The Box Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's look at what's on the menu for The Box over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, the outlook is grim. We're looking at a long, dry spell with nothing but poor surf conditions pretty much across the board. You're going to be waiting a while for anything that even resembles a wave.

First, the water temp is sitting at 79°F with a 4°F anomaly, so a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not that it matters much when there’s nothing to surf.

The first few days are a complete write-off. From Friday the 10th right through to the morning of Sunday the 19th, it's virtually flat or tiny, weak, and mostly choppy. We’re talking combined swell energy barely breaking into double digits, often at zero (0). The odd pulse appears on Sunday the 18th with a 3ft swell from the NNW, but it’s a short-period windswell of just 4 seconds, with a moderate cross-shore chop making it a messy, low-energy affair (20). Not worth paddling out for.

The first glimmer of anything interesting happens on Monday morning, July 20th. We get a glassy, clean window with a tiny 1.0ft swell from the NE. Still, it’s weak (combined energy of only 5). Then Tuesday morning, July 21st, offers another glassy session with a slightly better 1ft NE swell (13 energy). The period is 7 seconds, so it’s still on the short side. For a spot like The Box, which is inconsistent and only suited for advanced surfers, these are barely a ripple. The optimum swell direction here is ENE, and the small bumps we get are from the NE, which is close-ish, but the size is just pitiful.

If there is a standout, and I use the term loosely, it would be the early morning glass-off on Tuesday, July 21st. The wind will be glassy from the WSW, and there will be a tiny, clean 1ft wave (13). That’s your best shot for a few knee-high, groomed waves, but you’ll have to work for it on a longboard. Just don’t expect much.

The rest of the run through to the end of the month on the 25th is more of the same: tiny waves, cross-shore or light onshore wind, and low energy. Nothing for the quiver.

Honestly, for the whole 16-day window, this is a blank run. The swell energy never gets past that weak, two-digit range (at most 87 on July 19th, but with poor cross-onshore wind). The consistency isn't there, and the size isn't there. For a spot like The Box that's already inconsistent, this kind of dead period is just the norm. We’ll have to wait for the next forecast change to see if things pick up.

Rusty.

Read more