Asilomar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: this 16-day window for Asilomar is a tough one. The overall pattern is a long stretch of poor conditions. The wind is nearly always onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is mixed up but never really coming together with clean, offshore winds. We’re looking at a solid 16-day run with no real standouts, just a few sessions that are barely worth a paddle.

The first mention of any surf comes on Monday, July 13th. We’ve got a little 2ft SSW swell rolling in with a 13-second period. The combined energy is weak (343). But the wind is cross-onshore from the west at 6 mph, which makes it choppy and messy. The water is about average for the time of year. Honestly, it’s a light breeze, but it’s the wrong direction for this exposed west-facing beach and reef setup. Not a great start.

Tuesday, July 14th, the swell flips to a short-period 3ft WNW (8 seconds) in the morning, but it’s onshore wind from the NW. The energy is moderate (187) but the quality is poor. Afternoon drops to 2ft and stays cross-onshore. This is not the kind of day you rush home from work for.

Wednesday, July 15th, we see a bit more size – 3ft to 4ft WNW, but with a short 8-second period and onshore to cross-onshore wind. The combined energy moves into the moderate range (263 to 382), but it’s all chop. Thursday, July 16th, gets up to 4ft and 5ft WNW with a bit more period (9 seconds), but the wind is onshore and building to 12-16 mph. The energy is climbing (447-515), but it’s a blown-out mess.

The pattern doesn’t relent. From Friday, July 17th, through the end of the period, we’re stuck with a mix of small SW and WNW swells, with periods that swing from short 8-second junk to long-period 19-20 second groundswells. Those long-period swells (20 seconds on July 26th) carry a lot of energy (658-713), but they’re hitting a beach-and-reef break with steady onshore winds. For a spot like this, long-period swells need offshore wind to be good, and we’re not getting it. The wind is consistently from the NW or WNW, putting it right in our face.

The best you can hope for is a couple of "marginal" mornings on July 19th and 20th, with cleanish conditions and a light breeze, but the swell is tiny (2ft-2ft) and from the SW. The energy is moderate (508-594), but the wave comment says it’s questionable. This is a very long stretch of poor surf. For a spot that’s usually consistent, this is a frustrating blank run. If you’re not a surfer, the strong onshore winds and building swell later in the month (like the 3ft S swell on July 25th) would actually be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Stay patient, folks. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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