Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are going to be a real mixed bag around here. Honestly, for the first few days, it’s looking pretty flat and weak. The swell energy is low, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, which is never a good look. We’re going to have to wait a bit for anything worthwhile to show up.

Refugio State Beach is the only spot on the radar, and it’s a bit of a tease. It’s a beach and point setup that’s fairly consistent, but the waves are going to be small and messy for a while. The water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a nice touch, but it doesn’t make up for the lack of surf.

The first few days, Tuesday through Thursday, are a write-off. We’re looking at weak, short-period swell, maybe 1ft to 2ft, with onshore or cross-onshore breezes. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate to get wet.

There’s a slight bump in energy come Friday the 7th and into the weekend. The swell period jumps up to 17-19 seconds, which is a good sign, but the wave height stays stubbornly small, around 2ft to 2ft. The combined energy kicks up to the 300s, which is moderate, but it’s still marginal at best. The wind is light, but it’s still coming from the wrong direction. The morning might be the better bet, but be prepared for some questionable conditions.

The following week, from the 10th to the 13th, we see a bit more activity. The swell period is still decent, and the energy is moderate, but the wave heights are still hovering around 2ft to 3ft. It’s still not going to be epic, but it might be enough for a fun, small-wave session if you're on the right board. The wind remains light, which is a positive.

Now, looking further out, the weekend of the 15th and 16th starts to show a bit more promise. The swell is still small, around 3ft to 3ft, but the period is solid, and the energy is getting stronger, up into the 400s and 500s. The swell direction is from the SSW, which isn’t the optimum for this spot, but it’s not terrible. The main issue is the afternoon winds picking up and making things choppy. The mornings are the time to be out.

The real standout in this whole window looks like Friday the 14th. The combined energy is strong, hitting 587 in the afternoon, and the swell is up to 3ft from the SSW with a 18-second period. That’s a legit groundswell. The problem is the afternoon wind is going to be a cross-onshore chop maker. The morning of the 14th is looking the best of the best, with 2ft and a 19-second period, and light winds. It’s not huge, but it’s going to be the cleanest, most powerful wave of the stretch. That’s my pick for the best session.

After that, the 17th, 18th, and 19th are more of the same. Small, cleanish waves in the morning, with the afternoon winds messing them up. The energy stays moderate, and the swell direction stays SSW. It’s not going to be a classic, but there are waves to be had if you’re keen.

The setup here is more of a summer small-wave grind. The swell is mostly long-period, which can be a bit tricky at a beach break, but the point section might handle it better. Crowds are often a factor here, so expect some company.

So, to be blunt, there’s not a standout, can’t-miss swell in this forecast. But if you’re flexible and can get out in the mornings, there are a few windows of fun, clean surf. The best bet is the morning of the 14th, with the 15th and 16th as backups. The rest is just a waiting game. Keep an eye on it, though, because forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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