Xa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a real mixed bag coming up for Xa, and honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn. The next week or so is mostly a write-off, but there are exactly two sessions that stand out from the pack, and they’re worth marking on the calendar.

First up, the overall pattern. The swell is coming from the SSE, which is a decent direction for this reef break, but the wind is all over the shop for most of the period. The first few days are a struggle. Wednesday the 12th through Friday the 14th, we’re looking at small, weak swell with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 717 on Wednesday morning, but the wind is ruining the shape. It’s just not worth paddling out for that.

Saturday the 15th morning is our first real highlight. The wind swings around to a light cross-offshore from the SSW, and the sea goes clean. Swell jumps to 5ft from the SSE with a 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell, meaning long, lined-up waves. The combined energy is strong at 866. This is the best session on offer. The sets will have some punch, and the reef will be working. Keep in mind, this is an advanced spot and it’s *very consistent*, so there will be plenty of waves. Crowds are only *sometimes* an issue, so you might get a bit of company, but it’s worth it for the clean conditions.

Sunday the 16th drops off again. Wind goes back onshore, and the swell period drops to 8 seconds on the afternoon – that’s weak, short-period junk. Monday and Tuesday the 17th and 18th see the swell direction shift to the east and then northeast, with even shorter periods (7 seconds). The wind is howling onshore, and the combined energy is weak to moderate. Honestly, it’s a kite surfer’s setup more than a paddle surfer’s dream.

Then there’s a real gap. From Tuesday the 18th afternoon through Friday the 21st, it’s just poor surf conditions with chop and lumpy seas. The energy drops into the low 100s or below, and the swell is tiny. You’re looking at a solid three to four days of nothing.

But hold on, because the second standout is Saturday the 22nd morning. Déjà vu. Light cross-offshore wind from the SSW again, 4ft of SSE swell, but this time with a 15-second period – even longer, more energy. The combined energy is 775, strong. The description says “expect very good surf conditions,” and I’m telling you, this is the one. It’s a week and a half out, so it’s a bit of a long-range promise, but the signs are there. For a reef break, that long-period groundswell is going to produce some beautiful, deep-water lines. It’s *very consistent*, so you won’t be waiting around.

After that, Sunday the 23rd through the rest of the outlook is a mess. Onshore winds, short periods, and weak energy. The final few days see a spike in SSE energy again on the 26th, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph onshore, making it lumpy and unrideable. The 27th has a marginal chance with a light breeze, but the swell is short-period and weak.

So, to wrap it up: Saturday morning August 15th and Saturday morning August 22nd are your two windows. The 15th is the safer bet, the 22nd has the potential for the best waves if the forecast holds. The rest of the time, leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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