Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, letting you know how things are shaping up.

To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag at Deadman’s. This spot is a beach and reef setup, advanced-level only, and fairly exposed to the NW. It’s a crowd favourite too—expect company out there.

The water temp is sitting at 62°F right now, which is a massive 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s very unusual, almost like someone turned the heater on.

We’re looking at a long gap before anything decent arrives. The first few days, from Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 15th, are pretty much a write-off. Swell is small, cross and cross-on winds are making a mess of things, and the wave quality is poor. Wave energy is weak to moderate—best we see in that stretch is around 276 for Monday morning, but the wind and chop kill it. Marginal at best, and really not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon kicks up a bit: 6ft from the WNW, period at 8 seconds, but with cross-on winds at 12 mph, it’s choppy and messy. Energy climbs to 457—moderate—but the conditions don’t back it up. Not a stand-out.

Thursday the 16th morning has 6ft WNW, 8-second period, lighter cross breeze (9 mph), and energy hits 650. Still, it’s marginal. The afternoon jumps to 8ft and 1062 energy, but the cross-on wind at 16 mph from the west makes it a chop fest. That’s expert-only territory if you’re brave, but it won’t be pretty.

Friday 17th morning is your first real window to consider: 5ft WNW, 8-second period, light cross breeze, energy at 631. Still only marginal—but it’s cleaner than anything before. Not a classic, but for this run, it’s the best we’ve seen.

Things drop off again after that. Saturday 18th morning is marginal with 4ft, but the afternoon sees a 2ft, 18-second groundswell from the SW. Long-period, clean-ish, but tiny. Energy is odd there—557 with that tiny height, so it’s likely very inconsistent and weak. Not a goer.

Sunday 19th through to Wednesday 22nd is mostly poor or marginal. The swell stays small, wind stays cross or cross-on. Energy dips below 500. A few morning windows with light breeze might look okay on paper, but the wave quality is poor.

Here’s the standout: Thursday 23rd July morning. 5ft from the WNW, 8-second period, light SW breeze (6 mph), cross-shore and clean. Energy is 519—moderate. That’s the cleanest, most surfable session in this whole stretch. The wind is right, the size is manageable for advanced surfers, and it’s not too big. Crowds will be likely at Deadman’s, though.

Friday 24th morning has a weird one: 1ft, 25-second period from the SW. That’s an incredibly long-period groundswell, but tiny. Energy at 429 suggests the ocean has some push, but the height is just too small to ride. The afternoon bumps to 2ft and 24 seconds, energy jumps to 840, but cross-on chop spoils it.

Saturday 25th July morning: 3ft from the SW, 21-second period, almost no wind at 3 mph, cross-shore and clean. Energy is 1065—strong. This is the other true highlight. Clean, glassy conditions with a very long-period groundswell pushing through. At Deadman’s, that kind of period works well, and the light wind makes it look tempting. It’s still small for that energy, so there’ll be long lulls but good-shaped waves when they come. A very promising, though still distant, option.

Sunday 26th July morning: 4ft SW, 20-second period, light cross breeze, energy at 1138—strong. Conditions are clean, but it’s another long-range, long-period groundswell. Consistent enough, and a solid way to end the outlook.

Overall, this area has a long dry spell through the first week. Thursday 23rd July morning and Saturday 25th July morning are the two windows worth circling on the calendar. The rest is either small, choppy, or both. Keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer—things can change.

Rusty.

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