Playa do Carreiro Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Lookin’ at the next 16 days for our local stretch, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s gonna be a long, dry spell before we see anything worth paddlin’ out for. The first week and a half is basically a write-off, with tiny, weak waves and poor surf conditions. The good news is, there’s a bit of a pulse comin’ in the second week, but it’s a long wait.

From now through the 26th of July, it’s all small stuff. You’re lookin’ at waist-high or below, with swell energy barely ticklin’ the 20–30 mark. Winds are mostly cross-shore or onshore, leavin’ the surface a bit of a mess. The 25th and 26th show a tiny spike in energy (combined energy of all swells directed here hittin’ 99 on the 25th morning) but it’s still just ankle-snappers. Honestly, you’d be better off doin’ somethin’ else.

Then, things start to shift. On the mornin’ of Monday the 27th of July, the wait might just be over. Playa do Carreiro gets a shot of life. We’re talkin’ a clean 5ft swell from the NNW, with a period of 7 seconds. The wind? Dead glassy. Absolutely flat calm. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy of all swells directed here sits at 249, which is moderate—enough to get a few half-decent runners. This is the standout. It’s the only mornin’ in the whole window that offers “expect good surf conditions” and glassy wind. It’s a river mouth setup, so expect some punchy little peaks. Because it’s the only decent option, expect a few locals out, especially since crowds are “sometimes” an issue here.

The afternoon of the 27th gets a bit bigger—7ft—but the wind swings onshore and the combined energy jumps to 458 (strong). The conditions turn marginal, and with that size, it’s probably shapin’ up a bit messy for the river mouth.

The rest of the second week is a bit of a mixed bag. The 28th and 29th have some clean conditions with cross-offshore winds, and the swell period gets longer. On the 28th afternoon, there’s a 2ft swell from the NW with a 14-second period, which is a long-period groundswell (combined energy of all swells directed here at 238). That’s a nice, lined-up wave, but it’s small. The 29th morning bumps up to 4ft from the NW with an 11-second period (combined energy of all swells directed here at 510—strong energy), but it’s blowin’ a moderate breeze. Then the 1st of August mornin’ shows some promise for the very end of the window: 4ft from the NNW, 8-second period, with a gentle offshore wind (9 mph). Combined energy of all swells directed here at 215, and the report says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s a late call, but worth keepin’ an eye on.

So, to sum it up: the 27th of July mornin’ is the one to circle. Everything else is a gamble or a long-shot. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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