Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming down the line for us at Kealia. Gotta be straight with ya, it’s a rough stretch of forecast ahead, so don’t go getting your hopes up too high too quick.

We’re looking at a long, dry spell to start. For the first few days, it’s pretty much a write-off. Friday the 4th and through the weekend, we’ve got messy onshore winds hammering the coast. The swell’s there—some of it pushing 8 ft—but it’s all wind-affected, short period stuff coming mainly from the east. The wave energy is moderate to strong, reading between 685 and over 2000, but with the wind howling, it’s just blown-out chaos. Kite surfers might have a look, but for a paddle surfer, this is a hard pass.

Come Monday the 7th, things get even uglier. A risk of thunderstorms and near-gale cross-onshore winds up to 31 mph make a mess of the 12 ft swell. It’s a danger zone, plain and simple. That said, the water temp is sitting around 81°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re watching from the beach.

Now, I’ll point out the one true bright spot in this whole 16-day outlook. It comes Tuesday the 8th of September. We finally get a break in the wind. The morning is showing a clean, cross-off breeze from the SSW at just 9 mph, and the afternoon goes lighter with a light breeze from the same direction. Wave energy is moderate (1170 in the morning, 885 in the afternoon). The swell drops to about 7 ft from the ENE with a 12-second period—solid groundswell that’ll make for some proper shaped waves at this beach and reef setup. The afternoon in particular looks excellent, with clean conditions. This is the standout window.

After that Tuesday, it’s back to reality. From Wednesday the 9th onward, we drop back into onshore winds and short, weak swell. Wave energy readings fall into the 300-700 range, swell heights around 5 ft to 8 ft, but with periods under 10 seconds and the wind staying on it, it’s just poor surf conditions day after day. The rest of the second week is pretty quiet—nothing really worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a bumpy session.

For a break like Kealia that’s fairly consistent, seeing this much poor forecast is a bummer, but it won’t stay poor forever—forecasts can always shift. For now, if you want one decent session, pencil in Tuesday the 8th. That’s your call.

Rusty, signing off.

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