Venice Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, your one and only eyes on the water. Let’s cut through the small talk and get straight to what we’ve got cookin’ in front of us, right here.

Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out period of feeble pulses and poor conditions. For the most part, this ain’t a standout window for the paddle surfer. If you’re a kite surfer with a big quiver, you might get something out of the onshores, but for the rest of us, it’s slim pickings. The main event is all at Venice Breakwater – a beach break with some breakwater structure, exposed to the WNW, so it catches whatever southwest groundswell makes it in.

The water temp is gonna feel oddly warm for the time of year, a solid 3° above normal, which is very unusual. You won’t need a thick suit, that’s for sure.

The first real pulse to even talk about arrives Friday the 3rd. We’ve got a 3 ft groundswell from the SSW at a lengthy 16 seconds. With the combined energy at 298 (moderate), it’s trying, but that SSW wind at 6 mph is cross-on, and the whole setup is just marginal due to tide. The afternoon turns into a full-on onshore mess with 9 mph winds putting the lid on it. Honestly, it’s frustrating – long-period groundswell like that, over 15 seconds, can wrap nicely around the breakwater, but with the wind and tide so wrong, it’s not going to hold shape. This long swell will mean big gaps between sets at the beach break, but the reefs might have an angle.

Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are no better – same story, shin-high waves and onshore winds killing any chance of a rideable face. We hit a bit of a lull until Monday the 6th where combined energy climbs to 500 (moderate) and 540 (moderate) in the arvo, but again, the winds are cross-on to onshore. The period on that Monday afternoon pulse hits 20 seconds – that’s a *very* long groundswell. For a beach break like this, that kind of period makes the waves stand up too straight, jacking up and closing out. It really belongs at a point break or river mouth.

Tuesday the 7th shows the biggest wave height of the window, a 3 ft swell from the SSW. With the morning winds light from the SW at 6 mph, it’s onshore but might just have a clean-ish moment before the arvo kicks up. The energy reading is 737 (moderate) – the highest we see. But the comments say “marginal,” so don’t get hyped. After that, the energy just fades.

From Wednesday the 8th right through to Tuesday the 14th, the story is the same: swell heights stuck between 1 ft and 3 ft, combined energy dropping from 646 (moderate) down to just 112 (weak) by the 15th, and nearly every session ruined by onshore or cross-on wind. There’s a window on Sunday the 12th morning with light onshore and a 3 ft wave, but the period drops to 14 seconds, so it’s losing its push.

The back half of the forecast is a total write-off for decent surf. By Wednesday the 16th, we’re down to 1 ft and 2 ft waves with weak energy (143 and 254). It’s just flat and wind-affected. That last blip on the 18th has a 2 ft SSW groundswell and light onshore wind, but the window has already closed for anything with power.

If you’re really itching, the single best moment is probably the morning of Tuesday the 7th of July. The 3 ft is the biggest we get, the energy is peaking, and the light onshore might just let you find a few clean shoulders before the arvo wind screws it. But honestly, this is a stretch where patience is the name of the game. The setup is better for a kite session than trying to fight these onshores for a waist-high closeout.

It’s a rough run for consistency, and that’s not unusual for an exposed breakwater in a marginal swell window. Forecasts can flip though, so keep your eyes peeled, but right now, your best bet is to wait for the next real storm track.

Rusty.

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