Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna level with you straight up: this 16-day window for Refugio State Beach is a real tough one. We've got a continuous stretch of waves, but the quality is just not there for a good paddle session. The surf is small and the conditions are often messy. The first real chance for anything worth mentioning is right at the start, but it's a long shot.

Right now, from Friday July 10th through the weekend, we're looking at knee-high waves with a long period swell from the SSW. The swell energy is moderate, around 508 (moderate wave energy), but the wave comment says it's marginal, and the scores reflect that. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore, which will keep things bumpy. It's a tough call for a beginner-friendly spot, but the water temp is about average for the time of year, so it's not freezing.

The whole first week is a grind. Swell stays tiny, mostly under 3 ft, through the 14th. The energy drops significantly, down to 205 (weak wave energy) on the 14th, with a cross-shore wind that's no good for clean waves. The period is long, around 15-18 seconds, which is a groundswell, but it's just too small to do anything with at a beach-and-point setup.

We see a slight bump in size around Wednesday the 15th, with a short-period swell from the WNW pushing 4 ft in the morning. However, the period is only 8 seconds, which is weak and won't produce much shape. The afternoon gets worse, jumping to 6 ft with a 12 mph cross-shore wind, making it a choppy mess. The energy is there (531), but it's not surfable surf.

The best of a bad bunch looks like it might be Friday July 17th morning. The swell is 5 ft from the WNW, and the wind is light and offshore. The energy is ramping up to 794 (moderate wave energy). The period is a short 9 seconds, so it won't be the most powerful, but with glassy conditions, Refugio might have a few clean, crumbly lines for the longboard. It's still a marginal call, but it's the only window with clean offshore wind and a bit of size.

After that, we slide back into small, inconsistent surf through the end of the third week. The swell goes back to long-period SSW groundswell, but it's all under 3 ft. The conditions are either onshore or cross-onshore, killing any chance of a good wave.

Then, on the morning of Friday July 24th, we get a spike. The swell jumps to 6 ft with a short, 8-second period from the WNW and a very light offshore breeze. The energy is solid at 604. That's a raw, weak swell, and it's a week and a half out, so it's not a sure thing. The afternoon looks worse, with a 7 ft swell and a 7-second period, which is just a washing machine. That size is pushing into expert territory, and with that short period, it's going to be a close-out mess. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the only real standout is the morning of Friday July 17th, for a chance at a clean, if small, longboard session. The morning of Friday July 24th could be a big, powerful, but very messy day for experts only. Otherwise, it's a lot of small, onshore, frustrating waves.

Rusty.

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