Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what we’ve got coming in for Jacaraipe over the next couple weeks. I’ll be straight with you – we’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead, so don’t get too fired up just yet.

The whole period starts with a grim run. From Saturday the 29th right through to Tuesday the 1st of September, the wind is pumping hard from the north and northeast, 16 to 19 mph, and the swell is short-period windswell, mostly in the 4 ft to 6 ft range. It’s cross-off in the mornings, but the combo of weak peaky energy (combined energy 230 to 491) and that constant breeze just makes for messy, poor surf. Nothing to get out of bed for.

Wednesday the 2nd teases us a bit with a south-southwesterly breeze swinging cross at 9 mph in the morning, swell bumping to 5 ft from the east-northeast (8 seconds). The combined energy sits at 339 – still just moderate – and the wave comment calls it “marginal.” There might be a couple of half-decent ones if you’re desperate, but it’s not the good stuff.

We then fall back into poor conditions right through the first week of September. Thursday and Friday the 3rd and 4th are messy cross-shore wind, dropping swell sizes. Saturday the 5th has a clean morning with 3 ft from the southeast, but the period is short and it’s a “marginal” call.

Here’s where you need to mark your calendar: Sunday the 6th of September is the only real standout in the whole 16-day window. The morning brings light rain, glassy conditions – that’s dead calm wind, folks – and a clean 3 ft swell from the east-northeast (8 seconds). The combined energy is 315 – still moderate, but those glassy conditions make all the difference. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions” and the score backs it up. The afternoon stays glassy with a 4 ft southerly windswell. This is your best window. It’s small but clean, and perfect for beginners or anyone wanting a fun, stress-free session. The sandbar at Jacaraipe is exposed to the east, and the optimum swell direction in the guidance is east – so that ENE swell is a good match. The water temperature is 72°, which is about average for this time of year (anomaly -0.9°). Crowds are marked as “sometimes,” so you might see a few other heads, but nothing out of control.

After that high point, it gets ugly again. Monday the 7th brings a strong 22 mph SSW wind whipping through, lumpy cross-chop and a short-period 6 ft swell. That energy jumps to 630, but with that wind, it’s a mess. Tuesday the 8th is cross-shore moderate breeze with 3 ft from the SSE, period up to 11 seconds, but the wave call is “poor.” Then from Wednesday the 9th through Saturday the 13th, the pattern stays marginal at best – light breezes, small swells between 3 ft and 5 ft, mostly poor to marginal calls. The combined energy never really kicks into strong territory.

So here’s the bottom line: most of the next fortnight is a write-off. Don’t waste your time until that lovely Sunday the 6th of September. If you wait for that glassy morning, you’ll get the cleanest waves on offer. After that, it’s all downhill again. A bit of a bleak run for Jacaraipe, but forecasts can change. Keep an eye on the sky.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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