Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm gonna level with you straight up – this next 16 days for Refugio State Beach is a real tough stretch. The forecast is calling it "marginal" pretty much right through, and it never really gets its act together for a proper session. The water's a stonking 69°F currently, which is way warmer than usual for this time of year – nearly 7°F above average, which is seriously unusual.

The first bit of action kicks off Friday afternoon, July 24th. We've got a 2ft swell from the southwest, but it's a long-period groundswell at 24 seconds – that's very long. That sort of energy tends to just run straight down the beach, so you're better off looking for a point or reef setup. The combined energy is moderate at 654, but the wind is a light cross-onshore, so it's not clean. Honestly, it's a tough ask.

Saturday, July 25th, the swell bumps up to 3ft in the morning, still from the southwest, with a period of 21 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (920). Light cross-onshore wind again. The afternoon drops to 2ft, period 20 seconds, with a cross-shore wind. Still marginal.

Sunday, July 26th, gives us 3ft from the southwest again, but the morning has a proper offshore wind from the SW at 3 mph. That's a major positive – that glassy, clean look. The period is 19 seconds, combined energy 769. It's the best of a bad bunch, but it's still a "marginal" call. The afternoon sees the wind swing to the WNW at 9 mph, putting a cross-chop on it.

Monday, July 27th, we get 4ft in the morning from the SW, period 18 seconds, combined energy 997 – getting close to strong. Still just light cross-onshore wind, though. It's not grabbing me.

Tuesday, July 28th, is the biggest we see for a while. Morning swell hits 4ft from the SSW, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1406 – that's a strong reading. The wind is offshore from the SW at 6 mph. This is the standout of the whole outlook. It's the only day with a score of 3/10, which tells you everything. The swell size is manageable for a beginner.

From Wednesday, July 29th, through to Friday, July 31st, we see the swell hang around 3ft to 5ft, periods dropping from 16 seconds down to 14 seconds. The energy stays moderate to strong, but the wind is always cross-on or cross-shore. It's a lot of effort for not much reward.

The first week of August is where it really falls apart. From Saturday, August 1st, through to Saturday, August 8th, the forecast is littered with "poor surf conditions" and scores of 0/10. We get a few pulses of 5ft to 6ft on the 1st and 2nd, but the period crashes to 8 or 9 seconds – that's short-period, choppy windswell. The combined energy drops from 1096 down to 123. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, and the water temp anomaly isn't even given for the rest of the run. By Monday, August 3rd, the swell is down to 1ft, and it only gets smaller from there.

For a beach and point setup like Refugio, with that very long-period groundswell coming in, it's gonna be straight and tough to catch. The only real window is that Tuesday morning, July 28th, with a 4ft SSW swell, a 17-second period, and offshore wind. That's your best bet, but keep your expectations in check – it's still a "marginal" call. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off, with a big gap of nothing from August 3rd onwards.

Rusty.

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