Horseneck Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a write-off for quality waves at Horseneck Beach. The sandbar setup is giving us some small, messy swell for days, but the winds are just not cooperating. Light rain and onshore slop are the story, especially early on. It’s a pretty bleak run of “poor surf conditions” all the way through, but I’ll walk you through the best I can see.

The Overall Picture
Horseneck Beach is a beginner-friendly sandbar that’s fairly consistent, but it really needs a clean offshore wind from the NNW and a decent push of SE swell. That’s just not happening. The water temp on Monday the 6th is a wild 72°, which is about 5° warmer than average—unusually warm for July, so at least the water feels like a bath. But the waves? Tiny, short-period windswell with onshore winds. It’s a bust.

Monday, July 6th
We start off with 2 ft of SE swell at a period of just 4 seconds. That’s basically no energy (16 combined). It’s light rain with a SE wind straight onshore. Wind state is “on” and the wave comment says it all—poor surf conditions. Afternoon is the same, just a bit more side-on from the ESE. Nothing to paddle out for.

Tuesday, July 7th
Swell bumps up a little—4 ft from the SE, period 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 127 (moderate energy). But here’s the catch: wind is 19 mph from the ENE, straight cross-shore, creating lumpy crossed-up conditions. Not clean. Morning is a bit bigger, afternoon drops back to 2 ft. Still poor.

Wednesday, July 8th – Saturday, July 11th
This stretch is tiny. We’re looking at 1 ft to 2 ft swell. The standout moment is Friday morning, July 10th, when the swell is 2 ft from the SSW with a gentle cross-shore breeze, but the period is only 5 seconds. It’s clean but knee-high. Not worth paddling out for. Saturday the 11th gives us light 2 ft from the S with a cross-offshore NE wind at 12 mph, so it’s clean, but there’s just no power. Crowds are possible here on weekends, but honestly, nobody’s going to be out for this.

Sunday, July 12th – Wednesday, July 15th
Another small run. On Wednesday the 15th, we get the biggest bump of the whole window: 4 ft from the SSW in the afternoon, period 6 seconds. Combined energy hits 138 (moderate). But it comes with a 12 mph cross-onshore wind from the SSW, so it’ll be choppy and wind-affected. Not clean. If you’re desperate, you could find a lumpy chest-high wave, but it’s not a standout.

Thursday, July 16th – Sunday, July 19th
Still small, mostly 2 ft to 3 ft. Friday the 17th morning has a brief moment of glassy conditions with a light S wind at 3 mph, but the swell is only 2 ft. The mixed swell direction isn’t optimum. Sunday the 19th morning is flat calm winds again, but the swell is tiny.

Monday, July 20th – Tuesday, July 21st
The last days are a washout. On Tuesday the 21st, we get a 25-31 mph NE wind. That’s a near gale. The swell is only 1 ft. Clean, sure, but completely flat and blown out. No surf to speak of.

The Verdict
Look, there’s not one true standout in this whole 16-day window. The closest to a window is Wednesday afternoon, July 15th, when we get a bit of size (4 ft) and moderate energy (138 combined), but the onshore wind kills it. If you have to go, that’s your best shot, but expect a lumpy, wind-affected session. Otherwise, it’s a long stretch of small, choppy, or clean-but-tiny waves. Not much to get excited about. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d keep the board in the car.

Rusty

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