Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. The conditions are just not playing ball. We've got a solid run of poor surf quality and cross-onshore winds that are gonna mess things up. The first real chance for a surf doesn't even show up until Monday morning the 27th, and even then, it's only a marginal prospect.

Let's start with what's on offer. The only spot we're looking at is Deadman's, a beach and reef setup that's best for advanced surfers. The water temp is sitting at 63°F, which is a whopping 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that's a very unusual warm spell, so you might not need a thick wetsuit.

From now until Sunday the 26th, forget it. It's all cross-onshore wind, choppy, and the wave comments are all "poor surf conditions". The swell is a tiny 2ft to 3ft from the SW with a long period, but that wind just kills it. The combined energy is moderate (in the 600s to 800s), but it's not doing us any favours.

Our first sniff of something is Monday morning, July 27th. The wind switches to a light cross-shore breeze, and the swell is 3ft from the SW with a period of 18 seconds – that's a long period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (781). The call is "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions". It's not great, but it's the best we've got. The long period might make it a bit wally at a beach break, but on a reef it could have some shape. Just be aware of the tricky tide.

The rest of that week and into the next is a write-off. The wind is back to being cross-onshore, and the swell jumps to 8ft on Wednesday afternoon the 29th, but with a short period of 8 seconds and a fresh cross-onshore breeze, it'll be a lumpy, choppy mess. That's more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle one.

We get a few more marginal mornings on the 30th and 31st of July, with light cross-shore winds and 3ft to 5ft swell, but the wave comments are still poor. The combined energy drops right off into the 200s on the 31st, which is weak.

The first week of August looks better on paper for swell size, but the wind is still a problem. On Saturday morning, August 1st, we see 7ft from the NW with a short 8-second period. That's over 5ft, so it's getting too big for beginners, and the light cross-shore wind is the only thing keeping it from being a total loss. The combined energy is strong (1026), but the short period means it'll be fat and crumbly. It's a marginal call at best.

The rest of the first week of August keeps up the 5ft to 6ft swells, but it's all cross-shore or cross-onshore winds with moderate to fresh breezes. The combined energy stays in the moderate range (300-600s), but the wave comments are all "poor surf conditions". There is no standout session here.

By the second week, things fade. The second Saturday, August 8th, has swell down to 3ft with a weak energy of 98. It's a dud.

So, the honest truth? There's no true standout. The best of a bad bunch is Monday morning, July 27th at Deadman's, with that light cross-shore wind and a 3ft SW groundswell. It's a long shot, but the tide might be kind. The forecast is more reliable for the near-term, so that Monday is your best bet. For the longer range, that Saturday August 1st morning has size, but the short period makes it a gamble. Keep an eye on the wind, but don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more