Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright my friends, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Kealia. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this forecast is a rough one. We’re in for a long stretch of messy, wind-affected surf with very little to get the heart pumping.

The main problem is the wind. It’s blowing onshore from the E and ENE pretty much solid for the first two weeks, hitting 15 to 18 mph. That’s going to put a chop on anything that tries to form, and the surf quality is consistently poor. The swell is mostly short-period windswell, 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak and crumbly. The combined energy of all swells directed here is moderate, ranging from 300 to 700+ (moderate to strong energy), but with that wind, it’s just not going to work.

The water temp is 79° with a normal anomaly, so it’s fine for the time of year. That’s the only good news.

The first real window of hope doesn’t show up until July 21st. That’s a full 13 days of onshore junk. Then, on the 21st, we get a pulse of very long-period groundswell from the east, with periods of 18 seconds and a combined energy of 855 (strong energy). The swell height is only 3 ft to 4 ft, but that long period means it’ll have some punch. The wind is still onshore from the ENE at 12 mph, so it’s not perfect. But a long-period groundswell like this can wrap nicely into Kealia, and if the wind ever switches, it could be the best of a bad run. The 22nd also holds a similar setup with 3 ft to 4 ft and 15-second period, again with onshore wind.

For a standout, I’d point to the morning of July 21st. It’s the only time the swell direction (E) matches the optimum swell direction (NE) reasonably well, and that 18-second period is special. The surf is small, but it’s the only time the energy and period are truly notable. It’s a long-range call, so don’t plan your life around it, but it’s the one to keep an eye on.

Kealia is a fairly consistent beach and reef break, so it’s not a total desert. But with this much onshore wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one for the first 12 days. The crowds are often, so you’ll have company.

To be honest, the first 12 days are a bust. The 21st and 22nd offer a glimmer of hope, but it’s a long shot. Watch the wind, and if it ever turns offshore (WSW), then those long-period swells will be a dream.

Rusty.

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