Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a full 16-day window ahead, but I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough one. The forecast is basically a long stretch of onshore wind and messy conditions. There’s no standout clean window in the near future, so we’re looking at a proper grind for the next week and a half.

The first recommendation on the board is Kealia (beach and reef). It’s a fairly consistent spot, but crowds are likely here. The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is about average for the time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

We kick off on Tuesday, 4 August, with a cloudy afternoon and a 5ft swell from the ENE, but the wind is onshore from the same direction at 9 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 494. The swell period is 11 seconds, which is a decent long-period groundswell, but with the wind howling straight into it, it’s gonna be a mess. The comment says “poor surf conditions,” and I’m not gonna argue with that.

Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th aren’t any better. Onshore wind stays in the 9–12 mph range, swell drops a bit to 4–5ft, period drops to 8–10 seconds, and energy falls off to 186–356. Still all “poor surf conditions.” The wind is blowing onshore the whole time, so forget about any clean faces.

Friday the 7th is a bit weaker, with only 3ft swell and a short period of 6 seconds. Energy is down to 95 – that’s weak. It’s all just messy, small, and onshore. Not worth paddling out for.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th see a little bump in size to 5–6ft, but the period is still short (6–7 seconds) and the wind is onshore at 12–16 mph. Energy climbs back into the moderate range (210–358), but with that wind, it’s just lumpy and choppy. Still “poor surf conditions.”

The whole first week is a write-off. The wind never swings offshore, and the swell direction is always ENE or E – the same direction the wind is coming from. That’s a recipe for blown-out, bumpy waves.

Heading into the second week, things get bigger but not better. From Monday 10 August through to Wednesday 19 August, the swell builds from 4ft up to a solid 10ft, and the energy jumps into the strong range, hitting 1022–1575 by the 17th and 18th. But the wind stays locked in onshore from the ENE or E at 12–19 mph. The period slowly improves to 9 seconds by the 16th, but it’s still not enough to overcome the wind.

By the 18th of August, we’re looking at a 10ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period, and energy is peaking at 1575. That’s a lot of water moving, but with 16 mph onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. This is expert-only territory size-wise, and even then, the conditions are going to be full-on ugly. The setup here is a beach and reef, so with that much wind and swell, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The final days on the 19th still show 8ft dropping to 6ft, but the wind is still onshore. There’s no clean window in the entire 16 days. The forecast is brutally consistent with the onshore flow, and the optimum swell direction for Kealia is NE, but the wind is coming from the same quarter, so it’s all junk.

Honestly, there’s nothing to get excited about here. It’s a rare blank run, and for this area, that’s a bit of a downer. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long, but for now, I’d leave the board in the car and go grab a coffee.

Rusty.

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