El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day forecast for El Roque is a tough one. We’ve got swell, but the conditions are just not playing ball. The wind is almost always on it or cross-on, which means the surface is going to be messy, and the period is short, mostly around 7 seconds, so the waves will be weak and crumbly. For a spot that’s a reef, that’s a real shame. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

We kick off on Thursday, the 6th of August. The morning sees some clouds with a NNE breeze at 9 mph blowing straight onshore. Swell is 6 ft from the NE, but with a short period of 7 seconds, the combined energy is moderate at 390. It’s what we call poor surf conditions. The afternoon doesn’t get any better – wind picks up to 12 mph, cross-on, and the swell stays the same. The water is chopped up.

Friday the 7th is more of the same. Clear skies, but the wind is on it from the N at 9 mph in the morning, 12 mph in the afternoon. Swell drops a touch to 5 ft, but the period is still 7 seconds (energy 339). It’s poor.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th: clear skies, but a persistent onshore wind from the NNW and N at 12 mph. Swell hangs around 6 ft, period 7-8 seconds (energy in the 300s). Just no good.

Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th – the wind gets stronger. 16 mph from the N and NNE, onshore and cross-on. Swell peaks at 7 ft on Tuesday morning (energy 401), but with that wind and short period, it’s a messy, blown-out situation. The 7 ft is pushing into the size that’s only for strong paddlers, but with the chop, it’s not even fun for them.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th: a brief lightening of the wind to 9 mph, but it’s still onshore. Friday the 14th sees the swell bump back up to 7 ft (energy 456), but it’s still from the NNE with a 7-second period and onshore wind. Poor.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th: more of the same. The swell stays around 7 ft, period 8 seconds, with energy climbing into the high 400s. The wind is onshore from the N and NNE. On Sunday the 16th, the wind drops to 6 mph, but it’s still cross-on, so the surface is just light cross-onshore ripples.

The second week remains a washout. From Monday the 17th onward, the swell slowly drops. Monday the 17th has 6 ft swell (energy 348), Tuesday the 18th has 5 ft (energy 243), and by Wednesday the 19th it’s down to 4 ft (energy 150). The wind is mostly onshore or cross-on at 12-16 mph. The period is still short, 7-9 seconds.

There is a slight change on Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st. The swell direction shifts to the N, and the period stretches to 9-10 seconds. On Friday the 21st, the swell is 5 ft with a 10-second period, giving a combined energy of 434 – but the wind is still cross-on from the NNE at 9 mph. It’s a bit more promising for energy, but the wind is still going to mess it up. The longer period (10 seconds) is a groundswell, which can be better for the reef, but the cross-on wind will kill the face.

There are no standout days here. Honestly, the entire 16-day window is a write-off. The wind is relentless and onshore, and the short-period swell makes for weak, choppy waves. If you’re a kite surfer, that 7 ft swell with strong onshore wind might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass. El Roque is a reef that needs the right conditions, and this ain’t it.

Rusty.

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