Xa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking in on the local lineup. We've got a bit of a wait on our hands, but there's a little window of clean conditions later on that might just be worth the patience.

Honestly, looking at the next ten days or so, it's a bit of a struggle. The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the swell is pretty messy. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, nothing weird there. Right now, Tuesday the 14th, we've got a 7ft swell from the south, but with a 30 km/h cross-off wind, it's just a lumpy, choppy mess. The energy is moderate, around 643, but it's not a pretty picture. That afternoon it drops to 6ft and goes to a cross-shore wind, so it's not worth paddling out for. The next few days are a write-off – the wind keeps chopping it up, despite some 5ft to 6ft south-east swells with a decent 11-second period.

There's a real dry spell here from the 15th right through until the morning of Thursday the 24th. Over a week of mostly poor surf with onshore or cross-onshore winds turning the ocean into a washing machine. The swell energy drops off a cliff, with numbers in the 100s and 200s showing how weak it is. For a spot like Xa, which is a super consistent reef break, this is a frustrating run.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. On the morning of Thursday the 24th of July, the wind is forecast to go completely glassy. A 0 km/h wind. That is a massive positive. The swell will be a clean 5ft from the south, with a short 7-second period. The energy is only moderate at 381, but on a reef like Xa, that short period might actually help it stand up a bit. It's not going to be a world-class day, but with the wind flat, the ocean will be like a mirror. This is the standout of the outlook, purely because the conditions will be clean. The swell direction is from the south, which is east of the optimum, so expect it to be a bit wonky, but it's the best we've got.

After that, the morning of Friday the 25th of July has a lighter 5ft south-east swell with a light cross-off breeze, so it'll be clean again. The energy is still low at 317, but it's a surfable option. Then on Sunday the 26th of July, the swell drops to 3ft but with a very long 12-second period from the south-southeast. The energy is moderate at 439. That long period means it'll be walled up and fast on this reef, so it might be a bit tricky but could offer some nice lines.

The final window is on Monday the 27th of July, with a tiny 2ft south-southeast swell and a 13-second period – very long groundswell. The energy is still moderate at 346. Again, a long period on a reef, so expect some longer waits between sets, but the waves that come through will have some push.

So, to be blunt: don't hold your breath for the next week and a half. The best shot is the glassy morning of Thursday the 24th. It's a gamble, but that's the only one that looks worth the paddle. The rest of the time, it's either onshore slop or too small and wally.

Rusty.

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