Tajiguas Ranch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Looking at the charts for Tajiguas Ranch, it’s a classic case of a whole lot of waiting for not a whole lot of payoff. We’ve got a 16-day window, and honestly, there’s no day that jumps out as a proper score. It’s a real “check your email from the car park” kind of fortnight.

The first worthwhile surf we see is on Thursday, the 30th of July. It’s still a pretty marginal call, but it’s the first chance to get wet. We’re looking at a small 2ft swell coming from the SSE with a 15-second period. That long-period, south-southeast groundswell will push some lines in, but the water’s going to be cross-on from the WSW. The energy is moderate (473), which is okay, but that wind is going to mess with the surface. The water temp is 67°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s pretty unusual and will feel nice in a wetsuit.

The rest of the weekend is more of the same narrative. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August stay small and a bit lumpy. Swell hovers around 2ft to 3ft, but the periods drop a bit, and we’ve got those light cross-onshore breezes keeping things from being truly glassy. It’s surfable for a log on a good tide, but it’s nothing to set the alarm for. The energy drops into the low 300s then down to the 190s and 230s, so it’s getting weaker.

Sunday the 2nd pushes up a touch with a 4ft WNW swell, but the period is a short, crumbly 9 seconds. That’s just a windswell bump, not a proper groundswell, and with the onshore wind, it’s going to be a bit of a mess.

Looking further out, there’s just a slow bleed of energy. We see the swell drop to about 1ft to 2ft for almost the entire first full week of August. The periods do get long again at times—we see a 19-second swell on Friday the 7th, and a 20-second on Monday the 10th—but the actual height is so small it’s barely going to break. The energy values are in the weak to moderate range, mostly between 100 and 250. It’s just not enough push.

The saving grace through all of this is that the winds are consistently light, 6 mph. When it’s not onshore, it’s cross-onshore, so the surface won't be blown out completely, but it’s not going to be clean, glassy perfection either.

So, the long and short of it is this: there’s no standout day in this forecast. It’s a relatively blank run for Tajiguas Ranch, which can happen. This is a reef that needs a decent push of SW or W swell, and we’re just not seeing it. The swell direction is mostly from the SSE or S, which is not the optimum SW this spot likes to see. While a 1ft to 2ft swell with a 19-second period will send some lines down the point, it’s likely to be straight and gutless, especially for a beach break. On a reef like this, a long-period swell is your friend for shape, but you still need the size to make it work.

If not for the warm water, you'd be forgiven for thinking it was winter. Keep the board in the car, but maybe bring a book. Until the next swell window opens up, this is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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