Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s happening at Jacaraipe over the next couple of weeks. It’s a real mixed forecast, and to be honest, there’s a heap of waiting around involved. This sandbar really loves a clean east swell, but we’re mostly seeing a lot of short-period, cross-shore junk for the bulk of the run. There’s a solid stretch of days in the middle where it’s pretty much a washout.

Your one true standout, and the session to circle on the calendar, is Saturday the 15th. We’ve got a proper SSE groundswell pushing in at 5ft with a long 14-second period. The wind goes glassy out of the SSE at just 3 mph early, so it’s going to be absolutely clean. The energy is pumping (1004), so there’s plenty of power. This is more for the experienced crew as it’s got some heft, but for a few hours, Jacaraipe is going to be on fire. Expect a few other folks out there, it’s that kind of day.

Before that, Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are nothing special. Thursday morning is a bit messy with a 4ft SSE swell and a cross-off N wind, and it gets worse in the arvo. Friday has light S winds but it’s crossed up with only 4ft and moderate energy (636). It’s rideable, but not a standout.

Then we hit a long, dry patch. From Sunday the 16th all the way through to Monday the 24th, the quality drops right off. That’s a full week of short-period slop, mostly under 6ft, with a lot of onshore and cross-onshore breezes. The energy readings drop into the low hundreds or two hundreds. It’s choppy, messy, and honestly, not worth paddling out for a surf. The swell directions are all over the place – E, ENE, S – none of it matching what this break needs. A big gap with no good options at all.

Things start looking a little more promising right at the end. Tuesday the 25th morning has a small but clean 3ft SSE swell with a WSW cross-off breeze. The energy is low (222), but conditions are clean and it’s a good one for beginners. Then Wednesday the 26th morning gives us another potential highlight: a 5ft ENE swell with a clean N cross-off. The period is a short 6 seconds, so it won’t have much shape or punch, but it’s clean and the energy is moderate (546). It’s a long-range call so don’t bank on it yet, but worth watching.

Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th mornings also show clean N cross-off winds, but the swells are small and weak, so it’s more of a longboard kind of day.

Water temp is feeling about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

So, the takeaway: get out there Saturday the 15th morning for the real deal. After that, you’re basically waiting until the last few days of the month for another shot at something clean, and even then, it’s not the same quality.

- Rusty

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