Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at Keaulanas for the next couple of weeks. This is a beach and reef set-up that’s consistent and exposed, so it picks up a bit of everything. The water temp is sittin’ around 82°F with an anomaly of 1°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – no surprises there.

Alright, so the pattern for this stretch ain’t gonna set the world on fire. There’s a long, flat-ish gap right from the start. Forget Saturday the 23rd – that’s barely a ripple and the wind is howlin’ offshore at 19 mph, but the surf is only 2 ft on a long 15-second period from the SSW. The combined energy is weak (232) and it feels more like a tease than a session. Honestly, there’s nothing worth paddling out for until we get further along.

From Monday the 24th right through to Saturday the 30th of August, we’ve got a big dead zone. The swell stays tiny, wind is cross-off or off, but the surf quality is ranked poor or marginal at best. The combined energy stays under 400 most of the time – weak. That’s a solid week of flat-to-crappola. It’s not lookin’ great.

Now, things start to flicker to life on Monday the 31st of August. The morning shows 2 ft of SSW swell with a 15-second period and light offshore wind from the ENE at 12 mph. The combined energy is still moderate (248), but the report says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s our first real nod. The afternoon gets even better – 2 ft but with a very long 20-second period from the S, and the energy jumps a bit (379). That long period on a beach and reef set-up can make for some clean, lined-up waves, but it’ll be gappy between sets. Crowds are “sometimes,” so you might have a bit of company.

The standout for this whole outlook – and I mean the one to circle on your calendar – is the morning of Tuesday the 1st of September. We’ve got 3 ft of SSW swell at an 18-second period, with moderate offshore wind from the ENE at 16 mph. The combined energy is pumping at 732 – that’s moderate, but solid for this spot. The optimum direction is from the W, so this SSW is a bit off, but it’s still a strong, clean system. The afternoon is similar but a hair smaller (3 ft, S, 18s) with a fresh offshore breeze. This is the pick of the litter: clean, lined-up, and enough push for an intermediate. Don’t sleep on it.

The rest of the first week of September is hit-and-miss. Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd have 3 ft to 3 ft of S swell, but the wind is cross-off and the quality is marginal. The energy is dropping off (509 to 281). Not a disaster, but nothin’ to race for.

Then we hit another lull. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th of September are pretty weak – 2 ft to 2 ft, short period around 13 seconds, and the energy tanks (126 to 236). Not your day out.

Finally, Sunday the 6th of September brings another decent window. We’ve got 3 ft to 3 ft of SSW swell with a long 17 to 18-second period, and the wind is offshore and clean. The energy is moderate (377 to 477) and the reports say “expect good surf conditions.” This is the late-blooming call for the second week – a clean, long-period groundswell that’s best on this reef setup. The Monday the 7th edges up to 4 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period, but the wind swings cross-off and the quality drops back to marginal. Still, the combined energy is strong (597 to 622). If you’re keen on a bigger lump that’s a bit blowy, you could give it a crack, but the cleanliness is better on Sunday.

So, overall: this ain’t a classic run. The real bright spot is Tuesday morning the 1st of September – that’s your best chance for clean, solid chest-high waves with some grunt in the line. Sunday the 6th is your second shout if you’re patient. The rest is mostly small, choppy, or cross-off and not worth the paddle.

Stay wet.
– Rusty

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