Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s chew through this forecast for the local break.

The first real chance to paddle out is Monday morning, September 14th, at Jacaraipe. This is a sandbar spot exposed to the east, perfect for beginners. We’re looking at a tiny 3ft east swell, 8-second period, with combined energy of just 117—real weak sauce. But the wind is glassy, swinging out of the east at just 3 mph, so the surface will be like a mirror. Water temp is right around average for this time of year. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s surfable and clean.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Monday afternoon straight through, the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore and the quality tanks. Tuesday the 15th starts okay but winds hit 12 mph from the NE by afternoon, making it choppy with a small 3ft swell. Wednesday morning the 16th is another bright window: glassy wind from the west at 3 mph, a 3ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, and combined energy is a moderate 299. The call is “expect good surf conditions.” That’s your best window in the first week if you want clean, small waves. By Wednesday afternoon, it’s back to blown out.

Thursday the 17th has 5ft swell but cross-onshore winds ruin it. Friday morning the 18th gives us another glassy moment with a 3ft SSE groundswell at 11 seconds – 282 energy – could be alright for a quiet session. Then the weekend is a total loss: Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th are lumpy and onshore. Monday the 21st has clean cross-offshore wind in the morning, but the 5ft swell is short-period (8 seconds) and only marginal.

Into the second week, the pattern holds. The best long-range call is Friday morning, September 25th, when we get cross-offshore wind from the north at 12 mph, clean conditions, and a 4ft NE swell (7-second period) with 234 energy. It’s only a marginal forecast, but the clean wind makes it the most promising run in that stretch. For kite or wing surfers, the bigger days with strong cross-onshore winds, like the afternoon of September 22nd (5ft at 8 seconds, 565 energy) or the 26th afternoon (8ft at 7 seconds, 651 energy), will absolutely rip.

There’s a gap of blown-out surf from the 20th through the 22nd, and then again from the 23rd to the 26th. The final day, September 29th, Tuesday morning, is dead calm with a tiny 2ft swell – barely a ripple.

Bottom line: the standout is Wednesday morning, September 16th, for a glassy, clean session in small waves. Second pick is Friday morning, September 25th, for the clean wind. Everything else is a wind fight. A clean 3ft wave beats a blown-out 6-footer every time.

- Rusty

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