Keaulanas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's cookin' in the water for the next couple of weeks.

We've got a long patch of flat, weak surf for the first week, with a few clean windows but nothing worth paddling out for. The real action is a late-arriving bump of energy that builds in the second week, but it's a bit of a mixed bag.

First up, Keaulanas. The water is a warm 81°, which is dead average for this time of year. Right now, we've got a few days of "blah." Sunday morning, August 2nd, you've got a tiny 2ft swell from the SSW, but it's wrecked by a fresh 19 mph cross-off wind. The wave energy is weak at 148, and it's just poor surf. Sunday afternoon goes offshore, but the swell is so tiny it's not worth a look.

Monday and Tuesday, August 3rd and 4th, are the same story. Knee-high dribble, 1ft to 2ft. The good news is Tuesday morning is glassy, dead calm. The swell is still tiny, but for a longboard, it might be the only game in town. The wave energy is a pathetic 46 to 75. It's surfable, but very ordinary.

Wednesday, August 5th, sees a spike in period with a 16-second groundswell, but the height is still only 1ft. The energy bumps up to 132, which is still weak. Glassy conditions will make it look pretty, but you'll be waiting a long time between sets.

Thursday the 6th is more of the same – glassy, tiny, but the energy drops back down.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. From Friday, August 7th, through to the middle of the next week, we see a steady increase in the combined energy of all swells. The numbers climb from 191 up to a massive 1150 by Wednesday, August 12th. But the catch is the wind. It's a relentless cross-off from the ENE, 12 to 19 mph. The swell height starts to tick up, hitting 4ft to 4ft by the 12th, coming from the S. The period is dropping from a very long 21 seconds down to 17 seconds, which is still long period groundswell. This long period stuff is better for a point or reef, but Keaulanas is a beach and reef setup. The wind is going to chop it up, and the reports are calling it marginal. Not ideal for a paddle board.

The standout for this whole period, and the only time I'd really get excited, is Monday, August 10th. The forecast is for "expect good surf conditions" with a score of 2 out of 10. The swell is still a modest 2ft from the SSW, but it's got a solid 16-second period, and the energy is moderate at 303. The wind is a gentle 9 mph offshore in the morning, picking up to a moderate 12 mph in the afternoon. This is the cleanest, most rideable window we're going to get. It's not a big day, but the conditions will be right. Since it's a consistent spot, it's worth a look, though keep in mind it can get crowded sometimes.

After that, the swell continues to build through the 12th, 13th, and 14th, hitting 4ft, but the wind stays cross-off, and the conditions are repeatedly called marginal. The wave energy is strong, hitting 1150 on the 12th, but it's not aligned with the best conditions. This setup is starting to look more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys, because the wind is clean but the waves are just fat and lumpy.

The energy finally starts to fade on the 16th and 17th, dropping back to 2ft from the W, with the wind still howling. The run ends pretty much flat and blown out.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The second week has a building swell, but it's mostly a wind-affected mess. The best bet is that Monday, August 10th, with the clean offshore winds and a bit of long-period groundswell. It's the only half-decent option in the whole 16 days.

Rusty.

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