Noordhoek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’m looking at the surf outlook for the next couple of weeks in our stretch of coast. We’ve got a real mixed bag on the cards, with a solid but short window of clean conditions right at the start, followed by a long, gnarly run of windblown and oversized surf that’ll test your patience, before a few slightly cleaner but still marginal days start to creep back in around the 20th.

The best and most honest chance you’ll get is on Monday the 14th. Monday morning kicks off with the swell at Noordhoek (Western Cape) coming in at 5ft from the SW, with a nice, long period of 13 seconds on a groundswell. The combined wave energy is moderate at 623. The wind is glassy light from the NW and we’ve got light rain, so expect the surface to be clean as a whistle. Water’s sitting at 65°, which is about normal for this time of year. The afternoon holds too – the wind drops to nothing, the swell settles a touch to 4ft, still a clean SW groundswell with glassy conditions. This is the standout window: clean, workable, and decent energy. But remember, that longer period can make the wave break a bit straight on a beach setup, but on this reef, it should line up nicely. It’s an intermediate-level spot and crowds can show up sometimes.

Tuesday the 15th is a step down. Morning has the swell dropping to 3ft with a WSW cross-off breeze, clean but weaker. The window of decent surf is already gone after Monday. From Wednesday the 16th through to the 19th, we hit a wall. On Wednesday morning the swell jumps to 12ft from the SW with a short 10-second period and the wind is a cross-off at 22 mph. That’s a massive 2481 combined energy, and while the surface might be clean, it’s big and raw – really only for experts. By Wednesday afternoon and through Thursday, we’ve got onshore winds with the swell still above 8ft and combined energy over 3200 to 3300. That’s strong to very strong energy, and with the wind on it, the setup is blown out and messy. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday the 20th stay windy and messy, with strong cross-onshore breezes and the swell a bit smaller but still chopped up. For kite surfing, Wednesday through Saturday morning might look interesting with all that wind and significant swell, but for paddle surfing it’s a write-off.

There’s a slight break on Sunday the 20th. The morning has a smaller 4ft SW swell with a 13-second period, clean under a WSW cross-off at 16 mph (575 combined energy – moderate). That’s marginal but cleaner. The real catch is Sunday afternoon: the swell jumps back to 12ft from the SW with a short 9-second period and WSW wind at 25 mph (1730 combined energy). Still clean but it’s now a big, lumpy swell with a short period, so the quality will be poor.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are both blown out, with strong onshore winds and the swell at 5ft to 12ft. The 22nd has a 12ft SSW swell with a very long 15-second period – huge energy of 4724 – but cross-on winds chop it up. That’s for experts only if they can handle the paddle and the mess.

The final week gets a bit more manageable but still poor to marginal. From the 23rd to the 29th we see a gradual drop in swell size, mostly in the 4ft to 7ft range, with persistent easterly cross-on winds, making the surface lumpy. There are a few cleaner windows on the 26th and 27th with WSW cross-off winds and swell around 5ft to 6ft with 12-13 second periods. The combined energy on the 27th morning is moderate at 1043. It’s a bit better than the previous week but still marginal, with a cross-chop on the afternoon of the 27th. By Monday the 28th and 29th, the swell drops way off, below 4ft, and the winds stay wrong for clean conditions.

So the honest truth: if you can, hit it Monday the 14th. After that, it’s a long stretch of windy, messy, or oversized stuff until maybe the last week of September where you might get a small, clean-ish morning session. It’s not a great run for Noordhoek (Western Cape), but the forecasts can change. Keep your eye on it.

Rusty.

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