Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks at Keaulanas.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next few days are going to be a bit of a mixed bag, and it’s not all going to be firing. The swell is there, but the wind and conditions are going to be fighting us. We’ve got a decent pulse of energy coming in, with combined wave energy hitting over 2200 on Sunday and Monday, which is a solid, moderate-to-strong push of power. But don't get too excited just yet – the wind is going to be a real issue for the quality.

The first real shot of surfable waves starts on Sunday, September 6th. We’re looking at a 5ft to 5ft SSW swell, with a 12-second period, so it’s a mid-period groundswell. The combined energy is sitting around 778 to 871, so it’s got some grunt, but the cross-off wind from the east at 12 mph will keep it clean enough for the more experienced crew. Water temp is 81°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Come Monday, September 7th, the swell ramps up nicely – 7ft to 8ft from the SW, with the period stretching out to 14 seconds. Combined energy jumps right up into the 2000s, so there’s real power in the water. But here’s the rub: the wind swings to a cross-shore and then a fresh cross on Monday afternoon, making things lumpy and choppy. This is really only going to be for the experts; 8ft is pushing it for the rest of us, and with that chop, it’s not going to be pretty. Might even be more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session.

By Tuesday, September 8th, it’s dropping off fast. The wind turns cross-on and it’s choppy, with swell dropping to 3ft by the afternoon. The energy is still moderate at 1225, but the quality is gone.

The standout window in this whole outlook, and the one I’d be circling, is Thursday, September 17th into Friday, September 18th. This is where it all comes together. We’ve got a clean 3ft to 3ft SSW swell, but the period is a very long 16 to 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, with lots of energy and shape. Combined energy sits in the 550 to 768 range, which is moderate but punchy for the size. The real beauty is the wind: light to moderate offshore from the ENE, keeping it glassy and clean. This is a classic Keaulanas day – the long-period SW groundswell will wrap in nicely and hold its shape on the reef and beach sections. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so if you can get in early on the Thursday morning or Friday morning, you’ll be in for some of the best waves of the fortnight.

Other than that, the second week is pretty slim. There’s some small, clean surf around 2ft to 3ft from the 11th to the 13th, with light offshore winds, but it’s pretty weak. Energy is down around 100 to 300, so it’s more of a longboard or funboard kind of session.

Honestly, if you’re waiting for a proper pulse, the real action is in that third week. The first week is a write-off for quality, the second week has a few clean but small windows, and the third week has that one real standout on the 17th and 18th. Don’t hold your breath for the early days – just wait it out for that Thursday and Friday.

Rusty.

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