Playa do Carreiro Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, what's up, it's Rusty, and I'm gonna break down the next 16 days for you here at Playa do Carreiro. This is a river break that's exposed to the west-northwest, and it's usually fairly consistent. Right now, the water temp is about what you'd expect for this time of year, so no need to worry about a surprise chill.

Alright, let's get into it. This forecast starts with a bit of a slow roll. Sunday the 23rd is the first day we've got something to work with. The morning session is where it's at with a clean 5ft swell from the west, period of 10 seconds, and a light cross-off breeze from the NNE. The combined energy is a solid moderate 479, and it's looking good. Afternoon goes south, though, with a strong cross-on wind, so don't get too excited after lunch.

Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th are a write-off. We're looking at short period, weak swell, and trash winds. Just don't bother. Wednesday the 26th is the same story with a risk of thunderstorms and fresh cross-onshore winds. Thursday the 27th brings a bit more size, with a 7ft to 8ft swell from the west-northwest, but it's still cross-on and the forecast is only marginal. It's gonna be a paddle battle for not much reward.

Now, Friday the 28th. This is the big one, but it's a double-edged sword. We've got a solid 10ft groundswell from the WNW with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 2122, so it's pumping. The wind is gentle cross-shore. But here's the catch – the models are saying this swell is too big for this break. This is one for the experts only, and only if you know the river mouth well. This is gonna be a heavy, powerful, and potentially dangerous day. For the average surfer, and especially beginners, this is a "stay on the beach and watch" kind of day.

The real standout comes on Saturday the 29th. After the big swell drops, we get a clean-up. The morning is looking prime with a 6ft swell from the NW, 9-second period, and a glassy, offshore wind from the NNE at just 3 mph. The combined energy is a solid 471. This is the best session of the whole run. The wave quality will be good, it's a manageable size, and the wind will have it looking like a postcard. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, so you might have some company, but with conditions this good, it's worth it.

Sunday the 30th is a bit of a letdown after that. We get a glassy morning, but the swell is down to 4ft, and the energy is weak at 141. Just small, ordinary waves. The rest of the first week and into the second week is a long, slow decline. From the 31st of August through to the 7th of September, the surf is small and weak. Most days have swell under 3ft and very low energy, barely breaking 100. The winds are often cross-off and clean, but there's just no power in the water. By the 7th of September, we start to see a glimmer of hope again with a 5ft, 12-second period swell building, but that's a long way off and the forecast is less certain.

So, to wrap it up: if you're coming to Playa do Carreiro in this window, your best bet is Saturday the 29th. Get there for the morning session. That is the one. Sunday the 23rd morning is a decent backup. The rest of the time, you're looking at flat to small, weak waves, and one day of dangerously big swell. Keep an eye on that Saturday the 29th, and you'll be laughing.

Rusty.

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