Treachery Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Treachery Head all morning. Right now, there’s a bit of a lull, but hold onto your board – this forecast has a serious, gut-wrenching pulse coming our way in the second week. We’ve got a major gap of nothing much happening for the first five days, then a few ordinary days, but then, mate, the ocean is going to roar.

The first real sign of life is on Wednesday the 22nd of July. Treachery Head is a point break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell. The water’s sitting at 67°F, which is about average for the time of year. Wednesday morning kicks off with a little 4ft swell from the ENE, period of 10 seconds, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NW. That’s clean, glassy conditions – the kind that makes you pull the wetsuit on without thinking. The combined energy is weak at 270, but it’s a start. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind goes glass at 3 mph from the ESE, with a 3ft swell. It’s a gentle intro, but the standout is further out.

Thursday the 23rd turns sour. The wind swings to a 12 mph cross-shore from the WSW, dropping the swell to 3ft, and conditions get choppy. Friday the 24th is a write-off for paddling. The swell jumps to 6ft but with a 19 mph cross-shore from the WSW and a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (1018), but the wind is howling and it’s lumpy. That setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then, on Saturday the 25th of July, we get our first real standout. The morning is a gem. Treachery Head sees a 6ft swell from the S with a long 12-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong at 1009. The wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore from the WNW, leaving the surface clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The period is long, so expect long gaps between sets, but the waves will have shape and power. It’s a point break, so it should handle the long period well. The afternoon stays fun with a 6ft swell and a light cross-shore, but the morning is the pick.

Sunday the 26th is marginal, with a cross-shore wind messing up the 6ft swell. The next few days are a mix of small, ordinary surf and mostly poor conditions. The combined energy drops to 84 by Tuesday the 28th.

Now, here’s the one that makes your palms sweat. Tuesday the 4th of August. Treachery Head is going to get smashed. The morning brings a 15ft swell from the SSW, period of 12 seconds. The energy is a massive 10187 – that’s extreme. And the wind is a light 6 mph cross-offshore from the NNE. Glassy conditions on a 15ft swell. This is for experts only, mate. It’s too big for beginners, and only the most experienced should go near it. The afternoon is similar, a 15ft swell from the S, 14-second period, and still light cross-offshore wind. This is the absolute peak of the forecast.

Wednesday the 5th of August is even bigger, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. The morning has a 18ft swell from the SSW with a 22 mph cross-shore wind, making it a lumpy mess. The energy is 19367 – it’s just too much. The afternoon is a 21ft swell with a 22 mph cross-offshore, which is clean but massive. You’d have to be a madman to paddle out there. Thursday the 6th is still oversized, with 16ft and 13ft swells and fresh cross-shore winds, still way too big for a comfortable paddle session.

So, the standout of the whole outlook is Saturday the 25th of July morning for a solid, clean groundswell, and the monster session on Tuesday the 4th of August for the experts who want a serious, glassy, life-changing paddle. The rest of the time is either flat, choppy, or too big. Long-range calls like the 4th of August are promising but less certain, so keep an eye on the charts.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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