Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I'm looking at the charts for our little slice of coast over the next couple of weeks. Let's be real with each other – it’s going to be a grind. We’ve got one spot on the radar, and it’s a mixed bag.

The overall pattern is pretty flat and borderline. We’re looking at Refugio State Beach as the only game in town, and honestly, it’s a tough one. The water’s sitting at a very unusual 70°, which is about 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a wild anomaly to have right now.

We start here on Sunday the 13th of September. There’s a pulse of swell coming in at 7 ft from the WNW, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’s lacking that real punch and shape. The wind is a cross-offshore from the NW at 12 mph, which will keep the surface clean, but the combined energy is only moderate at 639. Don’t expect much power in the lineup. That kind of wind and swell might make for a tough paddle out for the beginners here.

Into Monday the 14th, the swell drops to 6 ft, also from the WNW, with a slightly better 8-second period and the combined energy jumps up to a more moderate 898. Early morning looks glassy, with a light onshore breeze from the SW at just 3 mph, which is a major plus for cleanliness. This morning window is probably our best shot in the entire 16-day window, even if it’s still just marginal.

After Monday morning, it’s a long, sad story. From that Monday afternoon all the way through to Sunday the 27th of September, we’re looking at a solid string of days with poor to marginal conditions. The swell drops to under 3 ft for most of that time, bouncing between SSW and SW directions with short to long periods. There’s a couple of late-period long period swells in there (17-19 seconds) from the SSW and SW, but with barely any height (2 ft to 3 ft), they’re just not going to wrap in with any power at this beach-and-point setup. The cross-shore and cross-on winds are a constant buzzkill. One interesting note is the Sunday the 20th afternoon session: a 3 ft SW swell with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the NW at 9 mph. It’s tiny, but the conditions will be glassy.

Then, on the 28th of September, Monday morning, there's a subtle bump in the combined energy to a strong 728, with a 2 ft swell from a 20-second-period SW. That’s a very long period groundswell, which usually means better shape and energy, but it’s way too small to do anything at Refugio. It’s a tease. The winds are light and cross-on, so the surface is okay, but the wave height just isn’t there.

Long story short: the only window that could be worth a look is Monday morning, the 14th of September, for an early paddle. Otherwise, it’s going to be a tough run. Hang in there – it tends not to stay this quiet for long.

- Rusty

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