Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a close look at what’s coming up for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one spot on the radar, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out run of small to moderate swell with a lot of cross-off wind. It’s not a classic week by any stretch, but there are a couple of windows where things line up nicely. The water is sitting at 80°F, which is about 0.5°F above the long-term average – so pretty much normal for this time of year, no surprises there.

We kick off on Sunday the 12th with some waist-high groundswell rolling in. The swell is coming from the SW at 3 ft, with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, but it’s being worked over by a fresh ENE breeze at 19 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 425, but the wind is making it messy. Sunday afternoon cleans up a bit with the wind turning offshore, but it’s still marginal – not a day to get too excited about.

Monday the 13th is similar. The swell drops a touch to 3 ft from the SSW, still with a long period. The wind is still cross-off in the morning, but the afternoon shifts to a moderate offshore breeze. The combined energy is 368, and it’s labelled as “good surf conditions” – that’s a small step up. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about.

Now, here’s the standout. Tuesday the 14th. The morning has a light offshore breeze from the ENE at just 6 mph, with a 3 ft SW swell at 14 seconds. The combined energy climbs to 429, and conditions are clean. But the real gem is Tuesday afternoon. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph offshore, the swell shifts to a clean 2 ft from the W with a 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 582 – that’s the strongest reading in the whole run. The forecast says “very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer. Keaulanas is a consistent spot, and with that clean offshore wind and a long-period W swell, the waves should be well-shaped, glassy, and fun. It’s intermediate-friendly at that size, but those long-period sets will have some punch.

Wednesday the 15th through the weekend is a bit of a slog. The wind stays cross-off, the swell hangs around 2 ft to 3 ft, but the energy drops off a cliff. The combined energy falls to the 170-236 range by Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, with the forecast calling it “surfable but very ordinary.” It’s not great, but it’s not flat.

We get a little pulse again around Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st. The swell picks back up to 3 ft from the S on Tuesday morning, with a 15-second period and a combined energy of 411. The wind is a gentle offshore breeze, so it’s clean. That’s a solid runner-up for the best window, but it doesn’t quite match the quality of that Tuesday the 14th afternoon.

Looking further out into the second week, things get a bit more promising but less certain. Around Thursday the 24th, we see a 2 ft swell from the SSW with a very long 20-second period – that’s a real groundswell. The combined energy is 419, and the wind is a moderate offshore 16 mph. The size is small, but that period is special. It’ll be clean and likely lined up nicely at Keaulanas, but it’s a long-range call, so treat it with cautious optimism.

The 26th and 27th of July continue the trend of clean offshore winds and moderate groundswell, with the 27th morning looking particularly tidy with a gentle offshore and a 3 ft S swell.

Overall, the standout is Tuesday the 14th of July afternoon – that’s your day. The rest of the run is a mix of small, clean waves and ordinary cross-off slop, but there’s enough consistency here to keep the hope alive. Keaulanas is a consistent spot, so it won’t stay poor for long.

Rusty.

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