Cowries Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. This 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag, with a couple of solid windows, but you gotta be patient.

The water’s sitting at 65°, which is a degree warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s got that slight edge of unusual warmth, taking the chill off the early morning paddle out at Cowries.

The first real chance to get wet starts Thursday morning, July 9th. Cowries is seeing a 5ft SE swell with an 11-second period, and the energy is moderate (721). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, making for clean surf. The waves will be a bit lumpy on the sets, but it’s a solid, rideable size for most. Thursday afternoon stays clean, same size, with a lighter breeze. Friday morning holds the same 5ft, 10-second SE swell, still clean. This is a decent, steady run of surf.

Saturday morning, July 11th, the swell drops to 4ft SE, still clean, but the energy is weakening (330). The long window of small surf sets in from Saturday afternoon through to July 14th. The swells dip below 3ft, and the energy drops to very weak levels (as low as 17). The wind is offshore, but the waves are just too small to get excited about. It’s a real flat spell.

Then things wake up in a big way. Wednesday, July 15th, sees a 5ft windswell from the south, but the period is short (8 seconds) and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-offshore, making it choppy and messy. The energy is moderate (219), but the quality is poor. That’s just a tease.

The real event is a big slug of southerly swell arriving on July 16th. Thursday morning has an 12ft swell from the SSE, with a 10-second period. The energy is very strong (1814). The wind is a fresh cross-shore, creating lumpy, cross-chop conditions. This is a case of the numbers being too big for the break. For experts only, and even then, the wind is making it a messy, heavy beast. It’s pushing past 8ft, so it’s a no-go for the average punter. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

That big swell hangs around through Friday the 17th and into Saturday the 18th, peaking with a massive 3858 energy reading. The swell is 10ft from the SE, but the wind is still cross-shore, keeping it lumpy. Not the clean, organised lines you want.

The standout of the whole outlook comes on Saturday afternoon, July 18th. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft from the SE, still with an 11-second period. The energy is still strong (1138), but the wind finally swings to a light cross-offshore breeze. The surf will be clean, powerful, and lined up. This is the best session on offer. Crowds are possible at Cowries, so get in the water early.

The last week tails off nicely. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th offer clean, 6ft and 4ft waves from the ESE, with light winds. Good surf, but not as punchy as that Saturday. The rest of the period into July 24th fades to smaller, offshore winds, but the energy is weak and the surf becomes ordinary.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a solid, clean start. Then a big, messy, expert-only swell mid-month. The real golden ticket is the Saturday afternoon, July 18th. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty.

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