Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – there’s nothing on offer that’s going to have you calling in sick. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got a run of small, marginal surf, and the forecasts are pretty consistent in calling it mediocre. The good news is, Refugio State Beach is a fairly consistent spot, so it’s not a total blank, but it’s gonna test your patience. The standout, if you can even call it that, is the bump on Sunday, August 2nd, but even then it’s nothing to write home about.

Let’s break it down. The water is sitting at a very unusual 69°F, which is a massive 6°F warmer than you’d expect for this time of year. It’s like bathwater out there.

We kick off on Monday, July 27th, with a tiny 3 ft SSW swell. The energy is weak (857), and with a 19-second period, that’s a very long period groundswell. It’ll be breaking straight at the beach, so you’ll want to be on the point here. The wind is a light cross-shore, which is okay, but it’s not enough to make this small stuff good.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th are more of the same. We’re looking at 3 ft to 4 ft SSW swell with long periods (16-17 seconds). The wind stays light and variable, mostly offshore in the morning, which is a positive. But the energy is moderate (698-1242) and the wave comment is “marginal.” It’s rideable, but don’t expect any gems.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st see the swell direction shift a touch more southerly, still around 4 ft to 4 ft, but the period drops to 12-15 seconds. The energy is moderate (575-1075). Winds are light and cross-onshore in the afternoons, so the mornings will be your best bet for a cleaner surface. Honestly, it’s still pretty average.

Now, for the best on offer: Saturday, August 1st, is a bit of a weird one. The morning is tiny at 3 ft, but the afternoon brings a new pulse from the WNW at 6 ft. The problem is the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit crumbly and weak. The energy is moderate (604), but it’s a surfable size. The wind goes light cross-shore, so it’s worth a look if you’re desperate.

The one to keep an eye on is Sunday, August 2nd. The morning sees a solid 7 ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds. This is a moderate energy swell (1121). This is right at the limit for beginners, but for the average surfer, it’s a fun size. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so it won’t be glassy, but it’ll be clean enough. The afternoon drops to 5 ft, but the energy falls off a cliff to 511. This is the most size we see all fortnight, but it’s short-period and a little bumpy.

After that, it’s a slow fade. Monday the 3rd through Wednesday the 5th of August are small (1 ft to 5 ft), and conditions are poor. The energy drops to weak levels (124-330). Honestly, this stretch looks like it might be better for a kite than a paddle.

The second week, from the 6th of August onward, is a write-off. Tiny swells, long periods, and very weak energy. It’s a flat spell for the most part. The water is still warm, but there’s just no power to work with.

So, to sum it up: if you’re itching for a paddle, Sunday morning, August 2nd, is your best bet, but lower your expectations. The rest of the month is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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