Tajiguas Ranch Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Tajiguas Ranch.

The next 16 days are looking like a long, drawn-out run of mediocre to small waves. We’re waiting a while for anything worth getting wet for, and honestly, the first real window of decent surf holds off until the second week. The real standout is going to be Thursday afternoon, July 16th, and maybe a couple of sessions around the 22nd and 23rd, but nothing is firing on all cylinders.

The water temp is sitting at 62°F, which is about normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.

We start with a gap. The first few days, from Sunday July 12th through to Tuesday July 14th, are a write-off. Tiny swell of 1.0ft to 2ft, mostly onshore or cross-on winds, and the wave energy is weak. The ‘combined energy’ reading is only 215 on Sunday morning, dropping to 56 by Tuesday morning. It’s just not breaking properly.

Wednesday July 15th sees a bit of a pulse, with a 4ft windswell from the WNW, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s going to be weak and choppy. The energy picks up to 264, but it’s still not worth the paddle out with cross-on wind.

Thursday July 16th is the pick of the first week. The morning is a bit average with a 5ft swell and cross-on wind, but by Thursday afternoon, we get clean conditions. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW, the swell holds at 5ft with a 9-second period, and the wave energy climbs to 466 (moderate). The swell direction is also from the WNW, which matches the optimum SW direction... well, close enough for this reef. It’s a solid intermediate option, and the afternoon window looks clean.

Friday July 17th falls apart again with onshore wind and a dropping swell, so that’s a no-go.

The second week is a bit more promising, but still mostly marginal. From Saturday July 18th through to Monday July 21st, we’re looking at small, inconsistent surf with energy values ranging from 298 to 512. The swell direction swings around from SW to SSE, but the wind is often cross-on, so it’s messy.

The next real nod goes to Wednesday July 22nd and Thursday July 23rd. The swell picks up to 3ft to 4ft, mostly from the SSE and S, with a 14-15 second period - that’s proper groundswell, which is good for a reef setup like this. The energy kicks up into the 600s (strong), which is a solid sign. The wind is light cross-on or onshore, but the light breeze means it won’t be too chopped up. It’s still not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got in that second week. By Thursday afternoon, the energy is at 697, and the swell is 4ft from the SSE with a 15-second period. That’s the kind of wave that will have some push and shape, even if the wind isn’t ideal.

After that, Friday July 24th through to Monday July 27th sees the swell drop back to 2ft to 3ft, with periods getting long again (12-19 seconds), but the energy fades. The wind is mixed, with a few offshore windows on Saturday afternoon, but the swell is just too small to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Thursday July 16th afternoon for the cleanest conditions and a decent 5ft groundswell, followed by Wednesday July 22nd and Thursday July 23rd for a run of moderate energy, longer-period swells that’ll work on this reef. The rest of the 16 days is mostly a waiting game.

Rusty out.

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