Swanage Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, it’s Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you. If you’re looking for waves in the Swanage zone over the next couple of weeks, you’re gonna be looking at a whole lot of flat, mushy nothing. The forecast is a grim one, with next to no rideable surf on the horizon. We’ve got a long stretch of not much happening for the first week or so, and even when the swell tries to show up, it’s just not got the power or the direction to make anything of itself.

Right out of the gate, Monday the 3rd is a write-off. We're talking a tiny 1ft of southwest swell, but with a light cross breeze chopping it up, it’s just a mess. There's no energy to it either, only 18 on the combined scale. Moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, the wind swings offshore, which is nice, and the water is clean, but the swell just isn't there. Wednesday morning shows 4ft of short-period, 6-second windswell, but it’s all mush and no push. The energy ticks up to 122, which sounds better than it is, but with that period, it’s just not going to break with any sort of power. The rest of that first week is a dead loss, with swells under 1ft and light, messy winds.

We’ve got a completely flat run from Thursday the 6th through to Monday the 10th. Unless you want to practice your paddling, it’s not worth getting wet. The water temperature on Monday the 3rd is sitting at 69°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s odd and worth a mention, but it won't help you catch a wave.

The middle of the month brings a bit of a pulse, but it’s a cruel tease. On Wednesday the 12th, we finally see some energy, with a combined reading of 64, but the swell is a weak 3ft from the ESE, and it’s still not enough to get the bank at Swanage breaking properly. Friday the 14th sees a bit of a bump with a 2ft west swell and fresh offshore winds, but it’s still not doing anything for me. All of this is showing up as "poor surf conditions" and that’s exactly what it is.

Then there’s Saturday the 15th. This is the one day that might have some life. The morning shows 4ft of WSW swell, an 8-second period, and a combined energy of 238 – that’s the strongest signal in the whole two weeks. We’ve got fresh offshore winds (30 km/h) and clean conditions, so it might be worth a look for the more experienced crew. But this is Swanage, and it’s a sheltered, inconsistent spot that rarely breaks. Even with a bit of size, it’s going to be a fat, crumbly close-out, and that 4ft is right at the top of what it can handle before it gets messy. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s not a proper groundswell. After that, it’s back to the flatness. The rest of the window is nothing but tiny swell and onshore winds, right through to Tuesday the 18th.

So, here’s the deal. There’s no standout day here, unless you’re desperate and want to scratch around on Saturday the 15th. Even then, keep your expectations at the bottom of the ocean. The setup looks a whole lot more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for most of this period, especially with those stronger onshore winds. We’ve got a long blank run, which is more normal for this area when the swell direction is all wrong. It’s a frustrating outlook, but that’s the game. We wait, we watch, and we hope the forecasts change.

Rusty.

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