Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, hard look at what’s coming down the line. Honestly, we’ve got a rough stretch ahead. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and uninspiring for Refugio State Beach. There’s no real swell on the menu, so don’t get your hopes up for anything decent.

Right out of the gate on Thursday afternoon, the 30th of July, we’ve got a bit of swell rolling in from the South at 4 ft with a nice long 14-second period. That’s a solid groundswell, and the water temp is sitting at a very unusual 68° (about 5° warmer than average for this time of year). But here’s the kicker – the wind is a light cross-onshore from the WSW, making for a bumpy surface. The combined energy is weak at 627, and the report calls it "poor surf conditions." It’s a real shame.

Friday the 31st is more of the same. Morning shows similar 4 ft South swell with clean offshore wind from the SW, which sounds good, but it’s still just marginal. The afternoon stays small at 3 ft with a cross-shore wind that’ll put some ripples on the face.

The weekend goes a little wonky. Saturday the 1st of August, we see a shift to a shorter-period, 8-second WNW windswell at 5 ft. That’s a messy, weak energy (625) and the cross-onshore breeze won’t help. The water is still weirdly warm. Come Sunday morning the 2nd, the swell bumps up to 6 ft from the WNW, which is getting a bit too chunky for beginners, but the period is still short at 9 seconds, and again, the winds are onshore or cross-onshore. The energy is moderate (892), but the quality just isn’t there.

After that, it’s a long, slow, painful drop-off. From Monday the 3rd of August all the way through to the 14th of August, we’re looking at mostly 1 ft to 3 ft waves. The energy readings drop from around 385 all the way down into the double digits (like 92 on the 6th). Most of these days are flagged as “poor surf conditions.” There’s a little spike on the morning of the 7th of August with a very long 19-second period from the SSW, but the swell height is only 2 ft, so it’s barely a bump on the beach. A long-period groundswell that small just won’t wrap in properly here.

The real heartbreaker is that there’s a solid 9-day gap here where there are no worthwhile waves to chase. Even the later part of the second week, around the 12th of August, sees a little bump with a 2 ft SW swell at 16 seconds and moderate energy of 515, but the cross-onshore wind kills any hope of a clean face.

So, what’s the best on offer? If you’re desperate for a paddle, the Friday morning (31st July) and Sunday morning (2nd August) are the two least worst options. Friday’s got that 4 ft S swell with clean offshore wind, but the energy is low and the shape is questionable. Sunday’s got the most size (6 ft), but it’s a short-period windswell that will be a bumpy mess. Neither is a standout.

Given the small, weak, and poorly-shaped swells and the persistent light cross-onshore winds, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer for most of the period.

Stay patient, folks. The ocean’s just having a nap.

Rusty.

Read more