Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s going on at Keaulanas. This is a beach and reef setup, consistent, and it faces west for the best swell. The water’s sitting at about 81°, which is right around average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The whole 16-day window is a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, we’ve got a long stretch of nothing special to work through. The first few days, starting Wednesday afternoon the 5th and into the 6th, we’ve got tiny 1ft SSW swell with a very long 15-second period. That’s a groundswell, but it’s weak as anything – the combined energy is only 134 (134) on Wednesday afternoon, dropping to 81 (81) Thursday morning. The wind is light and offshore from the east, so the surface will be glassy clean, but you’re really just scratching for ankle-biters. Not much to get excited about.

Friday the 7th is more of the same, 1ft swell, but the period drops to 14 seconds. Still clean with cross-offshore winds, but the energy is low (77 to 99). Saturday the 8th sees a tiny bump to 2ft on Saturday morning, with a longer 18-second period, but the wind picks up to 25 km/h from the ENE, making it a cross-off breeze. The combined energy climbs to 396 (396) Saturday morning, but the conditions are still poor. We’re really just treading water here.

Sunday the 9th through Monday the 10th, the swell stays tiny, 2ft to 2ft, with periods around 15-18 seconds. The wind is moderate, 15-25 km/h, and the reports are calling it marginal or poor. On Monday afternoon there’s even a risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the sky. The energy is moderate, around 267 to 343, but it’s not translating into anything rideable for a surfer.

Now, we start to see a glimmer of hope on Tuesday the 11th. The swell bumps up to 2ft to 3ft, 14-second period, but the wind drops to a light breeze Tuesday morning, just 10 km/h. That morning session is the first real bright spot – the guidance says “expect good surf conditions,” and with the energy at 218 (218), the waves will have a little more push. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean and inviting. This is the best of the early stuff.

But the real standout is Wednesday the 12th. The swell jumps to 3ft to 4ft, coming from the south with an 18-second period. That’s a proper long-period groundswell, and the energy is strong – 853 (853) in the morning, peaking at 1118 (1118) in the afternoon. The wind is still a moderate 20-25 km/h cross-off, so the waves will be clean and lined up. This is the best day of the whole forecast. The waves will have some real shape and power, but remember, with that long period, it might break a bit straight on the beach sections. The reef here should help organize it. For intermediate surfers, this is your window.

From Thursday the 13th onward, the swell holds around 4ft to 4ft, still from the south, but the wind gets fresh, blowing 25-30 km/h from the ENE. The energy stays high (805 to 866), but the conditions are marginal to poor as the wind chops it up. By Friday the 14th and into the weekend, the swell starts to fade, dropping from 4ft down to 2ft by Sunday the 16th. The wind stays fresh, sometimes 35 km/h, so it’s going to be messy and blown out. Not worth paddling out.

The second week, from Monday the 17th to Wednesday the 19th, the swell is small again, 2ft to 2ft, with a short to moderate 12-15 second period. The wind is still fresh offshore or cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the energy is low (110 to 261). The call is marginal or poor. Thursday the 20th fades out with 1ft swell and 12-second period, energy down to 80 (80). That’s it.

So, the one true standout is Wednesday the 12th of August. The south swell will be solid, with 3ft to 4ft waves, 18-second period, and clean cross-off winds. The energy is strong (1118 in the afternoon), and the reef at Keaulanas will handle that long period well. For a beach and reef break, this is the session to aim for. Tuesday the 11th morning is a close second with light winds and improving conditions. The rest of the window is either too small, too windy, or both. If you’re not keen on the crowd, the spot does get “sometimes” crowded, so keep that in mind.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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