Shelly Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on the next 16 days for Shelly Beach. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but we’ve got some real juice coming if you know when to paddle out.

The water’s sitting at about 68° – pretty much dead average for this time of year, so no need to worry about a weird temperature shift.

Alright, let’s start with the action. Tuesday morning, July 21, we’ve got clean surf with a light offshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate at 660, with a 6 ft swell from the east at 10 seconds. It’s a fairly consistent spot, so you’ll find waves. The wind is light and offshore, so conditions are clean. The break is exposed, so it’s catching everything. Keep in mind, crowds are possible here.

Wednesday morning, July 22, drops a bit to 4 ft from the east, but it’s glassy – dead calm wind. That’s a major positive. Energy is down to 285, but for a beginner-friendly spot, it’s a fun, small morning. Not a standout, but a nice session.

Thursday morning, July 23, is clean again with a 3 ft east swell and offshore wind. Energy is low at 181. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Friday morning, July 24, picks up to 6 ft from the south, but with a short period of 8 seconds. Energy hits 444. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the short period means the waves might be a bit weak and crumbly. Afternoon is better at 5 ft with the same wind.

Now, the standout. Saturday morning, July 25, is the one to circle. We’ve got a 6 ft south swell, but the period is a very long 13 seconds – that’s groundswell energy. The combined energy is a massive 1012 (strong). The wind is glassy, dead calm. For Shelly Beach, a long period south swell like this can be a bit straight at a beach break, but with glassy conditions, it’ll be incredible if it lines up. The forecast says excellent surf for experienced surfers – and that’s the truth. If you’re intermediate or better, be there early. This is the best on offer in the whole window.

Sunday morning, July 26, settles to 4 ft south at 12 seconds, with a light offshore. Energy is 476. Still good, but not as powerful as Saturday.

We then have a few days of smaller, less inspiring surf. Monday, July 27, is 4 ft south at 9 seconds, clean but ordinary. Tuesday, July 28, is tiny – 3 ft – and Wednesday, July 29, barely registers at 1 ft. There’s a real gap from late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Then comes a warning. Thursday morning, July 30, the swell jumps to 10 ft from the SSE at 12 seconds, with energy of 2442 – that’s very strong. The wind is offshore, but the swell is too big for this break. It’s only for experts. Same thing Friday morning, July 31, with 10 ft and a 13-second period, energy at 2623. Glassy, but again, it’s too big for a beginner spot. Stay out of the water unless you’re a pro.

Saturday morning, August 1, is still big at 8 ft from the south at 11 seconds, energy 2720, with cross-off wind. Excellent for experienced surfers only. Not a beginner’s day.

Sunday morning, August 2, is back to 10 ft from the south, energy 3134 – too big again. Monday morning, August 3, is 10 ft with a strong 16 mph offshore wind, energy 4286 – that’s extreme. The wind is favorable, but the size is genuinely dangerous for most.

Tuesday morning, August 4, drops to 7 ft from the SSE at 12 seconds, energy 1380, with a moderate offshore. Excellent for experts, but still big. Wednesday, August 5, is 5 ft at 10 seconds, energy 553, with clean conditions. A more manageable end to the run.

So, the real standout is Saturday morning, July 25 – glassy, long period south swell, strong energy. If you miss that, the following week is for big-wave hunters only. The rest is small or ordinary.

Rusty.

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