The Box Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be straight with you. I’ve had a good look at the charts for The Box, and I gotta be honest, it’s looking pretty bleak for a long stretch here. The Box is an advanced spot, a beach and reef setup that’s inconsistent, and when it’s good, it needs a solid ENE swell to get going. But for the next 16 days? There’s just nothing on the cards that’s worth paddling out for. The first hint of anything is over a week away, and even that’s a toss-up.

For the first week and a half, from now through pretty much all of next week, it’s a flat spell. The swell energy is minimal, with values barely hitting double digits, and most days are showing zero energy. There’s a lot of glassy mornings, which is nice to look at, but with no waves, it’s just a day for the sunbathers. We’ve got a couple of days with a light cross-onshore breeze and tiny little 0.3 ft to 2 ft wind slop, but that’s just messy and not worth the rubber. The water temp is sitting about 81°, which feels much warmer than what we’d normally expect around here – a good 5° above average for this time of year. Makes for a nice swim, but it’s not helping the surf.

We finally see a pulse around Monday the 21st of September into Tuesday the 22nd. On Monday afternoon, a small NNE swell pushes through at about 4 ft with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 118. The wind is a light cross-onshore from the east, which won’t do it any favours but it’s not a total blowout. It’s still deemed poor surf; it’s likely a weak, short-period wave. By Tuesday morning the 22nd, the swell shifts a bit, still around 4 ft from the NE, with a clean look from a light cross-offshore WNW wind. Energy drops to 51. This might be the best of a bad bunch – small, clean, but super weak.

Tuesday afternoon sees the biggest numbers of the whole run: a 6 ft wave from the NNE, with a period of 6 seconds and a combined energy of 234. That’s the biggest swell of the outlook, but it’s a really short period and the wind is a light cross-onshore. At 6 ft, it’s getting a bit much for beginners, but for experts? The short period means it’ll be dumpy and crumbly, not the kind of clean power you want. Plus, being a beach and reef, the short period won’t let it line up properly. It’s still rated as poor conditions.

Then on Thursday the 24th of September, the guidance shows one last blip. It’s a morning session with a 6 ft swell from the NE, 7-second period, and a combined energy of 787. That’s a strong pulse of energy. But the wind is onshore from the NE at a gentle breeze, and the sky is cloudy. The rating only gets a 1/10, which is “marginal.” At 6 ft, it’s pushing into advanced-only territory anyway, and with onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine.

Honestly, the only time it might even be worth a look is the early morning of the 22nd with the small, clean 4 ft NE swell, or the Thursday morning 24th, but only if you’re a glutton for punishment and don’t mind a messy, onshore gut-churner. For everyone else, save the wax and wait for a better run. Forecasts can change, but this one’s a long dry spell.

Rusty.

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