Xa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty.

Honestly, folks, the next 16 days are a real grind. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing but ordinary, poor, or marginal conditions. The swell is small and weak, the wind is all over the shop, and the only real standout is a single morning window that’s worth circling on the calendar. Let’s break it down.

The first sign of any surfable waves is on Thursday morning, July 30th, at Xa. It’s a tiny 1ft swell from the SSE with an 11-second period, so it’s a long-period groundswell. The water temperature is 74°, which is spot on for this time of year. The energy is low at just 81 (weak), and the conditions are glassy. Still, the overall rating is poor, so it’s not a goer.

From there, we’re in a drought. The next solid week is a write-off. Thursday afternoon through to the end of the first week of August brings onshore, cross, and cross-off winds with tiny swell. The wave energy barely gets above 200, and the wind states are all over the place – cross-chop, lumpy, and choppy. The swell picks up a bit on Tuesday, August 4th, with a 4ft to 5ft swell from the E and ENE, but the wind is a mess. The combined energy hits 295 and 423 (moderate to strong), but with cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The beach break is not going to hold up.

The clear standout is in the second week. Monday morning, August 10th, is the only window that gets a score of 2 out of 10, and that’s the best we’re going to see. Xa (reef) is the pick. The swell is 5ft from the ENE with a 7-second period, so it’s a bit short-period, but the wind is a light, cross-off breeze from the north, making it clean. The combined energy is strong at 415 (moderate-dropping-into-strong). The swell direction (ENE) matches the optimum swell direction (E) reasonably well. It’s a reef break, so it’s for advanced surfers only, and it’s very consistent. The crowds are only sometimes an issue, so you might get a few out. This is the one to aim for. But it’s only a morning window – by afternoon, the wind swings ENE and everything goes cross-onshore and choppy.

The rest of the second week, from August 11th to the 14th, is a mix of marginal and poor conditions. The swell builds to 6ft on the 11th and 12th, with energy up to 803 (very strong), but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell. The morning of the 13th and 14th see lighter winds and cross-shore conditions, but the swell is still 5ft to 4ft, and the energy is moderate to strong (513 and 479). But the wind is never truly offshore for long, and the quality is only marginal.

Bottom line: this is a long gap. Nearly two weeks of poor surf with one real chance on the morning of August 10th. If you can get out there, that’s the window. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more