Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks at Refugio State Beach. It’s a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that’ll get you frothing.

The overall pattern is a slow burn. We’ve got a bit of swell in the mix, but the quality is often held back by iffy wind direction. The first few days are pretty marginal, so don’t expect to get the board wet until later in the period. The water is sitting at 66°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the 4/3 at home.

The first real chance to get a smile on your dial looks like Thursday, July 23rd. The afternoon session is the pick. We’ll see a 4ft swell from the S, with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the NW. That’s a recipe for some fun, lined-up waves. The combined energy is moderate (783), so there’s some push behind it. It won’t be huge, but it’ll be clean and rideable. This is a good spot for beginners given the size, and it’s fairly consistent, so you’ll get waves. Just be aware that it can get crowded here often.

The weekend of July 26th leaves a bit to be desired. The swell drops off, and the wind is mostly cross-on. There’s a little window on Sunday afternoon, July 26th, with a clean cross-off wind, but it’s only small stuff at 3ft from the SW.

Now, the real standout of the whole forecast is Monday, July 27th. The morning looks promising with a 4ft swell from the SW and a light offshore wind, and the combined energy jumps up to a strong 1571. That’s some serious juice. The afternoon cleans up further with a 3ft swell from the SSW and a clean cross-off breeze from the NW. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and I’m with it. The only caveat is that the swell period is long (19 seconds), which is a classic groundswell – it’ll wrap around the point nicely here, but it might be a bit too straight for some beach breaks. If you’re on a log or a fish, you’ll be in heaven.

After that, it tails off quickly. The second week is a real struggle. From July 28th through the end of the month, it’s all small, marginal slop with onshore or cross-on winds. The swell direction turns more southerly, and the energy fades. By the start of August, we’ve got a new pulse of short-period windswell from the WNW on August 2nd, with a 7ft height, but the period is a pitiful 6 seconds. That’s just a messy, bumpy closeout. The wind is light, but that won’t save it. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board.

There’s a pretty big gap in good surf from the end of July through the first few days of August. The last few days of the forecast are a write-off with weak energy all the way down to 90 on the 4th of August.

So, to sum it up: your best bet is Thursday afternoon, July 23rd, and the absolute standout is Monday, July 27th. That’s the day to call in sick.

- Rusty

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