Spanish Bay-South Moss Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a lean stretch for Spanish Bay-South Moss. The numbers just aren’t stacking up for a proper session, but we’ll get into the nitty-gritty.

The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The outlook kicks off on Tuesday, the 14th of July, with a tiny 3ft swell from the NW at a short 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 226, and it’s already flagged as marginal. The morning has a light WNW breeze on it, but it’s not enough to save the day. That afternoon, the wind goes cross-on, and it’s just not worth paddling out. We slide into Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th with building swell – up to 5ft and 7ft – but the wind is a solid onshore breeze (15-25 km/h), and the period is still short. The energy jumps up to a moderate 924, but the conditions are called “poor.” This is the kind of chop that’ll have you fighting the wind more than riding the wave. For a beach-and-reef setup with that much wind, you’d be better off rigging a kite than paddling a surfboard.

Then, from Friday the 17th through to the end of the first week, we get a weird shift. The swell drops right back to 3ft, but the period jumps to 17 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means good shape, but the energy is still moderate (812) and the wind is on it. The 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th are all plagued by onshore or cross-on winds, with the surf quality stuck on “poor” or “marginal.” That long-period SW groundswell wants a clean point or reef to break properly, but with the wind messing it up, it’s a write-off.

The second week doesn’t get much better. From the 21st to the 23rd, it’s a rinse and repeat of small 3ft to 3ft SSW swells with moderate energy and onshore or cross-on winds. Nothing to get excited about. The 24th of July morning shows a slight glimmer – a 3ft S swell at 14 seconds with a whisper-light 5 km/h wind. The energy is moderate (546), and it’s flagged as “marginal.” That’s about as close to a clean session as we get, but it’s still tiny.

The 25th and 26th see a jump in energy – 971 and then a strong 1325 on the 26th morning. That 4ft S swell at 13 seconds on the 26th morning has a light cross-on breeze, but it’s still only a “marginal” call. The afternoon of the 26th turns into a 5ft NW windswell, but the wind is cross-on and the period drops to 9 seconds – sloppy.

The 27th of July morning has a 3ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period, and crucially, a light cross-shore wind. Combined energy is strong at 1070. This is the only real standout of the whole outlook. It’s still “marginal” due to tide or conditions, but if you’re an advanced surfer who knows this break, that long-period SW groundswell with light cross-shore wind could produce some clean, lined-up waves. The afternoon fades out, and the rest of the 28th and 29th are back to small, weak, and choppy.

So, the honest truth? The week of the 27th of July morning is your best bet – that SW groundswell with the light wind is the only window that looks promising. Everything else is a grind. We’ve got a big gap of poor surf from the 15th through the 24th, so don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d keep the board in the car and wait for that 27th morning.

Rusty.

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