Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the pipe for this stretch of coast.

First up, the water is way warmer than it should be for this time of year – a solid 69°F with a 6°F anomaly. That's very unusual, so don't expect that classic fall chill in the water just yet.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, and honestly, there's nothing that's going to blow your mind on the daily. The early part of the period is pretty small. From Wednesday the 9th through the end of that first week, we're looking at tiny waves, mostly in the 2 ft to 3 ft range with a mix of cross and cross-offshore winds that might keep things clean but will leave you scratching for a ride. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (356 to 490).

The weekend of the 12th and 13th sees a pulse of short-period windswell from the WNW. Saturday morning is a bit junky with a 4 ft cross-on swell (energy 390), but the afternoon cleans up with a cross-offshore wind and a 6 ft swell. The period is a super short 6 seconds, so it'll be a bit of a bumpy, close-out mess for the beach breaks. Sunday afternoon is the best of that weekend, with a 6 ft swell and a clean cross-offshore breeze, but again, the period is only 7 seconds.

The real standout, the one that has my attention, is Saturday the 19th. We get a solid 7 ft swell from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds. The combined swell energy is a strong 1250, so there's plenty of power in the water. The morning looks clean with a light cross-onshore breeze. Now, 7 ft is pushing into territory that's too big for beginners, and at a spot like Refugio State Beach (a beach and point setup), that long-period groundswell will be better suited for the point rather than the beach break. It's an expert-level day, but the potential for a few good ones on the point is real.

Following that, Sunday the 20th drops off quickly to 5 ft, and the rest of the week settles back into the same pattern of small, mostly marginal surf around 2 ft to 3 ft with moderate energy levels (426 to 599). The crowds at Refugio are often around, so keep that in mind.

Overall, it's a period of waiting for that one Saturday. If you're an experienced surfer, mark the 19th on your calendar. For everyone else, the rest of the time is a lot of waiting for small, inconsistent waves.

Rusty.

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