62°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when there’s no surf.

Monday afternoon kicks off with a 5 ft WNW swell, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore at 16 mph, so it’s chopped up. The combined swell energy is moderate at 487, but it doesn’t mean a thing with the wind on it. Tuesday morning actually drops to a gentler breeze, but the swell is down to 4 ft, and it’s still cross-shore. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday – all the same story. Tiny little waves, 1 ft to 2 ft, with periods granting some long-period groundswell (14 to 19 seconds), but there’s no power and the wind keeps it messy. Saturday morning on the 8th has a bit of a window with a light breeze and a 4 ft WNW swell, but again, it’s cross-shore and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s weak and won’t hold shape.

Now, the first real standout comes on Sunday, the 9th of August. The morning brings a solid 7 ft NW swell, with a combined energy of 1244 – that’s strong wave energy. But hold your horses. For a spot like this, that’s too big for most, and it’s cross-shore wind at 9 mph. The forecast says “marginal,” so it’s a tricky one. At 7 ft, it’s only for experts. The swell direction is NW, which is a bit off the optimum NW, so it’s not perfect, but you might find a few. The afternoon is a write-off with stronger wind.

The best bet of the whole run is probably Monday morning, the 10th of August. We’ve got a 6 ft WNW swell, and for the only time in the forecast, the wind is cross-offshore (SW at 9 mph). That’ll clean it up nicely. The combined energy is 537 – moderate – and the period is 9 seconds, so it’s not a groundswell. It’s still an advanced-level wave given the size, but it’s the cleanest we’ll see. Crowds are often here, so expect company.

After that, it’s back to small, messy, cross-shore conditions for the rest of the second week. Tuesday the 11th has a 5 ft swell, but it’s cross-shore again. The energy drops off. From Wednesday the 12th onward, we’re looking at tiny waves, 2 ft to 3 ft, with long periods (15 to 19 seconds), but the wind is always cross or cross-on, and it’s just not worth paddling out. The combined energy stays moderate, but the quality is poor. The last few days, from the 17th, the wind goes cross-on, making it choppy.

Honestly, with the consistent cross-shore winds and the size of the swell on the 9th, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of the period. The only real window for a surf is the Monday morning on the 10th, and that’s a long way off. For now, I’d say wait and see if the forecasts change, because it’s a bleak run.

Rusty

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