The Point (Gonubie Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next few weeks here at The Point (Gonubie Bay). It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and I’ll be straight with you – we’ve got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions ahead, with one or two glimpses of something better.

Right now, it’s Monday morning the 31st of August, and the water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about 1.4° cooler than usual for this time of year. Nothing wild, just a slight chill.

We kick off with a weak, short period SSW swell at 2.6 ft, but the wind is cross-on from the SSE at 6 mph, and the wave energy is low at 101, so honestly, it’s poor out there. The surf is small and messy. That carries on through Monday afternoon and into Tuesday morning with a similar story. Tuesday afternoon sees a slight bump with a 3 ft SSW swell and a 13-second period, which gives a bit more shape, but the cross-on wind keeps it marginal. The combined energy climbs to 296, which is still weak.

Wednesday the 2nd of September is where things get a little more interesting. Wednesday morning we’ve got a 5.2 ft SSW swell with a 14-second period – that’s proper groundswell with good energy (961). But the wind is a cross-shore from the SW at 9 mph, so it’s a bit lumpy. Not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind goes onshore from the ESE, and the swell drops a touch to 4.9 ft, but the energy is still moderate at 804. Still, it’s a marginal call.

Thursday the 3rd morning drops back to 3.3 ft, and then Thursday afternoon the wind cranks up from the S at 19 mph with a risk of thunderstorms. That’s a write-off.

Now, Friday the 4th of September… big swell incoming. Friday morning we’re looking at a massive 14.8 ft SSE swell with a moderate 11-second period, and the combined energy is a whopping 4312 – that’s strong. But the wind is onshore from the SE at 16 mph. This is absolute chaos. This is not for paddling – this is for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. The wind is just too strong. Friday afternoon the swell drops to 13.1 ft, energy is still very strong at 3010, but the wind is cross-on and choppy. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The Point is a point break, so it can handle a bit of size, but not with that wind.

Saturday the 5th morning, the swell is down to 7.9 ft from the SE at a short 9-second period, with moderate energy (1022) and a cross-shore wind from the ENE at 12 mph. The waves will be choppy and a bit lumpy. It’s marginal, but if you’re a solid intermediate, you might find something. Saturday afternoon it drops right off.

Sunday the 6th of September – another big one. Sunday morning sees a 3.9 ft S swell with a very long 21-second period, and energy is strong at 2109. That’s a classic groundswell. But the wind is cross-on from the SSW at 12 mph with light rain. The quality is poor. Sunday afternoon, the swell jumps to 9.8 ft from the S, 18-second period, with energy at 7499 – that’s very strong. Again, onshore wind from the S at 19 mph. This is another expert-only situation, and the wind is going to ruin it.

Monday the 7th of September stays big and messy, with 11.5 ft SSE swell, strong energy, and cross-on winds. Tuesday the 8th morning we see a drop to 4.3 ft from the SSE with an 11-second period, and the wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 12 mph. The energy is moderate at 541. It’s marginal, but it could be the closest thing to a clean wave we get in that whole week. Surfable, but not a standout.

From Wednesday the 9th onward, it’s a long, slow grind. The swell drops to tiny, 1.6 ft and below, and the winds are light but cross. The energy is weak – under 100. There’s basically nothing on offer. We’re looking at a gap of several days with no real surf from Wednesday the 9th through to at least Tuesday the 15th of September. There’s a brief flicker on Saturday the 12th with 2 ft to 2.3 ft SSW swell, but with gentle cross-shore winds, the energy is still weak (200), and it’s just not enough.

So, the only real standout here is Wednesday the 2nd of September. That 5.2 ft SSW groundswell with a 14-second period, combined with moderate energy, is the best we’re going to get. The wind is a cross-shore, so it’s not perfect,

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