Bicentenial Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, let’s be straight with it – this 16-day run for the Bicentennial Park reef is a real struggle. The swell’s tiny, the direction is mostly from the east and southeast, but the energy is just not there. The water’s sitting at 82°, which is about a degree colder than you’d expect for this time of year, so it’s a touch cool but nothing crazy.

Looking at the start, Wednesday 29 July afternoon sees weak 1ft east swell with a 9-second period and a combined energy of only 15 – that’s weak. The wind is offshore from the southwest at 16 mph, but the surf is so small it’s barely a ripple. Thursday 30 July morning is similar, 1ft from the ESE at 9 seconds, energy of 18, with a WSW offshore at 12 mph. Still, the comment says “poor surf conditions,” so I wouldn’t bother.

Friday 31 July morning is a joke – 0.3ft east swell, 9 seconds, energy of 4. The afternoon gets a bit better: 0.7ft east, 9 seconds, energy of 13, and a glassy south breeze at 3 mph. That’s clean but still tiny. It stays in this range all through the first week: 0.7ft to 1ft, periods of 8 to 9 seconds, and energy rarely cracking 30. By Sunday 2 August afternoon, we finally see a bump – 3ft southeast swell at 8 seconds, energy of 148 (that’s moderate energy), with a cross-off SSW breeze at 9 mph. The comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and I’d score it a 1 out of 10. That’s the best on offer for the first week, but it’s nothing to get excited about – short period, messy, and just not fun.

Monday 3 August afternoon gives us 4ft southeast swell at a lousy 5-second period, energy of 104 (still moderate), with offshore west wind at 12 mph. That wind is good, but the period is so short it’ll be crumbly and weak. Still poor.

Now, a gap of several days follows: from Tuesday 4 August right through to Sunday 9 August, there’s no surf worth recommending. The swell stays between 1ft and 4ft, but wind and conditions just don’t line up. A lot of onshore or cross-onshore wind from the east and southeast makes it choppy. On Friday 7 August afternoon, the swell hits 4ft east at 9 seconds, with a combined energy of 422 (strong energy) – that’s the meat of the run, but the wind is onshore from the east at 9 mph, so it’s blown out. “Poor surf conditions” says it all.

From 10 August onward, it’s back to tiny: 0.7ft to 2ft, energy under 65, with mostly cross-shore or onshore wind. The last highlight is Thursday 13 August morning – a 0.7ft ENE swell with an 11-second period (that’s a long-period groundswell), energy of 34, with a clean, cross-off northwest wind at 6 mph. The period is good, but the swell is just too small to hold up. The reef might start to shape up, but you’d need a bigger push.

Look, the only day with anything resembling a wave is Sunday 2 August afternoon – 3ft, moderate energy, clean cross-off wind. That’s your best bet, but it’s still ordinary. For beginners, anything over 5ft is spooky, but we never even hit that. The reef is inconsistent anyway, and it rarely breaks well. If you’re a kite surfer, those afternoons with side-onshore wind and a little chop might be fun, but for a paddle surfer? It’s a tough stretch. The fact that nothing is consistent here means this kind of blank run is pretty normal for the area, but forecasts can change – don’t lose hope.

Rusty.

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