Jennette's Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. I’m gonna level with you straight up. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead, but honestly, it’s a rough one for the Outer Banks. The recommendation engine is giving us nothing good, so we’re looking at a real drought of decent surf. Don’t shoot the messenger.

The first spot that even pops up is Jennette’s Pier. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is right on the money for this time of year – nothing weird there. But the surf? Forget it. For the first ten days, from Friday the 7th right through to the 16th, it’s a total write-off. Every single session is tagged as “poor surf conditions.” We’re talking tiny, weak swells, mostly under 2 ft, with periods so short you’d think you were in a bathtub. The combined energy is barely a whisper, with most readings under 50 (weak energy). Winds are all over the place – cross, cross-off, onshore – but none of it matters because there’s just no power in the water.

There’s a noticeable gap. Nothing. Nada. For over a week, you’re better off waxing your board and just staring at it.

Now, things get interesting, but not necessarily good. We have to wait over a week, until Monday the 17th. The swell finally shows a pulse. The combined energy jumps to 116 (moderate wave energy) on Monday morning and 143 (moderate wave energy) Monday afternoon. The swell height creeps up to 2 ft, and the period stretches to 11 and 13 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The direction is ESE, which is almost right for Jennette’s. But here’s the killer: the wind is NE at 9 mph, putting it cross-onshore. The forecast still calls it “poor surf conditions.” That smoother, longer-period energy is probably getting chopped up by the wind.

Tuesday the 18th is a bit of a letdown after that blip, with energy dropping back to 99 and 81 (weak). The wind shifts to cross-shore.

Then, on Wednesday the 19th, we finally get a little window of hope. Morning sees a 3 ft swell from ENE with a short period of 5 seconds, but the wind is cross-offshore from the SW at 12 mph, keeping it clean. The energy is 112 (moderate). The afternoon gets a bit bigger, 4 ft from ENE, and the wind is still cross-off from the SSW at 19 mph, but the energy jumps to 162 (moderate). It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen.

Thursday the 20th morning is the one true standout in this whole gloomy forecast. The swell picks up to 3 ft from the east, with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind goes cross-offshore from the WSW at 16 mph. The combined energy absolutely rockets to 288 (moderate). Conditions are clean. The forecast even upgrades to “marginal surf forecast.” For this stretch, that’s a win. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only day that’s even worth paddling out for. The swell direction is E, which is a good match for the optimum NE direction, so those lines should wrap in reasonably well.

After that, we fade back into the abyss. Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd drop back to tiny, weak energy with onshore winds. It’s a flat, choppy mess.

So, to wrap it up: if you’re desperate, set your alarm for Thursday the 20th. It’s the only day with a pulse. The rest of the 16 days is a total bust. There’s no consistency here, so a blank run like this is just the way it goes sometimes. Don’t lose hope, the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s looking grim.

Rusty.

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