Flagler Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about Flagler Pier. Looking at the whole 16-day window, I gotta tell you, it’s a tough stretch. We’re staring down a long, quiet run with very little to get excited about. The first week is basically a write-off, and the second week doesn’t offer much hope either. There’s a real gap in any meaningful surf for the first several days, and it never really shakes out of that funk.

The Overall Pattern

We’re stuck in a pattern of tiny, weak swell. The energy is pathetic, barely registering with combined swell energy values mostly in the two-digit range, which is way below 100 – that’s weak, gutless stuff. The swell direction is all over the place from the SE and ESE, which is a fine direction for the pier, but it’s just too small and short-period to do anything. The period is mostly 5 to 8 seconds, which is just windswell chop. It’s going to be a battle of the onshore breezes, and frankly, most of these days look like a waste of time for a paddle surfer.

Monday, July 20th – Thursday, July 24th

Monday morning, we have a tiny 2 ft SE swell, but it’s a cross-off wind from the SSE. It’s just not enough push. The energy is a measly 20, and the period is a short 5 seconds. This is not surfable. The rest of the week is a cruel joke. Tuesday brings a 3 ft swell, but it’s accompanied by a fresh SE breeze that turns it into a choppy, lumpy mess. Wednesday and Thursday are even worse, with the swell dropping back to 1.0 ft to 3 ft and the wind staying cross or cross-shore. The water temp is a warm 83°, but that’s about the only positive. There’s a brief moment on Friday morning, July 24th, with 2 ft of E swell and glassy conditions from a SSW breeze. It’ll be clean, but it’s just too small to ride. The energy is only 32. It’s a tease.

Friday, July 25th – Thursday, July 31st

Saturday morning, July 25th, is clean with a light cross-off breeze, but the swell is a pathetic 2 ft on an 8-second period. You’re just floating out there. Sunday and Monday are more of the same: tiny swell and onshore winds. There’s a flicker of hope on Monday afternoon, July 27th, when we get a 3 ft swell from the ESE with a clean offshore wind from the SSW. The energy finally breaks into triple digits at 101, which is moderate. It’s the best we’ll see, but it’s a far cry from good. The period is still a short 8 seconds. Tuesday through Thursday, July 28th-30th, the wind is offshore but the swell is tiny, dropping to 1.0 ft to 2 ft. The energy is pathetic again. Friday, July 31st, has a glassy morning with 2 ft of ESE swell, but the afternoon brings a 2 ft ESE swell with a 10-second period and a moderate cross-shore breeze. The energy jumps to 142, which is moderate, but the cross-shore wind will mess it up. It’s another almost-there moment.

The Final Week (August 1st – August 4th)

The second week looks even more cooked. The first day of August promises a clear morning with 2 ft of E swell and a 9-second period, but the wind is cross-shore. The energy is a weak 39. From Sunday, August 2nd, through Tuesday, August 4th, it’s a relentless onslaught of onshore winds from the ESE and E, with the swell constantly under 2 ft and the period dropping back to 5 or 8 seconds. The energy stays in the double digits, weak and disorganized. There’s nothing to recommend here.

The Verdict

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, the only standout is the Monday afternoon, July 27th, at Flagler Pier. Even then, it’s a stretch. The 3 ft ESE swell with the clean offshore wind is the best combo we’ve got. The crowd at Flagler Pier is often busy, and with a spot that’s fairly consistent, it’ll have people on it. But the swell is small and the period is short, so it’s going to be a grovel session. If you’re desperate, that’s the time to go. The rest of the time, you’re better off leaving the board in the car. This setup, with the persistent onshore wind and gutless swell, frankly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Don’t get your hopes up, folks.

Rusty.

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