Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down for Jacaraipe. Over the next sixteen days it’s mostly a dud until we hit that second week. The first week is flat, weak, and blown out, but there’s one solid window you need to mark on your calendar.

This Saturday, July 25th? Forget about it. We got 0.9m from the ENE with a short 7-second period, combined wave energy of 174 – that’s weak. Onshore wind makes it a choppy mess. That theme runs right through Sunday the 26th, Monday the 27th, and Tuesday the 28th. Tiny swell, wrong wind, total graveyard. Wednesday and Thursday the 29th and 30th are small too – you get some north wind but the period is only 5 seconds and the swell is pitiful. Energy stays under 182.

Now Friday the 31st of July morning: glassy. Dead calm wind. Swell is still only 1.1m from the north-northeast with a 6-second period, so no power, but it’s clean enough for a grovel session. That’s the only sliver of hope in the first week, and it’s ordinary at best.

The weekend of August 1st and 2nd is a tease – clean mornings with offshore wind, but the swell is still waist-high or smaller. The energy jumps to 234 on Saturday afternoon but onshore wind chops it to bits.

Second week is where it gets real. Monday August 3rd morning: swell jumps to 1.6m from the south, period still short (6 seconds), but combined energy hits 314. Clean and cross-offshore, but still marginal.

Tuesday August 4th morning – massive jump in energy. Combined energy hits 981 (strong). Swell is 1.8m from the SSE with a long 12-second period (groundswell). Light cross-shore wind. This is the first day with real power. The long period will give it shape, but at a beach break like Jacaraipe it might wall up and close out. Still, it’s your best option until...

Wednesday August 5th morning: this is the one.
Glassy conditions – wind from the north-northeast at 3 mph, so dead calm. Swell is 1.7m from the east with a 8-second period. Combined energy is 956. The call is “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s going to be clean, with good shape and push. The waves will be around chest to head-high – solid. Beginners might struggle a bit as it gets bigger toward 1.9m in the afternoon, but intermediates will love it.

But from Thursday August 6th through Saturday August 8th, the swell gets too big for this spot – 2.1m to 2.5m with energy over 1000, peaking at 2520 on the Saturday morning. That’s big, powerful, and the wind is cross-onshore. Not a paddle surf day – this is kite territory or expert-only. The average surfer should sit it out.

By Sunday August 9th morning, the swell drops to 1.8m from the east, clean with offshore breeze, and energy still solid at 568. That’s a fun, clean morning for those who waited.

Water temp is about 74°F – normal for this time of year. Crowds are sometimes an issue, but Wednesday morning with the size and early hour, you should be fine.

Your standout window is Wednesday August 5th morning. The first week is a washout. Don’t bother before that.

Rusty.

Read more