Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into the 16-day outlook for Refugio State Beach.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn't a vintage run for Refugio. We're looking at a long, drawn-out period of marginal surf. The swell energy is there in the water, with readings like 449 and 452 popping up early on, which is moderate energy for sure, but the problem is that the conditions are just never quite coming together for a proper session. The direction is consistently from the SSW to WNW, with a lot of that long-period groundswell around 14 to 16 seconds, which has plenty of push but can make things a little tricky on a beach and point setup.

The water temperature is sitting at a very unusual 69°, which is a staggering 7° warmer than average for this time of year. You’re gonna be swimming in bathwater out there, which is pretty wild for August.

The standout moment, and it’s really the only one worth getting excited about, lands on Sunday, 31st August. The morning is a write-off with onshore wind, but the afternoon brings a change. We see the swell bumping up to 6ft from the WNW, and while the period is a short 6 seconds, the combined energy hits 504. What makes this potentially good is that the wind goes light cross-onshore from the SW, just a slight air, which could keep it cleaner than anything else we've seen. It still won't be perfect, but it's the best chance of a rideable wave in this entire outlook. For beginners, that 6ft might be pushing the limits though.

Before that, there's a whole lot of nothing. From the middle of August right through to the 30th, the forecast is littered with scores of 0 or 1. The swell hangs around the 2ft to 4ft range but the wind is almost always a cross or cross-onshore breeze, creating ripples and chop. It's not total flatness, but it's the kind of surf you drive past. The 22nd afternoon and the 23rd afternoon look particularly weak, dropping to 1ft with long periods that will just wall up.

Later on, around the 28th and 29th, we get some cleaner cross-offshore winds from the NW, but the swell is still small, around 2ft to 3ft, so you'd be hunting for little nuggets. The energy is strong (560 on the 28th afternoon) but it's a lot of water moving with not much shape on offer.

So, the call is simple. Don't bother for the next two weeks. Keep an eye on that Sunday 31st August afternoon for the only real window we've got.

Rusty.

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