Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break this down. Looking at the whole 16-day window for Deadman's, it's a weird run. There's a lot of onshore wind and messy conditions to sift through, with just a few bright spots. The water's sitting at a very unusual 66°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year.

The first few days are pretty much a write-off. Saturday and Sunday the 12th and 13th are dominated by a fresh cross-onshore breeze, making the surf poor and lumpy. The energy is there, with the combined swell energy hitting 410 to 478, but it's all wind-affected junk.

Monday morning the 14th, things finally go glassy. The wind drops to 3 mph from the west, and we get a clean 5 ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period. The combined energy is a strong 475. This is the first real chance for a paddle, with clean, glassy conditions. It'll be decent, but the afternoon winds pick up again and ruin it.

Tuesday morning the 15th is another clean window with a light cross-offshore breeze and 5 ft of WNW swell. Again, the morning is the only time to go before the onshore winds trash it.

There's a big gap of poor to marginal conditions from Wednesday the 16th through to Monday the 21st. The energy is mostly moderate to strong, but the wind is just not playing ball, with onshore or cross-shore chop most of the time. Some of these swells are long-period groundswell pushing 17 to 19 seconds, but they're just not lining up with the wind.

Now, the standout. Tuesday the 22nd morning is back to glassy conditions, with 3 mph winds and a 5 ft WNW swell. The energy is a strong 644. This will be clean and fun.

But the real winner is Wednesday the 23rd of September. This is the one to circle. We’re looking at a 7 ft swell from the WNW with a very long period of 12 seconds, and a combined energy reading of 1295—that's a powerful groundswell. The morning comes with a light cross-offshore breeze and clean conditions. For an advanced break like Deadman's, this is the best on offer. That 7 ft swell is solid, and with that period and clean wind, it's going to be excellent. It's over the 5 ft mark, so it'll be a handful for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the day.

Thursday the 24th morning is also good, with a clean 4 ft swell, but it's not quite the same as Wednesday.

The last few days of the window drop back into smaller, weaker, and choppier conditions. Friday the 25th morning has a tiny, glassy 2 ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period, which might give a few clean little runners on the right tide, but it's pretty small.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a bust except for the clean mornings on the 14th, 15th, and the glass-off on the 22nd. The absolute standout is the morning of Wednesday the 23rd of September. That's the one to wait for.

Rusty

Read more