Noordhoek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for the Cape Peninsula.

First off, the water is real cold at the moment, about 63°, which is much colder than normal for this time of year – a solid 4° below average. You’ll want a thick steamer.

The forecast starts with a bit of a blank. There’s no worthwhile surf from now through the weekend. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd are a complete write-off with strong NE winds making a mess of things. We’re looking at a gap of a couple of days before anything is worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday morning, August 3rd. It’s still small, just 4 ft of swell from the SW, but the wind finally clocks around to a gentle NE breeze, giving us a clean, cross-off flow. The combined energy is moderate (616). It’s not a standout, but it’s a start. The afternoon gets messy again, so get in early.

Tuesday morning, August 4th, is similar – clean 4 ft SW swell with a light N wind. Good for a cruise if you’re keen. The afternoon, though, brings a strong WSW wind, which will be clean but howling.

Now, the big one. Thursday morning, August 6th, is the absolute standout of the entire 16-day window. The swell is a solid 16 ft from the SW (combined energy of 8148 – very strong) with a 13-second period. The wind is moderate WSW, cross-off, and the conditions are clean. This is proper, heavy groundswell. But – and this is a major caveat – at 16 ft, this is expert only territory. It’s too big for anyone but the most experienced. This is a reef break (Noordhoek), so that long-period SW groundswell will set up beautifully, but it will be a serious, heavy paddle. The crowds are sometimes an issue here, but on a day like this, you’ll have the place to yourself for good reason. The afternoon is still huge at 15 ft, but the wind swings cross-shore, creating a bit of a chop.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a story of massive swell but terrible wind. Friday the 7th (10 ft), Saturday the 8th (10-12 ft), and Sunday the 9th (10 ft) are all plagued by strong onshore and cross-shore winds, making it a washing machine. The surf quality is poor. At that size and with those winds, this spot is going to look more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle.

Later in the window, things calm down but the wind is still a problem. By Wednesday the 12th, the swell drops to 3 ft but with a very long 16-second period from the SSW. The wind is a strong W, but it’s cross-off, so it’s clean. It’s a small, slow day. Thursday the 13th morning has a cleaner 5 ft swell from the SW with a 16-second period – that’s that long period groundswell, which will be straight and fast at the beach, but at this size it’s a fun, mellow wave for a longboard. The afternoons after the 12th stay small and generally get hit by onshore winds again.

So, to sum it up: the only real standout is Thursday morning, August 6th, for experts only. If you’re not an expert, you’re better off waiting for a cleaner day in the second week, but the forecasts are less certain out that far.

Rusty.

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