Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Deadman's over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. The next 16 days are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle session. We’ve got a long stretch of "poor surf conditions" stamped all over the forecast. The first real glimmer of anything surfable doesn’t show up until Wednesday morning, July 15th, and even then it’s marginal. Before that, from now through Tuesday, July 14th, it’s a write-off – small, weak swell with a messy cross-shore wind. The combined wave energy is low (233 on Monday morning), so you’re not missing a thing.

The first day that might get your hopes up is Wednesday, July 15th, morning. The swell bumps up to 6 ft from the WNW, with a period of 8 seconds – that’s short period, wind swell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy. The combined energy climbs to 618 (moderate), and the wind is a light cross-shore from the SW. That’s the best wind we see all week, but it’s still a cross-shore, not clean offshore. The score is a 1 out of 10, so honestly, it’s only for the die-hards who don’t mind a bit of chop. The break is a beach and reef setup, fairly exposed, and it’s an advanced wave. At 6 ft, it’s pushing into the 'too big for beginners' zone, but with that short period, it won’t have much punch.

After that, Thursday July 16th keeps the same size but the wind gets worse – cross-on and stronger. Then Friday July 17th sees a weird drop to 2 ft, but with a long period of 17 seconds from the west. That’s a groundswell, but it’s tiny. The combined energy is still moderate (546 on Friday morning), but the cross-onshore wind from the west at 12–15 mph will chop it to pieces. That’s a no-go.

The next potential window is Monday morning, July 20th. Swell jumps back to 6 ft from the NW, 8 seconds, with a light cross-shore SW wind. The combined energy hits 725 (moderate), and the score is a 2 out of 10 – the best we see in the whole 16 days. That’s the standout, but it’s a weak standout. The period is still short, so don’t expect any real power. The wind is "light cross-shore with small crossing wind ripples," so the surface might be a little bumpy, but it’s the best wind we get. Crowds are "often" here, so you’ll have company, but with this quality, it might be quieter.

After that, it’s back to the same pattern: small, short-period swell, cross-shore or cross-onshore winds, and poor conditions. The second week is a dead zone – nothing worth getting wet for. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

So, what’s the call? The only real standout is Monday, July 20th, morning. If you’re desperate, you might get a few 6 ft waves at Deadman's (King Island) with a light cross-shore breeze. It’s an advanced spot, so don’t take the beginners. Expect a bit of a bumpy surface, but it’s the best you’re going to get. For everyone else, save your wax and wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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