Rockpiles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, let’s chat about the next couple of weeks. Honestly, the outlook for the entire 16-day window is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of messy, wind-affected surf, with only a couple of genuine windows that might be worth a look. The first real opportunity doesn’t show up until the 21st of July, so there’s an ugly gap of almost two weeks of marginal to poor conditions before anything interesting happens.

The main issue is a persistent, strong cross-offshore wind from the ENE that’s going to be blowing 24 to 25 mph pretty much every day. That’s going to wreak havoc on the surface of the water. The swell is coming from the ENE too, which is the exact opposite of what this spot prefers. Rockpiles is a reef break that really wants a swell from the SSE to get its best shape, and this is just coming in wrong. On top of that, the swell period is a short, choppy 7 to 8 seconds for most of the period, which means weak, shapeless waves. The wave energy is moderate (636) through the first week, so there’s size, but it’s poor quality.

If you’re a beginner, you’ll want to stay away anyway. The swell is consistently over 5 ft, and by the 18th of July, it’s forecast to be a solid 8 ft to 10 ft, which is expert-only territory. Even then, the wind is still howling and the quality is shot. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the majority of this period.

Now, the only glimmer of hope comes on the 21st and 22nd of July. The wind finally drops to a moderate 15-18 mph cross-off, which is still not ideal but a hell of a lot better. And the swell direction swings around to the east. More importantly, the period jumps to 15-18 seconds. That’s proper long-period groundswell. The energy jumps up to strong (1012-1072) on the 21st and 22nd. The problem is that the swell size is small, only 2 ft to 3 ft on the 21st, and just 4 ft to 4 ft on the 22nd. A long-period swell that small on an exposed reef can be tricky, but this is the best we’ve got. The water temperature is a warm 80°F, about average for this time of year.

The standout window is the 21st of July Tuesday afternoon. The swell is tiny at 3 ft from the east, with a very long 18-second period, and the wind is down to a moderate 15 mph from the NE. It’s the most promising moment in the whole forecast. The second best would be the 22nd of July Wednesday morning, with a 4 ft east swell and a 15-second period, though the wind is a touch stronger at 18 mph. Keep in mind, this is a long-range call, so it’s promising but less certain. For now, the rest of the month is a write-off.

Rusty.

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