Refugio State Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long look at what’s coming down the pike for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn’t a classic stretch for Refugio State Beach. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out run of small waves and wind issues. The first real session of the forecast starts on Wednesday the 2nd, but it’s a tough one. You’ve got a clean little 2ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, but that NW wind is blowing 16 mph. That’s a cross-off breeze that will keep the surface textured, not exactly silky. The water is sitting at 69°F, which is a whopping 6° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, so you might not even need a spring suit.

Thursday the 3rd is a bit of a mixed bag. The morning shows a tiny 2ft SSW groundswell with a long 15-second period, but it’s messy with a light cross wind. The afternoon bumps up to 2ft out of the SW, but the period stretches to 18 seconds and the cross-shore wind picks up, putting a chop on it. The combined energy is getting moderate (454), but the conditions just won’t polish up.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are more of the same grinder. You’ve got a 3ft SSW swell hanging around, but the winds are either cross-on or straight onshore. The energy is moderate (561 on Friday morning), but the quality is marginal at best. It’s that kind of week where you’re just hoping for a lull in the wind.

Sunday the 6th is where things get a little more interesting. The swell shifts to the S and builds to 4ft in the morning, hitting 5ft by the afternoon. The period sits at a solid 13 to 14 seconds. But here’s the rub – the wind is light cross-on both sessions. It’s not going to be glassy, but with that combined swell energy climbing to 750 (moderate to strong), there’s a bit more push. That’s likely the best window we see all week, but it’s still just a “good enough” call rather than a standout.

From Monday the 7th through to the middle of the second week, the pattern gets pretty grim. The swell drops back to around 3ft, periods drop into the 11 to 13-second range, and the wind stays cross or cross-on. On Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th, we get a sniff of that NW cross-off wind again, which cleans things up, but it’s blowing 16 to 19 mph and the swell is only 3ft to 3ft. That’s difficult to surf – you’ll be battling the wind for a knee-high wave.

After the 11th, it’s mostly downhill. Swell sizes slip under 3ft, periods get short, and most sessions are getting a “poor” or “marginal” call from the data. There’s a spike on the 17th of September where a 1ft SW groundswell shows up with a very long 21-second period and a combined energy of 318 (weak), but with onshore winds and tiny size, it’s not really a goer for a paddle surfer. That kind of long-period groundswell at a beach and point setup like Refugio can break a bit straight, and with no size, it’s a tough sell.

Look, if you’re desperate, Sunday the 6th is your best bet for a morning session. The swell is the biggest of the run, the water is warm, and the wind is light. But don’t expect perfection. Honestly, this stretch looks more suited for a kite session on those windier days than a surfboard. The forecasts can always change, but as it stands, we’ve got a week-plus of small, choppy conditions.

Rusty out.

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