Kealia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough stretch. The forecast is a long run of poor surf conditions, and we’re not seeing any real windows opening up for a decent paddle.

Right from the start, everything is looking messy. We’ve got a solid pulse of energy coming in, but the wind is completely ruining it. For Friday the 14th, we’re looking at windy conditions out of the ENE at 16 mph, creating onshore slop. The swell is 6 ft from the East, but with a short period of 8 seconds, it’s just disorganized. The combined wave energy is moderate at best (436), and it’s all blown out. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so nothing to write home about there.

The weekend gets worse. Saturday the 15th sees the swell building to 8 ft from the East, and the energy is jumping up to strong territory (1255), but the wind is howling at 19-22 mph. By Sunday the 16th, we’re looking at an 12 ft East swell with a near gale-force wind at 31 mph. That’s a washing machine, and the energy is very strong (2194). This is strictly for the crazy ones or the kite surfers – the beach-and-reef setup at Kealia is going to be a full-on battle and not a fun paddle.

The wind backs off a bit into the next week, but it’s still cross-onshore or onshore, and the surf quality remains poor. Monday the 17th has an 8 ft swell, but it’s lumpy and wind-affected. The energy drops through the week, from 808 down to 146 by Wednesday the 19th, but the wind never truly cleans it up. There’s a brief period of 9 mph winds and cleaner skies on Thursday the 20th, but the swell is tiny at 3 ft and the period is short – it’s just not enough to get excited about.

The second week, from the 21st through the 29th, is a real snoozer. The swell drops to knee-to-waist high at best, with the energy barely cracking 100-200 most days. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the surface bumpy. There’s a slight uptick around the 27th and 28th, with the swell pushing back to 6 ft-7 ft, and the energy climbs back into the moderate range (476-804), but it’s still onshore wind. The period is still short, so it’s not going to be any kind of treasure.

There is no standout session here. The spot is marked as “fairly consistent,” but the conditions are just not cooperating. This is one of those periods where you’re better off getting the gear ready for a better day. Keep an eye on forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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