Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about what’s actually gonna be worth paddling out for at Jacaraipe over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the first stretch is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got waves, but the wind is just not playing ball. For the first week, afternoons are cooked by a solid cross-onshore wind, killing the quality. The mornings are the only window, and even then, it’s a mixed bag. The real standout mornings are on Sunday, July 19th, Monday, July 20th, and Tuesday, July 21st. That’s your best bet early on. You’re looking at a clean, 5 ft east swell with a modest 8-second period. The north to north-northwest wind is light and offshore, turning the sandbar at Jacaraipe into a proper little fun zone. The water’s sitting at 73°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is moderate, hitting 468 (Sunday morning) and 226 (Monday morning) – enough to push you along, but not a freight train.

After that, the forecast gets a bit grim. From Wednesday afternoon the 22nd right through to the end of July, the wind is messy, the swell is either weak or blown out, and the scores are low. It’s a long gap of frustrating days. We’re talking about a solid week of either cross-shore chop or onshore slop, with swell dropping to under 3 ft on a few days. The period stays short, around 7-8 seconds, so it’s just not gonna have any punch.

Now, for the patient ones, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The Monday morning of July 27th is a bit of a wildcard. A clean 5 ft swell from the southeast, with a light north offshore wind, and the ratings are decent. The combined energy is a solid 261, so it’s got some life. But the real promise is a week later. Wednesday morning, July 29th, is looking like the pick of the whole run. We’ve got a clean 4 ft swell from the east-southeast, light north offshore wind, and a combined energy of 242. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and after a week of nothing, that’s gold. The break is fairly consistent, so you’ll find a wave. Keep in mind, crowds are possible here, especially when it’s clean.

For the beginners, the 5 ft stuff is fine, but when it bumps to 5 ft on the 2nd of August, that’s getting a bit more grunty, and with a short period, it’ll be a bit dumpy. The very end of the run, on Sunday, August 2nd, has a 5 ft east-northeast swell, but the wind is cross-on and the combined energy is strong at 482. It’s a messy, powerful wave that’s probably better for the kite crew than a paddle surfer.

So, bottom line: hit the mornings of July 19th, 20th, and 21st for your best early waves. Then, wait it out. The real standout is Wednesday morning, July 29th. It’s a bit of a promise, but it’s the cleanest, most consistent option in the whole second week. Keep your eyes on it.

Rusty.

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