Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. This outlook for Kealia is a real tough one to call. We’ve got a solid 16-day window staring at us, but honestly, the first two weeks are a write-off. The surf is there, but the conditions are just plain ugly. Every single day from the 14th of July right through to the 25th of July is marked by poor surf conditions. The wind is relentless, mostly onshore or cross-onshore from the ENE or E at 9 to 15 mph, keeping the surface messy and chopped up. The swell is hanging around 3 to 6 ft from the ENE or E, with periods mostly between 6 and 8 seconds, which is pretty weak and short-period stuff. The combined energy is moderate, bouncing between 129 and 574, but it’s all for nothing with that wind. There’s not a single standout session in this first stretch. A total blank run for any decent paddle surfing.

Now, if you look way out to the end of the window, things get a little bit interesting, but it’s a long wait. We start seeing a proper shift on the 26th of July. The swell period jumps way up to 16 seconds, which is a very long period groundswell. The combined energy gets strong, hitting 728 on the 26th morning and then 750 on the 27th morning. The 27th afternoon sees a massive 1028 in the combined energy – that’s very strong wave energy. The swell is coming from the E, around 4 to 5 ft. This is classic groundswell, and Kealia is a beach and reef setup. That long period stuff can sometimes break too straight on a beach, so it’s all about the banks. The wind on the 27th is still onshore from the ENE or NE at 12 mph, but that very long period energy is the only thing that gets a “marginal” score instead of a total zero. The 29th of July morning and afternoon see a little relief, with the wind dropping to a light breeze from the ENE at 6 mph, which is offshore here. The swell is 3 ft with a 12-second period, and combined energy of 348. That’s weak to moderate, but that light wind is a major positive for clean, glassy conditions. If you are a patient surfer, and you can get to Kealia (United States) on the 27th of July, or the 29th of July, that is your only real shot. The 29th is the standout for clean conditions, but the swell is smaller. The 27th has the power, but the wind is still not ideal.

So, the long and short of it: the first two weeks are a complete loss. The 27th offers a big, powerful, but potentially tricky groundswell. The 29th offers the cleanest conditions with a smaller, more manageable swell. Pick your battle, but don’t expect much.

Rusty.

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