Ala Moana Bowls Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up over the next couple weeks. Gotta be honest, it’s one of those outlooks where you need to wait for the good stuff and skip the rest.

From the get-go, starting Saturday the 8th, we’ve got a long stretch of tough conditions. Trade winds are blowing strong out of the ENE at 19 to 31 mph, and they don’t let up for days. The surf at Ala Moana Bowls through this first week is mostly small to medium, with wave heights from 2 ft up to 8 ft, but the periods are short—mostly 6 to 8 seconds. That means weak, lumpy, blown-out surf. The combined swell energy is moderate, ranging from 414 to 586 (moderate), but the wind keeps everything messy. Not worth paddling out.

Then we hit a massive, wild spike on Saturday the 15th. By the afternoon, we’re looking at a 33 ft swell from the east with a 14-second period, and the energy reading is an insane 40341 (very strong). That’s way too big for the break—dangerous, unsurfable. The morning of the 15th has a 20 ft swell from the east, same story. That whole Saturday is a washout for surf. The wind swings cross-shore with a chop, and honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, things calm down. From Sunday the 16th onward, the swell drops. On the 16th morning, you get an 12 ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, which is solid but still short-period. The combined energy is 3572 (strong), and the wind is lighter at 12 mph from the ENE, so it’s cleaner. But the short period means the waves will be fat and sectiony. It’s okay, but not a standout.

The real highlight, the one to circle, is Wednesday the 12th morning. It’s over a week out, so don’t take it to the bank, but the signs are good. We’ve got a 3 ft south swell rolling in with an 18-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, and for a reef break like Ala Moana Bowls, that means real shape and power. The combined swell energy is 939 (moderate). The wind is still ENE at 22 mph (cross-offshore), so the waves will be clean and well-lined-up. It’s not huge, but the quality will be there. If you want clean, rhythmic waves, that Wednesday morning is your best shot.

Thursday the 13th is also worth a look. The south swell sticks around, 4 ft at 15 to 16 seconds, with energy over 1000 (strong). The wind picks up to 25 mph, still cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean but a bit more challenging.

Through the second week, from Monday the 17th onward, the surf fades. Swell drops to 2 ft to 4 ft, periods shorten, and the energy falls below 500 (weak). The wind stays fresh from the ENE, so you’re left with small, weak, wind-affected waves. Nothing to write home about. There’s a tiny bump on the 21st and 23rd with 5 ft to 7 ft ENE windswell, but with periods of 6 to 7 seconds, it’s just bumpy and weak.

So, here’s the take: the first week is mostly a mess. The standout is Wednesday the 12th morning with that long-period south groundswell—get on it if you can. The 16th morning is a solid second option if you want bigger waves, but the quality won’t be as high. After that, it’s a slow fade. You’ve been warned.

– Rusty

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