Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for our stretch of coast.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a slow start and a long, drawn-out affair. We’ve got a window that opens up, but for the first several days, it’s gonna be a grind with only marginal waves. The real standout window is gonna be that Saturday afternoon on the 19th of September, but we’ve got a bit of a wait for it.

Starting off on Saturday the 12th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got weak little 2 ft SW swell with a cross wind, and the combined wave energy is a measly 239. The water is sitting at a toasty 71°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year. It feels like a warm bath, but there’s just no push.

Sunday the 13th shows a bit more life. Morning brings in 5 ft from the WNW, but the period is short at 8 seconds and it’s cross-shore, making for a bumpy surface. The energy jumps to 438, but the quality isn't there. The afternoon is actually the pick of the first few days. The swell builds to 7 ft from the WNW with a clean cross-offshore wind from the NW. That’s the only time in the early run with decent shape, but the combined energy is a moderate 715, and the period is still a short 8 seconds, so the waves will be a bit soft and crumbly. It’s a decent window for the more experienced crew, but nothing to write home about.

Monday the 14th, the swell drops back to 6 ft in the morning, but we have a light onshore wind from the SW, killing the shape. The afternoon is smaller at 4 ft and cross-shore again.

Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th see the swell fade into the 4 ft to 2 ft range with poor wind directions. The energy drops to the 250 to 336 range, and the conditions are just messy. On Wednesday we do see a shift to a long-period 17-second SSW groundswell, but it’s only 2 ft and blown out by onshore winds. A long-period groundswell like that wants a point or a reef, but it’s just too small to matter here.

Thursday the 17th through Saturday morning the 19th is more of the same – tiny 2 ft to 3 ft SW groundswells with periods from 15 to 19 seconds, but the wind is either onshore or light cross-onshore. The energy stays in the 350 to 454 range, which is still weak, and the waves will be small and weak. It’s a tough stretch.

Now, Saturday afternoon on the 19th of September is where it gets interesting. The swell stays small at 2 ft from the SW, but the period is a solid 18 seconds, and we get a clean cross-offshore wind from the NW. The combined energy bumps up to 544, and the forecast is calling for "good surf conditions." This is the one true standout. It’s not a big day, but for a clean, long-period groundswell with light offshores, Refugio State Beach will be looking clean and lined up. The swell is small enough for beginners, but the long period means better shaped waves. Crowds are likely here, so get in early.

Sunday the 20th, the morning is back to marginal cross-onshore junk, but the afternoon sees a pulse of 5 ft WNW swell with an 8-second period and light cross-shore winds. The energy jumps to 836, but the short period means it won’t have the same quality as the day before.

From Monday the 21st right through to the end of the period on Sunday the 27th, it’s a slow fade. Swell sits between 2 ft and 3 ft, periods vary from 13 to 19 seconds, but the winds are almost always onshore or light cross-onshore. The energy drops from 557 down to 184 by the 26th. There’s no real quality, just small, weak, and messy surf. The last few days are especially poor, with scores of zero.

So, the bottom line: if you can wait, the afternoon of Saturday the 19th is your best bet for a clean, if small, session. Everything else is either blown out, too small, or both. A long, flat run, but that one afternoon could be worth the wait.

Rusty.

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