Jacaraipe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

Overall, this 16-day window for Jacaraipe is a real mixed bag. We’ve got persistent swell, but the wind is going to be our biggest enemy for most of the run. It’s a frustrating stretch because there are moments where it looks like it could turn on, but the wind chops it up or blows it out. We’re looking at a long, dry spell right from the start with no real surf on offer until we get into late July.

First up, the earliest we might see something halfway decent is early Monday morning, the 27th of July. Now, that morning is a real tease. The wind goes glassy, calm as anything, and we’ve got a 3ft SSE swell with a moderate combined energy of 203. It’s small, but with that glassy surface, it’s going to look clean. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. But that’s it for the morning. By Sunday afternoon the 26th, the wind is already a cross-on mess, and Monday afternoon is back to being poor.

After that brief window, we hit a dead zone. From Tuesday the 28th all the way through to the morning of Friday the 31st of July, it’s just poor surf conditions day after day. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross, keeping the surface bumpy, and the swell is all over the place with short periods. The energy stays low, often under 200. Not worth paddling out.

Friday the 31st of July morning gives us a little glimmer. The wind goes glassy again, WSW at only 3 mph. The swell is a tiny 2ft from the NE, period is a weak 6 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 63. It’s surfable but very ordinary. Still, if you’re desperate, it’s the cleanest you’ll see it in a while.

Then we get into August. The first real standout in this whole outlook is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August. The wind is a clean cross-off from the north at 9 mph, and we’ve got a 3ft SSE swell with a solid 12-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 283. That’s moderate energy, and with clean conditions, Jacaraipe as a sandbar break should produce some fun, lined-up waves. The crowd is marked as "sometimes," so you might have some company, but it won’t be a zoo. Keep in mind that long period swell like this (over 11 seconds) can be a bit straight at a beach break, but the sandbar shape might just work.

After that, we’re back into a rut of poor conditions through the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th of August. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the swell period drops back to short, messy 5-7 seconds.

Looking further ahead, the morning of Wednesday the 5th of August has potential. The wind is offshore from the north, and we’ve got a 4ft SSE swell with a 12-second period. The combined energy here is a strong 600 – that’s some serious push in the water. The forecast is calling it marginal, but with that clean offshore flow and a long period, it could be one of the better windows if you time it right. Be aware, with a 4ft swell and that much energy, it’s still manageable for intermediates.

The 7th of August morning is another one to circle. North wind at 9 mph, cross-off, with a 4ft swell from the east at 8 seconds. The combined energy is 440, strong and clean. Then, the 8th of August morning goes glassy again with a 4ft east swell at 8 seconds and 269 energy. That’s a nice, clean setup for a morning session.

Finally, the last real highlight is the morning of Monday the 10th of August. Glassy, calm, zero wind. We’ve got a 4ft east swell, 8-second period, and 217 energy. It’s the smallest of the good windows, but with conditions like that, it’ll be as clean as a whistle. A perfect morning for logging some easy turns.

Overall, the best on offer is a tie between the 1st of August morning with that long-period groundswell and the morning of the 5th of August with the strong energy and offshore wind. The rest of the time, you’re mostly fighting the wind.

Rusty.

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