Flagler Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let's break down what Flagler Pier is serving up over the next couple of weeks, and I've got to level with you—it's mostly a slow, frustrating stretch before one real wild card shows up way out.

For the first ten days or so, from Saturday the 12th through Monday the 21st, it's pretty darn bleak. We're talking ankle-to-knee high dribble, with wave heights mostly hanging around 1ft to 2ft. The combined swell energy is weak, barely creeping into double digits or sitting in the 20s and 30s. You'll catch a few glassy windows on the Sunday 13th and Monday 14th mornings with a light offshore breeze, but even then the waves are just too small to bother suiting up for. It's over a week of flatness with nothing to get excited about.

Now, things start to stir a little around Wednesday the 16th. The swell bumps up to about 5ft, but it's short-period windswell at 7 seconds and the wind is howling onshore at 15 mph from the ENE. Combined energy climbs to moderate levels (226 to 244), but that onshore breeze is trashing any hope of clean waves. That energy hangs around for a few days, but it's always paired with choppy, cross-onshore slop or straight onshore wind. This kind of setup would be more fun for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then we hit Tuesday the 22nd. Swell builds to about 6ft in the morning and 7ft in the afternoon, with combined energy jumping to 245 and then a solid 531. It's still short period (6-8 seconds) and the wind is messy—cross and cross-onshore. Again, not a good option for a paddle.

But hold onto your board, because Wednesday the 23rd is the one that gets my blood pumping. The morning session shows a solid 10ft swell from the ENE with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 1544—that's very strong wave energy. Now, the forecast note says it's predicted to be too big for this break, and with a 10ft groundswell and onshore wind from the NE at 9 mph, this is strictly for experts only. The swell direction from the ENE is a good match for the break's optimum NE direction. If you're an experienced local who knows how Flagler Pier handles a big east-nor'easter, this could be a proper standout, but it's a wildcard and not for the faint-hearted. It's a long way out, so some uncertainty is in play, but definitely keep an eye on it.

After that, Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th still have size (about 6ft down to 4ft) but the wind stays onshore and the quality drops right off.

So, the straight talk for Flagler Pier: there's one true standout on Wednesday morning the 23rd, but it's a beast of a swell and not for everyone. For the rest of the 16-day window, the surf is either flat or blown out. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Stay patient, and if that 23rd holds up, be ready.

Rusty

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