Sandy Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yeah, look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a lot of wind and lumpy, messy conditions on the menu for the most part, and not a whole lot of quality. But, there is one window, one real standout moment, that’s got me a bit fired up. Let’s break it down.

For the first stretch, from now through the 15th, it’s a write-off. The surf is there, but it’s small and the wind is just killing it. We’re talking cross-shore breezes in the 18 to 22 mph range, which is whipping up a horrible cross-chop. The swell is mostly short-period windswell, around 7 to 8 seconds, and the energy is weak to moderate. The combined energy figures are mostly in the 400 to 900 range, which tells you it’s just not powerful or organized. The water temp is 80°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re getting frustrated.

Then we get to the weekend, and things get interesting. Sunday the 16th is the one to circle. The swell is going to jump up, with a solid 10ft to 12ft on offer, coming from the ENE. The period is a solid 13 seconds, so there’s real push behind it. The winds are due to swing around to a cross-offshore from the N and NNE, which will finally clean things up. The combined energy readings are massive, hitting 3486 and 4836, which is strong to very strong. This is a serious groundswell. Now, here’s the catch, and it’s a big one. This size is way too big for Sandy Beach (Big Island). It’s going to be a heavy, expert-only situation. For most of us, it’s a beach day, not a surf day. It’s a shame, because the conditions look perfect otherwise.

After that pulse, it’s back to the grind. From the 17th through the 24th, we’re back to the same story. The swell drops, the wind comes back onshore or cross-shore, and the quality tanks. The combined energy drops back down to the 200-900 range, and we’re dealing with short-period, weak swell again. There’s a risk of thunderstorms on the 23rd, with lumpy conditions. It’s just a whole lot of nothing, to be honest.

So, the outlook is simple. The first week is a write-off, and the second week is more of the same. If you’re an expert, the 16th might be your chance to get some serious slabs, but it will be big and powerful, and not for the faint-hearted. The setup there looks far more interesting for the kite crew than for the paddle crew until that Sunday comes. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game. The lack of consistent quality is a bummer, but things can change, so keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty

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