Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at what’s coming up for Jacaraipe over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, this sandbar isn’t gonna be firing much, and there’s a big dry spell at the start. The first real chance to even think about paddling out doesn’t come until Wednesday, September 2nd, and even then it’s a struggle. The swell energy is moderate at best, with combined energy readings hanging around 300 to 500 for most of the first week, nothing to get excited about.

The first few days—Sunday, August 30th through Tuesday, September 1st—are a write-off. The wind is howling from the north and northeast at 15 to 19 mph, with cross-off and cross conditions, but the swell is short-period wind chop at 7 to 8 seconds, and the wave comment reads “poor surf conditions.” You’re looking at chest-high messy stuff, not worth a second look.

Wednesday, September 2nd morning brings a slight shift. The wind drops to a light breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, and the swell is 5.2 ft from the ENE at 8 seconds. The combined energy is 338, which is moderate, but the comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” The waves are there, but the tide might be a pain. It’s a sandbar, so longer period swells (like the 14-second stuff later) can make it break too straight, but for now, this is short-period and not horrible. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The next few days—Thursday, September 3rd to Saturday, September 5th—are a mixed bag of cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions. The swell height bumps up to 6.6 ft on Thursday morning from the south at 8 seconds, with a combined energy of 570, but the wind is moderate and cross, so it’s not clean. Friday morning has a bit of clean cross-off wind from the north at 12 mph, with a 4.3 ft SSE swell at 9 seconds, but it’s still just marginal. The energy is moderate at 368.

Now, the standout in this whole outlook is Sunday, September 6th morning. The wind goes glassy—zero wind from the northwest—and the swell is 3.6 ft from the ENE at 8 seconds. The combined energy is 244, which is on the weaker side, but the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” This is your cleanest window by far. The swell direction is east-northeast, and the optimum for this break is east, so it’s close. The surf will be small, maybe waist to chest, but glassy and clean. The water temp is average, so no drama there. Crowds are possible at Jacaraipe, so you might have a few others out, but with the overall lack of swell, it’ll be quiet.

The second week gets a bit more interesting, but it’s a gamble. Monday, September 7th afternoon has a long-period swell from the SSE at 14 seconds and 4.6 ft, with combined energy jumping to 892—moderate to strong. But the wind is strong from the south at 16 mph, and the waves are messy. Still, that long period means more energy and shape, if the wind cooperates.

Tuesday, September 8th is a real tease. The morning has a tiny 4.3 ft swell from the SSE but with a very long period of 18 seconds, and combined energy of 1338—strong. The wind is light from the SSW at 6 mph, with a cross-shore, and the wave comment says “marginal.” The afternoon is similar, with 5.9 ft swell at 16 seconds and energy at 1712, but again, cross-shore wind. This is groundswell, and at a sandbar, it can break too straight, so it’s tricky.

The true highlight of the whole run is Wednesday, September 9th morning. Glassy conditions again, with a light north wind at 3 mph, and the swell is 3.9 ft from the SSE at 14 seconds. The combined energy is 729—moderate to strong. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best of the lot. The swell direction (SSE) is off from the optimum (E), but with that long period and glassy wind, the waves will have shape and power. It’s not huge, but it’s clean. The water temp is average, so no surprise there.

After that, the rest of the second week fades out. Thursday, September 10th through Sunday, September 13th is mostly poor, with cross-shore winds, lumpy conditions, and dropping swell. The combined energy is moderate to weak. The last day, Monday, September 14th morning, has a 8.2 ft swell from the ESE at 9 seconds, with combined energy of 1472—strong. The wind is a gentle cross from the south at 9 mph, and the wave comment says “wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break.” At 8.2 ft, that’s expert-only territory, and the sandbar might be a mess. It’s the biggest swell of the period, but only for the brave

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