Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming down the line for us.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. The only spot with any real data is Kealia, a beach and reef setup, and honestly, it’s a tough watch. The wind is hammering onshore from the East and East-North-East every single day, blowing at 12 to 19 mph, which is just trashing any chance of clean surf. The swell is all short-period windswell under 8 seconds, so it’s messy and weak. The combined wave energy starts off low at 173 (moderate), but even when it cranks up later, the conditions are just too blown out.

We’re looking at a solid gap here with no real recommendations. Starting Saturday the 8th through the entire first week, it’s all “poor surf conditions.” The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird there.

Now, there is one standout window, but it’s a long way out and comes with a big caveat. Around Friday the 14th and into the weekend of the 15th and 16th, the swell really starts to pump. By Saturday the 15th, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft swell from the East with a period of 9 seconds, pushing the combined energy up to 1916 (strong). By Sunday the 16th, it hits 13 ft at 10 seconds, with energy over 2600 (very strong).

But here’s the catch – the wind is still a howling onshore 16-19 mph from the ENE. For a break like Kealia that’s exposed, that’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. At that size, over 8 ft, it’s strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. Honestly, with that much wind and size on a beach and reef setup, this looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The period is around 9-10 seconds, so it’s not a proper long-period groundswell, just a big, chunky windswell. Crowds are likely to be there often, but I doubt many will be having a good time.

After that peak, things settle back down by the 18th into the 23rd, but the wind never lets up. It’s just more of the same onshore slop. The second week is a write-off for any quality waves.

So, the honest truth? There’s no standout session for a surfer in this 16-day window. The best of a bad bunch is that big swell around August 15-16, but only if you’re an expert with a death wish and a kite. Otherwise, keep the board in the car and wait for the forecast to change – it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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