Cowries Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the local outlook for our region. It’s a quiet start, so don’t rush to wax up just yet. There’s a long dry spell to get through before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

We’re looking at a pretty flat and uninspiring run to kick things off. The first real chance of a wave doesn’t come until Wednesday morning, September 2nd, and even then it’s barely a ripple. The combined swell energy is weak at 114, with a tiny 2ft S swell and a 10-second period. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is just about average for this time of year, nothing wild. That morning the wind is a light cross-shore from the NNW, which is okay, but the surf is just poor. Not worth the drive.

Through Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday, the swell stays small and the conditions are ordinary. We get a bit of offshore wind from the WSW on Thursday morning, but that 2ft S swell (energy 84) is barely a bump. Friday morning shapes up a little better with a 2ft S swell (energy 119) and a slight cross-off breeze, but it’s still just “surfable but very ordinary”. Not a standout by any means.

The weekend is a write-off. Saturday and Sunday have some wind and tiny, weak swells. Sunday afternoon sees a jump to 4ft from the S, but with a cross-on ESE wind and a combined energy of 471, the quality is poor. That 12-second period is a bit longer, but it’s not enough to save it with the onshore breeze chopping it up.

Then we hit a real gap. From Monday, September 7th, through to Tuesday the 8th, and all the way into the following week, it’s a mix of weak swells, poor wind, and low energy. There’s a glassy moment on Monday morning with 3ft from the SSE (energy 172), but the break is inconsistent and the waves are still just ordinary. The crowds can show up sometimes here, but there’s nothing to crowd for.

The big event doesn’t arrive until Thursday, September 10th. That morning, we get a massive 12ft S swell (combined energy 2407) with a light cross-shore from the SSE. The wind is favorable, but let’s be real – that size is only for the experts. Over 8ft, it’s a beast. The swell direction is from the S, which matches the optimum ENE direction only partially, but the sheer power is undeniable. The afternoon is similar, 12ft from the SSE, but with an onshore ENE wind, so the morning window is the pick if you’ve got the skills and the nerve. This is the true standout of the whole forecast, but it’s a long way off and less certain.

After that, Friday September 11th drops to 6ft from the S (energy 830), but with a cross-on NE wind, it’s marginal. The following weekend into the second week is a mix of small, messy swells and poor wind. There’s a stretch from the 12th to the 15th where nothing really hits the mark – just weak E and ENE swells with cross-on winds. The energy stays under 400 most of the time.

The last few days, from the 16th onwards, are a total fade-out. Small 2ft to 1ft ENE swells, strong cross-off winds, and even some rain. The combined energy drops as low as 32 by Thursday the 17th. Honestly, it looks more like a kitesurfing setup for the exposed beach breaks than a paddler’s paradise. The poor conditions and onshore winds make it a write-off.

So, to sum it up: if you’re a beginner, stay home until the swell drops back under 5ft, which doesn’t happen cleanly. For the experts, mark your calendar for Thursday, September 10th, early morning at Cowries – that’s your one big shot, but treat it with respect. Everything else is a long, flat wait.

Rusty.

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