The Point (Gonubie Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right you there, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for The Point (Gonubie Bay) – a lovely point break that needs a proper SW swell and a bit of luck. The next 16 days are a mixed bag, with a couple of promising windows but plenty of flat spells and wind to work through.

Let’s start with the first proper chance. Friday, the 24th of July – the swell arrives at 8 ft from the SSW, with a period of 12 seconds, and it’s packing a solid 3380 units of combined swell energy. That’s strong, powerful water. The wind is WSW at 20 km/h, coming cross-off, which should keep it clean. This is not a day for beginners though – 8 ft is steep and pushy, only for experienced surfers. The Point can handle this size, but it’ll be a handful.

The real standout, the one to circle, is Saturday morning on the 25th of July. The swell drops to 4 ft from the SSW, but the period stretches to 14 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, with long lines of energy. The wind is dead calm, glassy. Zero, I tell you. That’s a rare treat. The water temp is 64°F, which is 5°F colder than usual for this time of year – that’s a notable chill, so grab a thicker wetsuit. The combined energy is 951, which is moderate, but the quality of the wave will be much better than the number suggests. This is the best slot in the whole run: clean, groomed, and the Point will be reeling off those long, walling rights. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” – you’ll have company, but with that glass, it’s worth it.

After that, things go downhill. Saturday afternoon gets a light cross-on, and then from Sunday the 26th of July through to the end of the month, it’s a write-off. Strong winds, onshore slop, or just tiny junk. There’s a brief spike on the 28th and 29th of July with 8 ft to 8 ft of short-period SE windswell, but the wind is onshore and strong – 25 to 30 km/h, with heavy rain. That’s messy, choppy, and more suited to a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. I’d skip it.

There’s a long gap of poor-to-no surf from the 26th of July right through to the start of August. The first week of August brings a tease: Tuesday the 4th of August has a tiny 2 ft to 3 ft SSW swell, but the period jumps to 17-18 seconds – very long lines. The wind is variable, and on Tuesday afternoon it goes glassy again. The combined energy is only 828, so it’s weak, but those long-period waves will be slow and fat, peeling nicely down the point. Best for a longboard or a funboard. Then Wednesday the 5th of August sees a pulse of 5 ft to 5 ft SSW swell with a 21-second period – that’s a very long, deep groundswell. The combined energy hits 2645, which is strong. But the wind is cross-shore at 20-25 km/h, so it’ll be lumpy. Still, for a point break, that long period means the waves will be walled up and hold their shape better than at a beach. Not a standout, but worth a look if you’re desperate.

Beyond that, the 6th and 7th of August are small and windy. Nothing to write home about.

So, here’s the honest truth: Saturday morning, the 25th of July, is the one. Glassy, 4 ft, 14-second SSW groundswell at The Point. That’s the morning you set the alarm. Friday the 24th is the bigger, raw option for experienced surfers. The rest of the run is mostly flat, windy, or just average. It’s a tough stretch, but that one morning will be worth it.

Stay keen, and check the tide.

Rusty.

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