Sawtell Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Sawtell is a tough one to write. There’s a big dry spell ahead, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel if you’re patient.

We start with Sunday the 2nd and the water’s sitting at 67°, about average for this time of year, no major temperature surprises. The swell energy is hanging in there at a moderate 678 and we’ve got a 5ft SE swell rolling in with a 10-second period. The problem is the onshore easterly breeze at 6 mph. It’s not screaming, but it’s enough to mess with the quality. The call is marginal at best, so I’d sit this one out.

Monday the 3rd is where you want to be awake early. Monday morning is the standout of the whole early forecast. We get a glassy, light NNE breeze at 3 mph – basically flat calm – with a clean 4ft SE swell (10-second period) and a combined energy of 397. That’s good energy and clean conditions. This is the best you’re going to see for the first week. The waves will be punchy and lined up on the point. After lunch the breeze swings and picks up, ruining the session, so get in there early.

Then the grim stuff sets in. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Sunday the 9th, it’s a long stretch of tiny surf. Most mornings offer glassy conditions but with swell heights barely scraping 2ft to 3ft and energy dropping below 200 – just limp, weak waves. The afternoons are all onshore and choppy. Not worth paddling out unless you want to practise your pop-up on a 2ft ripple.

Monday the 10th has a clean morning with a light offshore from the WSW at 3 mph, but the swell is still weak at 3ft and the energy is only 139. It’s surfable but very ordinary. The next few days stay small and messy until the 13th and 14th when the wind picks up to 16-19 mph – that’s kite-surfing conditions, not paddle surfing. The swell bumps up to 3-4ft but with a short period around 7-8 seconds, it’s all chop and bounce.

Now, here’s the real story. The whole second week is building to something. Saturday the 16th shows a pulse of S swell in the afternoon: 4ft from the SSE with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 567 – that’s proper groundswell. It’s a bit raw with the cross-off breeze, so it’s marginal but getting interesting.

Then Monday the 17th (that’s a week and a half away) is the one you circle on the calendar. Monday morning we’ve got 4ft of SSE groundswell with a very long 17-second period and a massive combined energy reading of 1119 – that’s strong, powerful surf. The wind is a light SSW at 6 mph offering a clean cross-off. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The only catch: that long 17-second period means the waves will really stand up and peel perfectly on the point at Sawtell, but at beach breaks they’d close out. On this point, it’s going to be a dream for the advanced crew. The afternoon gets a bit skunky with an onshore kick, so make it a dawn patrol mission.

So to sum it up: your best bet is Monday morning, 3rd August for clean glassy fun on the SE swell. Then, if you’ve got patience, Monday morning, 17th August is the heavy-hitter – strong, long-period groundswell, clean wind, and proper power. Worth the wait.

– Rusty

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