Capitola Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's have a look at what's coming down the line for us.

Right off the bat, it's a bit of a slow start. The first week or so is looking pretty lackluster. We've got a tiny, long-period groundswell from the SW rolling in, but it's just not got the juice. For Friday the 17th through to Sunday the 20th, the swell is hovering around 1ft to 2ft. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting between 158 and 394 (weak to moderate energy). The wind is light and onshore, and the surf report is calling it "poor surf conditions". You're not missing a thing.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Tuesday the 21st. The swell picks up to 3ft in the morning, bumping to 5ft in the afternoon from the SSW, with a period dropping to 12-15 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 632-639 (moderate energy). The catch is, the wind is still onshore, and the report says it's "marginal" due to tide issues. It's small, but it's the first sign of life.

We then hit a bit of a lull again from Wednesday the 22nd through Thursday the 23rd, with the swell dropping back to 2ft to 3ft. The energy is back down between 260 and 414 (moderate energy). It's still not exciting.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. On Friday the 24th, we get a pulse of very long-period groundswell. The swell height is only 2ft to 2ft, but the period is a massive 24 seconds! That's a proper groundswell, and the combined energy shoots up to 670-823 (moderate to strong energy). The wind is light and onshore, but the report is still calling it "marginal surf conditions". For a sheltered spot like Capitola Rivermouth, this long-period swell should wrap in nicely, but at a beach/jetty, it might break a bit too straight. Keep an eye on it.

The standout of the whole forecast, without a doubt, is Saturday the 25th. The morning is a bit "marginal" with a 3ft SSW swell and very long period of 21 seconds, with combined energy at a strong 1160 (strong energy). But the real magic is Saturday afternoon. The wind switches to a glassy calm, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions". The swell is a clean 3ft from the SSW at 21 seconds, with energy at 1090 (strong energy). This is the best on offer. The water is currently 62°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a bonus.

Sunday the 26th through Monday the 27th sees the swell holding around 3ft to 4ft with periods of 17-19 seconds, and energy levels staying strong between 945 and 1674 (strong to very strong energy). The wind is light, but it's mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it won't be as clean as that Saturday afternoon glass-off. Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th keep the swell at 4ft to 5ft with 16-17 second periods, but the energy is still strong (909-1526). The wind remains onshore, so the quality will be a bit lumpy.

After that, from Thursday the 30th through to Saturday the 1st of August, the swell drops off again. We're back to 2ft to 3ft from the S and SSW, with periods dropping to 12-16 seconds, and energy levels fall back to 241-603 (moderate energy). The wind is cross-onshore for most of this, and the report is calling it "poor surf conditions" again. The run of decent surf is over.

So, the call is clear: if you want a wave, you're waiting for Saturday the 25th. That Saturday afternoon glass-off with the 3ft SSW groundswell is the standout. It's small, but it will be clean and fun. The long period groundswell at the Rivermouth should wrap in nicely for a long, cruisy ride. The crowds are likely to be "sometimes" a problem on a Saturday like that, so get out there early or late.

Rusty.

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