Surf Forecasts:
Freshwater east surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 10s period, W swell with 414 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Freshwater east this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Freshwater east in the next 16 days are 1.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 17) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (BST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 5ft (1.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Freshwater east over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let me be straight with you. Looking at the data for Freshwater East, this is a tough run. The file shows a long stretch of what I’d call poor surf, and the recommendations are a zero across the board for the whole sixteen days. That’s a blank run, plain and simple. For a spot like this, which is very sheltered and rarely breaks, these gaps aren't unusual. It tends to take a very specific setup to get any kind of rideable wave here, and the forecast just doesn't line up.
We start off on Monday the 14th with a 4ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is a messy cross-off from the SW at 12 mph. The combined energy is moderate (233), but it’s just not coming together – the file says poor surf conditions. Tuesday the 15th actually has a bit more size, 6ft from the W, and a proper offshore wind from the WNW at 22 mph, which would make it clean. But the period is a short 7 seconds, and it's still rated as poor. That combo of size and offshore might get the heart racing, but the wave quality just isn't there for a paddle.
The pattern continues right through to the end of September. We see several days with offshore winds, like Wednesday the 16th with a 4ft W swell (10-second period, moderate energy of 240) and Thursday the 17th with 6ft from the W again. But again, the file consistently calls it poor. There’s a moment on Monday the 21st where it goes glassy with a 2ft swell, and on Wednesday the 23rd it’s glassy again with a 2ft swell. It’s clean, but there’s just no energy to work with – the combined energy is only 45 and 78 respectively. You’d be bobbing around on a lake.
The second week is more of the same. Thursday the 24th offers a glassy 3ft swell, and Friday the 25th has glassy conditions with a 2ft swell, but it’s all poor surf. The very end of the period, around the 28th and 29th, shows a bump in size with 5ft to 6ft swells from the east, but the wind is onshore and strong, 19-22 mph, making it lumpy and unrideable for a traditional surfboard. That setup with significant swell, poor quality, and strong wind might be more interesting for the kite crew than for us.
So, what’s the call? There are no standout days here. The best on offer are those glassy mornings with tiny swell, but they're not surfable. This is a time to find something else to do, check the charts in a few days, and hope the next system lines up better for this sheltered corner.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 18°C on Mon morning, min 13°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat morning, min 14°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 9 | WSW 8 | W 12 | W 7 | W 7 | W 7 | W 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 5 | W 7 | W 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 8 | WSW 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 227 | 177 | 3 | 302 | 278 | 144 | 240 | 173 | 0 | 270 | 218 | 191 | 181 | 136 | 213 | 177 | 172 | 133 | 93 | 113 | 55 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 9:06PM7.84m | 9:23AM7.55m | 9:40PM7.36m | 9:56AM7.09m | 10:14PM6.78m | 10:31AM6.54m | 10:51PM6.17m | 11:11AM5.96m | 11:37PM5.57m | 12:04PM5.42m | 00:44AM5.08m | 1:30PM5.07m | 2:29AM4.93m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:57PM0.30m | 3:14AM0.51m | 3:29PM0.67m | 3:45AM0.97m | 4:02PM1.16m | 4:17AM1.51m | 4:37PM1.72m | 4:54AM2.08m | 5:19PM2.30m | 5:42AM2.62m | 6:23PM2.82m | 7:02AM3.04m | 8:11PM3.05m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | |  | |
 | 6:50 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — |
 | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:32 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:25 | — | — | 7:22 | — |
mm | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 18 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
Feels °C | 17 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | W 12 | — | — | WSW 8 | W 10 | WSW 10 | — | W 10 | W 10 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | S 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 9 | WSW 7 | WSW 8 | WSW 7 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | — | 94 | 240 | 173 | — | 17 | 31 | 191 | 181 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 93 | 113 | 55 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | W 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 9 | S 12 | — | SW 16 | S 12 | S 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | W 15 | W 14 |
| kJ | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45 | 3 | — | 10 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 17 | — | — | — | — | — | W 13 | W 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 9 | WSW 8 | WSW 6 | W 7 | W 7 | W 7 | WNW 6 | W 6 | WSW 5 | W 7 | W 7 | — | — | WSW 7 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 227 | 177 | 164 | 302 | 278 | 144 | 127 | 56 | 78 | 270 | 218 | — | — | 136 | 213 | 177 | 172 | 133 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 123 | 123 | 123 | 366 | 366 | 12 | 51 | 339 | 339 | 436 | 366 | 12 | 39 | 320 | 123 | 123 | 123 | 63 | 123 | 123 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Wales - Pembrokeshire | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in United Kingdom | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Freshwater east Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Freshwater east provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Freshwater east can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Freshwater east surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Freshwater east) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Freshwater east may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Wales - Pembrokeshire? If you are looking for accommodation near Freshwater east, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Wales - Pembrokeshire, consider staying in Pembroke which is 5 km (3 miles) away. Other places in and around Wales - Pembrokeshire where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Milford Haven which is 12 km (7 miles) away, Fishguard, Carmarthen and Aberporth.
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