Cowries Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a proper look at what’s on the menu for Cowries over the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, the outlook is a bit of a slow burn. Cowries is a reef and point setup, usually pretty consistent, and it’s fairly exposed to the swell, but across the next week or so, we’re looking at a whole lot of small, weak, and messy conditions. The wind is mostly cross-on or cross-off, which isn’t helping, and the swell energy is on the low side. The water temp is sitting at 65°F at the start, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no complaints on the warmth front.

We kick off Wednesday afternoon, the 19th of August, with small 3 ft swell from the ESE, but it’s a short 10-second period and the wind is a cross-on 25 km/h from the NE. Not great. The combined energy is a weak 157, and it’s just choppy and poor. That theme continues through Thursday and Friday with tiny waves and light tricky winds. The swell is barely pushing 2 ft, and the energy is dropping into the double digits. Friday morning actually goes clean with a cross-off wind, but the swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the ENE. Not much to work with.

Saturday the 22nd is a dead day, with a tiny 1 ft S swell early on, then a messy 3 ft cross-on ESE in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday are more of the same – small, weak, and uninspiring.

Then things start to shift. On Tuesday the 25th of August, we finally see a pulse of energy. The swell pushes to 4 ft from the ENE in the morning, climbing to 4 ft from the NE by the afternoon. The wind is light and cross-off, keeping things clean. The combined energy hits 140 and 195 – still moderate, but it’s surfable. The catch? It’s raining, and the conditions are described as "very ordinary". Still, it’s the best we’ve seen in a week.

Wednesday the 26th gets blown out by a near-gale from the south, with 50 km/h winds. The swell is around 3 ft but the energy is weak. Clean, but you’d be stupid to paddle out in that wind. That theme continues through the end of the week, with stronger winds and building swell, but the wind is cross-off or cross, so the waves stay clean, but the energy is moderate.

Now, the real standout comes much later. On Sunday the 30th of August, we see a solid jump in size. The morning has 7 ft S swell, with a combined energy of 749 (moderate), and by the afternoon it’s 8 ft S, with a strong energy of 1568. The wind is onshore from the ENE at 15 km/h, which is a letdown, but the swell is serious. This is probably too big for beginners, and the onshore wind will make it lumpy. Still, it’s a proper pulse.

But the real monster is on Monday the 31st of August. The swell is 16 ft from the south at 14 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is a massive 13945, which is strong to very strong. The wind is onshore from the ENE at 20 km/h, but the swell is so big it’s predicted to be *too big* for this break. This is experts-only territory, and even then, only if you’re comfortable with a big, powerful, onshore S swell. The long period (14 seconds) means better-shaped waves, but at a reef and point, it could be a beast. This is the one that stands out if you’re an experienced charlie.

The first few days of September continue with massive swell, 12 ft to 15 ft, but consistently onshore wind. The energy is in the thousands, so it’s powerful, but the conditions are marginal at best. The break is going to be handling a lot of water, and the wind and tide are working against it.

So, the best window? Honestly, the pick of the lot is Monday the 31st of August, if you’re a big-wave expert and don’t mind onshore wind. The swell is massive, long period, and the energy is off the charts. For everyday surfers, the Tuesday the 25th of August is the most realistic option – small, clean, but ordinary. After that, the second week is all about size and power, but with poor wind and marginal conditions. The crowds at Cowries can be a factor sometimes, but with this kind of forecast, it’ll likely be quiet.

Rusty.

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