Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for this stretch of coast. We’ve got a long outlook ahead, and honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn for the most part.

The pattern starts pretty quiet and stays that way for a solid week. The first week and a half is dominated by short-period, onshore wind swell that’s just not doing us any favours. That easterly wind is blowing straight into the beach, keeping things messy. There’s a big gap of poor surf from the start right through to the end of August, with only a brief flicker of hope right at the tail end of the window.

The first real sign of life doesn’t show up until the very end of the forecast. We’ve got a long wait. From the 20th of August all the way through to the 30th, it’s a whole lot of nothing. The energy is there, but the wind is just wrong. That onshore breeze is a killer.

Then, things get interesting. The standout in this entire 16-day window is the run from August 31st through to September 1st. The swell really starts to build around the 30th, but it’s still blown out. The real magic is on the 31st of August. We’re looking at a solid 8ft to 8ft swell pulsing in from the ENE with a beautiful, long period of 13 seconds. That’s groundswell, folks. The combined energy is roaring, hitting 1915 on the 31st afternoon. This is proper, powerful stuff. However, there’s a big caveat: the wind is still onshore from the NE at 15 mph. That’s going to be a problem. For a beach and reef setup like Kealia, which is exposed to the wind, it’s going to be a battle. The waves will have plenty of push, but it’ll be choppy and hard to get a clean wall. This is really one for the experts or for the kites, as it’s more about power than presentation. The water temperature is sitting pretty average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The 1st of September keeps the size around the 7ft to 7ft mark with that long period, but the wind stays onshore. The first afternoon gets a *marginal* nod, which is the best we see all period, but it’s still a compromised session.

After that, the swell settles back down through the first week of September, fading off to smaller, shorter-period windswell with that same pesky onshore wind. It’s not worth getting excited about.

So, the bottom line: If you’re an expert and you don’t mind a rough surface, the 31st of August has the raw power. For everyone else, this is a quiet period. The forecast can always change, but for now, it’s a lot of waiting for a session that’s going to require a lot of commitment.

Rusty.

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