Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey everyone, it's Rusty here. Let's be straight up: the next couple of weeks at Keaulanas are a real mixed bag that takes a while to get going. For the first few days, don't expect much. There's a long wait for the good stuff, and the real standout doesn't show until the tail end of the forecast.

Right now heading into the weekend, it's pretty weak. The water is sitting at 81°F which is about average for this time of year, but the surf is flat-lining. Through Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, we're looking at tiny 1ft to 2ft swell from the SSW, with energy readings barely cracking the triple digits (155). The wind is mostly cross-off from the ENE, keeping it clean enough, but it's a Fresh breeze at 19 mph. It's just not worth paddling out for.

From Monday the 3rd and into the following week, the swell stays tiny at 1ft to 2ft but things get a bit more interesting. The wind backs off nicely. Tuesday the 4th we see a Slight air and glassy conditions – magic, but the combined energy is only 46 to 52, so you're fighting for any ripple on the surface. Then Wednesday the 5th (afternoon) turns glassy with a 1ft SSW swell but a much longer period of 15-16 seconds, giving an energy reading of 132-134. It's surfable but very ordinary.

The second week is where the energy finally picks up, but it's far from perfect. By Friday the 7th, the swell holds at a tiny 1ft but the period jumps way up to 21 seconds. That's a groundswell, but for a break like Keaulanas, which is a beach and reef setup exposed to the west, that long-period SSW groundswell is likely to break too straight on the beach. The combined energy here is 192, so there's some push, but the cross-off wind is bumpy.

Now, the real standout and the only time I'd genuinely get excited is Sunday the 9th of August. Finally, we get the wind swinging offshore from the ENE at a moderate 12 mph, and the swell bumps up to 2ft from the SSW with a period of 16 seconds. The combined energy sits at a solid 291. By Monday the 10th, we see a 2ft SSW swell with the same offshore breeze and energy readings up near 300. This is the best window – expect good surf conditions. The waves will have some shape, and with only sometimes crowds, you might even find a few fun ones to yourself.

Things get messy again after that. By the 12th and 13th, the swell builds to 3ft - 4ft from the S and SSE, with strong cross-off winds. The combined energy is strong (up to 876 on the 12th afternoon), but the wind and cross-off conditions mean the surf quality is marginal. It’s big enough to get out, but it won't be pretty.

Overall, it’s a slow start. The best bet is definitely those couple of days around the 9th and 10th of August. Keep your expectations low and your eyes on the wind.

Stay stoked.
Rusty

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