Embare Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a good look at what’s coming our way for Embare over the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a pretty grim run for the most part. We’ve got a long, dry stretch of poor conditions before we finally see a glimmer of something worthwhile. The first real surf to even think about paddling out for doesn’t arrive until Monday the 17th, so that’s over a week of waiting.

The overall pattern is dominated by onshore and cross-onshore winds, with a lot of light rain and cloudy skies. The wave energy is generally weak to moderate. For the first few days, the swell is tiny and messy. Saturday the 8th of August sees a slight bump in the morning with a 3ft S swell at 10 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. That’s the cleanest it’ll be for a while, but the combined energy is only 191, so it’s weak. The afternoon swell jumps to 5ft from the SSE with a 16-second period, which is a proper long-period groundswell, and the energy hits 1162 – that’s strong. But it’s cross-onshore, so it’ll be choppy and messy. Not worth getting excited about.

From Sunday the 9th right through to Saturday the 16th, it’s a write-off. The swell hangs around 3ft to 5ft, but the wind is always onshore or cross-onshore, with rain and light to moderate breezes. The break is sheltered, so it doesn’t grab much energy anyway, and the scores are all zeros. It’s just poor surf conditions.

Now, the standout. Monday the 17th of August. The morning is your best bet. We’ve got 5ft swell from the E with a short period of 7 seconds. The key here is the wind is glassy – dead calm. The combined energy is 419, so moderate, but for a sheltered spot like Embare, that’s a decent amount of push. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual. It’s a consistent break, and the swell direction from the E is a bit off the optimum S, but the total calm makes it the cleanest session in the whole forecast. Just be aware, with a short period, the waves will be a bit crumbly and less powerful. It’s the only time the score gets a 2-out-of-10 mention for good surf. After that, it’s back to average or poor.

The rest of the week into the 22nd is mostly small, weak, and messy again. Tuesday the 18th has 3ft, but it’s cross-onshore. Wednesday the 19th drops to 2ft and glassy again, but the energy is only 77 – very weak. A couple of mornings on the 21st and 22nd have glassy conditions with small 2-2ft SE swells, giving surfable but ordinary waves with energy around 165-214. Those are your only other half-decent paddles, but they’re nothing special.

So, to sum it up: if you’re desperate for a wave, save your energy for the morning of Monday the 17th. It’s the only standout. The rest of the 16 days is a long stretch of flat to poor, so don’t hold your breath. The fact that this spot is consistent means it won’t stay this bad forever, but this forecast is a real test of patience.

Rusty.

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