Xa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Xa is a real mixed bag, and it’s gonna take a bit of patience to find the good stuff. The first week is mostly a write-off, but there’s a couple of windows that could be worth a paddle. Let’s break it down.

The whole period kicks off with a real frustrating run. From Friday the 7th of August right through to Sunday the 9th, we’ve got a solid 5ft to 6ft of NE windswell pouring in, but it’s arriving with a raw, short period of just 6 to 7 seconds, and the wind is all cross or cross-onshore, blowing 15 to 22 mph. It’s just lumpy, choppy, and messy. Not a single surfable wave in that first three-day block. You’d be better off staying home.

But then, Monday morning the 10th of August. Finally, a little relief. The wind drops right out – glassy conditions with a slight SSE breeze at just 3 mph. The swell drops to 4ft from the ENE, period still short at 7 seconds, but the combined energy is moderate (205). It’s not gonna be pumping, but it’ll be clean. This is the first real chance for a surf. The water temp is sitting at 74°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no wetsuit needed.

The following days slip back into a grumpy mood. From Monday afternoon through to the end of the week, we’ve got a new, longer-period SSE swell trying to fill in, with periods of 12 to 16 seconds, and we see some big combined energy numbers – 734 on Tuesday, 1030 on Friday the 14th. That’s serious energy in the water. But the wind is a constant problem – mostly cross or cross-onshore, blowing 6 to 19 mph. The surf quality is poor or marginal at best. The set waves from that long-period groundswell will be powerful, but at a beach break like Xa, that kind of energy can be a handful, and the wind will tear it up. Honestly, for a few days there, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

If you’re looking for the standout, you have to set your sights on Sunday morning the 16th of August. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the WSW. The swell is small, just 2ft from the SSE with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (246). It’s not big, but it will be clean, and those long-period lines will have some shape. For a reef break that’s advanced and very consistent, this is the best we’ve got. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others in the water, but it’s worth it for that glassy, clean surface.

After that, it’s a slow fade. The second week of the forecast is a bit of a dud. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th bring back short-period, wind-affected slop, and from Wednesday the 19th to the end of the outlook on the 22nd, it’s the same story – cross-shores, lumpy conditions, and marginal surf. A few small pulses of SSE energy on the 21st and 22nd aren’t enough to save the run.

So, to wrap it up: the first real surfable moment is Monday morning the 10th. The one true standout that’s worth planning around is Sunday morning the 16th – small, glassy, and clean. Everything else is a struggle. Stay patient.

- Rusty

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