Hanna Park/Mayport Poles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight about it – the surf forecast for the next couple of weeks ain't exactly setting the world on fire. We've got a long stretch of small, weak conditions to work through before anything remotely interesting shows up.

Right now, and for the next several days, we are looking at very small surf. Nothing doing. The water temp is sitting around 84°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year at Hanna Park/Mayport Poles, so at least the water’s warm if you just want a float.

We’ve got a real quiet spell from today, Saturday the 12th, all the way through to the end of the week. The swell is tiny, mostly under three feet, and the energy is weak – you're seeing combined energy values barely getting out of the twenties and thirties. For example, Sunday morning the 13th has glassy conditions with a light offshore wind, but only 1ft of swell with a combined energy of just 28 (weak). It's clean but there's nothing to ride.

The wind gets into it a bit through the middle of the week – on Tuesday the 15th we see a jump to 5ft in the afternoon, but that’s a short-period 6-second windswell from the NE with a cross-onshore wind at 16 mph. The combined energy hits a moderate 127, but the quality is poor. It’s choppy and lumpy. This stretch of poor surf continues right through to the morning of Wednesday the 23rd. There are some glassy mornings here and there (like the 18th and 19th), but the swell just isn't there. You're looking at 1ft to 2ft of weak energy the whole time.

Now, here is the one standout worth talking about, but it’s a long way out. On Thursday the 24th of September, we’ve got a pulse of swell that looks promising. The morning shows 7ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps right up to 493 – that is strong energy. The afternoon picks up even more: 7ft from the ENE, same period, and a combined energy of 628. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole outlook, but there is a major caveat: the wind is ripping out of the NE at 16 to 19 mph, cross-onshore, making it lumpy and choppy. At 7ft, this is expert territory and the wind is going to make it messy. The good news is the swell direction (ENE) matches the NNE optimum for Hanna Park well enough to push in, but that wind is a killer for quality.

The following days, Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th, still have decent swell (5ft to 5ft) with moderate to strong energy (300-492), but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore and fresh. Saturday the 26th sees a very long period of 12 seconds in the morning, and 11 seconds in the afternoon. That's proper groundswell, which is great for power and shape, but at a beach break like Hanna Park, long-period swells can tend to close out or be a bit straight. And with the onshore wind, it's going to be a battle.

So if you’re a beginner, you’re out of luck for the whole 16 days. For everyone else, the only window that has any real size and energy is from the 24th to the 26th, but the wind will likely ruin it. This setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on those windy, choppy days. It’s a long blank run, but that’s not unusual for this area.

Rusty.

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