Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s take a look at what’s on offer for Keaulanas. First thing you’ll notice is that we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The beginning of the forecast period isn't exactly firing, but don't write it off too early. There’s a slow build through the middle of the month, and the back half of the forecast window actually starts to shape up nicely, especially if you’re willing to wait.

We’ve got an exposed west-facing setup here at Keaulanas; a beach and reef mix that needs a good push of south or southwest swell to really wake up. Water temp sits around 81°F with about a 0.6°F anomaly—so pretty much bang on average for this time of year. Nothing weird going on with the water temp, the ocean is in its normal rhythm.

Alright, let’s talk about the first stretch. From Monday the 10th through to Saturday the 15th, we’re looking at small south-southwest groundswell. The swell hangs around 2.3 ft to 3 ft with periods of 13 to 18 seconds. The energy is moderate, with combined swell energy readings between 262 and 1247. Tuesday morning the 11th has clean waves at 2.3 ft from the SSW, 15-second period, and light east winds—a nice little session for a longboard or a fish, nothing too exciting but pleasant enough. The standout in this early window is actually Wednesday afternoon the 12th. We see a pulse of S swell at 3.6 ft with an 18-second period; combined energy jumps to 1247 (moderate) and the wind is offshore from the ENE at 15.5 mph. It’s going to be clean, lined up, and that long period groundswell will be hitting the reef nicely. That said, with such a long period (18 seconds) at a beach and reef setup, expect the peaks to be a bit fat on the sand, but it’ll lean into the reef for some proper shapes. Keep an eye on the tide, though—the outlook flags possible tide issues.

Thursday morning the 13th is also worth a mention: 4.3 ft from the S, 16-second period, offshore ENE breeze at 15.5 mph, combined energy at 893. That’s clean head-high stuff, and the wind stays off all day. Good wave quality, moderate energy, and the sets will have some push. Thursday afternoon the breeze picks up to 18.6 mph but it’s still offshore, so it stays clean but gets a bit more textured.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are still surfable but dropping: 3.6 ft down to 2.6 ft, period shortening to 13 seconds, and the wind swings a bit more north-east, but still offshore. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about—more of a fun morning session before the wind gets a bit fresh.

Now here’s where things get ugly. Sunday the 16th is a complete write-off. We’ve got a SSE gale blowing 40.4 mph with cross-shore winds, combined with rain and thunderstorms. Swell is down to 1.6 ft–2 ft and the conditions are poor. Not a day to be in the water. Keep the board in the car and go find something else to do.

Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th is a flat, mushy period. Swell stays tiny at 1.6 ft to 3 ft, periods are still decent (14 to 16 seconds) but the wind is mostly cross or light cross-off, and the energy is weak—combined swell energy readings are between 129 and 621. It’s surfable but ordinary. You’d be scratching for waves, and the quality just isn’t there.

But then we get the real standouts toward the end. From Thursday the 20th to Saturday the 22nd, things clean up nicely. Thursday the 20th: 2 ft SSW groundswell, 18-second period, and glassy light ENE winds in the morning. The combined energy is 204—still on the lower side, but the wave shape will be clean and the conditions will be super user-friendly. This is a good window for the intermediate crew. Friday the 21st morning is even better: 2.3 ft SW swell, 16-second period, and the wind goes glassy. Dead calm. That’s your dawn patrol sweet spot. Combined energy sits at 315, so it’s weak-to-moderate, but the quality will make up for it. Crowds are possible, but it’s worth it.

Saturday the 22nd morning keeps that clean theme: 2.3 ft from the SSW, 16-second period, light ENE breeze, cross-off but clean. Easy paddling, long period means longer lulls, better shape on the reef. Very pleasant.

Now, looking way out

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