Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Kealia over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore for the entire run, and the water temp is pretty average for this time of year, so nothing strange there.

Right from Tuesday the 11th, we’re seeing poor conditions. A weak, short-period easterly swell around 4 ft to 4 ft is gettin’ chewed up by a steady 9 mph cross-on breeze. Combined wave energy is weak, only around 160 to 177. Honestly, not worth paddlin’ out.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th don’t get any better. The wind picks up to 12 to 16 mph from the ENE, still blowin’ straight onto the shore. The swell bumps up a little to 5 ft by Thursday, but with a period of just 7 seconds and moderate energy around 211, it’s messy and chopped out.

Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th sees the swell pushin’ up a bit more. By Friday we’re lookin’ at 6 ft with moderate energy (363-418), and by Sunday morning it’s hit 8 ft with strong energy hitting 1354. But here’s the kicker – the wind is still on it, 19-22 mph, and by Sunday we even got rain showers and lumpy conditions. That’s not surf for the average joe, that’s one for the crew with big wave balls and even bigger patience.

Monday the 17th is actually a bit of a beast, with swell hitting 8 ft from the ENE and a long period of 11 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. Combined energy is very strong at 1512. But the wind is a full-on gale at 40 mph from the ENE. This is flat-out dangerous and messy. For paddle surfing, this is a hard pass. If you’re into kite surfing, the setup might get you interested, but not for us.

Finally, on Tuesday the 18th, things ease up just a little. The swell is still a solid 8 ft from the ENE with 10-second period and strong energy at 1057. The wind turns more cross-shore from the SE at 12 mph. It’s still marginal for the most part, but it’s the best we’re gonna see all week. It’s a beach and reef spot, and with the swell direction coming from the east-northeast, it’s not lining up perfect with the optimum NE direction. Still, if you’re desperate, Tuesday morning is your only half-decent window.

From Wednesday the 19th onward, it’s back to small, short-period junk. Swell drops to 3 ft to 5 ft through to Friday the 21st, with energy falling below 210. Onshore wind from the ENE sticks around at 9-12 mph. Then Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd see a bit of a bump back up to 7 ft-8 ft, but it’s accompanied by risk of thunderstorms and onshore winds again. Energy is moderate to strong (418-665), but the quality just ain’t there.

The last few days from Monday the 24th to Wednesday the 26th show a slow decline, with swell back down to 5 ft-6 ft and onshore winds still hammering it. Nothing to get excited about.

So, bottom line: there’s no real standout window here. If you absolutely have to get wet, the best chance is Tuesday the 18th morning when the wind is cross-shore and the swell is still solid. But it’s not gonna be pretty. The rest of the 16 days is a long, frustrating wait. Hang in there, and check back – forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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