Ponta do Ubu Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next two weeks are going to test your patience if you’re keen for a wave. The ocean’s been given the memo, but it’s not following it. We’ve got a long, flat, and junky stretch ahead, so let’s break it down day by day.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't show up until the morning of Thursday, the 13th. Before that, it’s a wasteland. From now through the 12th, the surf is mostly tiny, with a lot of short-period wind swell and messy cross-shore breezes. We’re talking about knee-to-waist high dribble at best, with the odd pulse of energy that gets chopped to bits by the afternoon onshores. The energy readings are weak, mostly in the double digits, like 19, 25, or 50 – just not enough push. There’s a slight bump on the 12th – a 4ft swell from the SSE, but the period is a dismal 6 seconds and it’s cross-on, so it’s just going to be a crumbly, lumpy mess. Good for a bodyboard if you’re bored, not for a surf.

Now, the one bright spot, and I mean the only one worth setting an alarm for, is the morning of Thursday, the 13th. The wind goes light and offshore from the NNE, and we finally see a pulse of groundswell. It’s not big – around 3ft – but it’s from the SSE with a proper 6-second period. Wait, that’s still short. Actually, let’s look closer. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” and the score is only a 1, so it’s not a classic. But it’s the first time the energy is over 100 (109) and the wind is clean. It’s a start.

The real standout, the one that’s got me a little excited, is the morning of Saturday, the 15th. The morning session looks like the pick of the entire run. The wind is light cross-off from the NNE, the swell is a clean 2ft from the SE with a solid 14-second period. The combined energy jumps to 249, which is a solid, moderate pulse. This is a proper groundswell, and the long period should give it some shape. It’s not going to be big, but it will be clean and have some push. Ponta do Ubu (Espírito Santo) is an exposed spot, so it’ll pick up anything going. The crowd factor is listed as “sometimes,” so you might see a few other heads out, but it’s not going to be a circus. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

The morning of Sunday, the 16th is a similar story – 2ft from the SE with a 14-second period, and clean cross-off wind. Energy is 253. It’s a bit of a repeat, but the comment mentions “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it might not be as good as Saturday. Treat it as a backup.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums for the rest of the window. The 17th and 19th have some small, weak swell, but the winds get strong and cross-shore, making it blowy and messy. The 18th is flat. The 20th shows a pulse of 3ft from the east, but with a 6-second period, it’s just wind chop.

So, there you have it. A long, flat start, one average Thursday morning, and one genuinely promising Saturday morning. The water temps are about average for this time of year, so a good spring suit is all you need. Don’t get too worked up about the long-range stuff; forecasts can change, but right now, the 15th is your best bet. Keep your eyes on that one.

Rusty out.

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