The Box Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me get this straight. Looking at the whole 16-day picture for The Box, I gotta be honest with ya – it's a tough stretch. This is a spot that's *inconsistent* to begin with, so a long blank run like this ain't totally out of the ordinary for the area. The setup is a beach and reef, and it needs an ENE swell direction to really work, but we just aren't seeing it.

Right from the start, on Saturday the 22nd of August, there's barely a ripple. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year – that's over five degrees warmer than average, pretty unusual stuff.

The first morning is dead flat with 0.3ft swell out of the NE, period a weak 7 seconds, and combined energy is next to nothing at 2. It's glassy, but there's nothing to surf. That sets the tone for the entire run. The morning of Sunday the 23rd sees a bump to 2ft from the NE, but that's a tiny fetch with just 21 for energy and the wind is onshore – no good.

The whole first week is just one poor surf condition after another. The swell barely tickles 2ft, the period is short (4 to 7 seconds), and the wind is a mess. Monday the 24th morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but on 2ft of short-period ESE swell? You'd be fighting for a knee-high slop. It's the same story all week – a few clean windows, like Tuesday the 25th morning and Thursday the 27th, but the swell is gone (0.3ft to 1ft). The energy is in the single digits, literally the lowest possible – a 1 or a 2.

We roll into the weekend of August 30th and there's a tiny pulse. Sunday the 30th morning sees the swell push to 3ft from the NE with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy finally hits a moderate 67, which is the best we get. But the wind is a light cross-onshore from the ESE, so it's not glassy. It's surfable, but not the kind of session you'd set your alarm for. The afternoon is smaller and choppier.

After that, the second week really fades. We get glassy or clean mornings on Monday the 31st of August, Tuesday the 1st of September, and Wednesday the 2nd, but the swell is gone again – 1ft at best, with energy dropping back to 5 or 6. The period is a pathetic 4 to 6 seconds. There's nothing there.

A couple of pulses show up right at the end. On Sunday the 6th of September, we finally see 3ft in the morning from the NE with 46 energy, and then 3ft in the afternoon from the ENE with 56 energy. But the wind is onshore from the NE and ENE, so it's going to be a bumpy, blown-out mess. At 3ft it won't be big, but the onshore wind will make it lumpy and unappealing for a paddle. With this beach-and-reef setup and the wind onshore, it honestly looks like it'd be more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddler.

So, the truth of it? There are no standouts here. No best day. The entire 16-day forecast is a write-off for any decent surf. The only slight increase in energy comes on the 30th of August and the 6th of September, but both are let down by poor wind or tiny size. If you're itching for a paddle, the cleanest little wave of the whole run is probably the Monday 24th morning or the 25th morning, but you'll be disappointed by how small it is. Sometimes it's just like this – forecasts can change, but right now, this is a flat spell.

Rusty.

Read more