The Box Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a bleak stretch for The Box. Looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, the energy is pathetic, and the forecast keeps slapping us with "poor surf conditions" every single day. You’ll be staring at flat, weak dribble for the entire run.

Monday the 24th kicks off with a measly 0.3 ft of swell from the NE, period a sad 4 seconds, and combined energy a paltry 1. It’s cloudy, with a light offshore breeze, but there’s simply nothing to ride. That sets the tone. The next few days don’t get any better—Tuesday the 25th has zero recorded swell, Wednesday the 26th brings a 1 ft SSE swell but with a 3-second period that’s pure wind chop, energy only 9. Not surfable.

We drift through the rest of the week with nothing but 0.3 ft to 1 ft slop. Friday the 28th afternoon goes glassy, but the swell is 0.7 ft from the east with a 6-second period—energy 3. You could stand on your board and not get wet. Saturday the 29th, Sunday the 30th, Monday the 31st—all the same story. Glassy mornings, tiny swell, no power. The water temperature on Monday the 24th morning was 83°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s the only interesting thing happening.

Come September 1st, Tuesday afternoon sees a tiny bump: 3 ft from the ENE, period 4 seconds, energy 22. Still poor surf. Wednesday the 2nd morning has 2 ft from the NE, period 7 seconds, energy 56—still weak, still cross-shore wind. Not a single day cracks a decent score.

Then September 5th, Saturday, we get a spike: 6 ft from the NNE in the morning, building to 7 ft in the afternoon, period 8 seconds, energy jumping to 330 then 487. That’s moderate wave energy, but look at the wind—moderate cross-onshore and choppy. The Box is a beach and reef setup, and with that much swell and poor wind, it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s not beginner-friendly either—over 5 ft is too big for learners, and the chop will punish anyone.

Sunday the 6th afternoon has a 5 ft NNE swell with a 10-second period, energy 546 (strong wave energy), but it’s onshore wind and the conditions are unknown. Even then, the swell direction is NNE, while The Box’s optimum is ENE—so it’s not lining up right. After that, it drops back to nothing.

There’s a gap of about 10 days from the start where there’s zero surf on offer, and the only pulse around the 5th–6th is ruined by wind and direction mismatch. This is a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board in the shed.

Rusty.

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