Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a long, 16-day look at Deadman's, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The pattern is dominated by a persistent cross-shore wind and a lot of short-period, onshore wind swell that’s going to leave the surface messy. The water is weirdly warm, 63°, which is a massive 6° above average for this time of year – feels like a different season.

Tuesday morning, we kick things off with a bit of hope. There’s a 4ft swell pushing in from the SW, but it’s got a super long 18-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, but for a beach-and-reef setup, that long period can make it break a bit straight and fat. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s not completely blown out, but the combined energy is moderate (883). The score says it’s marginal, and I’d agree. The afternoon is a write-off – that cross-on wind jumps to 16 mph and the surface gets choppy. Wednesday through Friday will be a rinse-and-repeat of morning cross-shore breezes and afternoon onshore junk. The swell is small, mostly 3ft to 6ft, and mixed with short 7-8 second periods, which means weak, fat waves. The energy stays moderate, but it’s not quality.

Saturday, August 1st, the swell picks up a bit. The morning sees a 7ft NW swell, but the period is still short at 8 seconds. The wind is super light, almost glassy at 3 mph, but the wave comment says it’s marginal. The energy is strong (1076), but the short period means it’s a lumpy, sectiony mess. The afternoon is no good with onshore chop. Sunday, August 2nd, the morning holds 7ft from the WNW with a slightly better 10-second period. The wind is light cross, so it’s cleaner, and the energy is moderate (764). The afternoon is cross-shore, not total junk, but not great.

Now, the standout window looks like Monday, August 3rd. The morning is the best this whole run gets. A 6ft swell from the WNW with a 10-second period, light cross-offshore wind from the SSW, and the report says "clean". That’s the only time we see those words. The energy is moderate (616), but it’s the best combo of size, direction, and wind. This is the one to paddle out for. The afternoon gets windier again, but the morning session is the pick of the entire 16 days.

After that, the rest of the week and into the second week drops off. The swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft, but the period stays short, and the wind is always some kind of cross or cross-on. The afternoons are particularly rough. The last few days, from August 10th to the 12th, the swell tries to nudge up a bit – 5ft to 5ft with a 9-second period – but the wind is never truly offshore. The energy is moderate (518 to 732), but the quality just isn’t there. It’s a long stretch of "meh". For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a poor run. If you’re a beginner, stay away when the swell is over 5ft, which happens a few times, and definitely don’t paddle out when it’s over 8ft, but that doesn’t happen here. Honestly, with the persistent cross-wind and short-period, choppy conditions, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days. Keep an eye on the Monday morning, August 3rd – that’s your one shot.

Rusty.

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