El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Honestly, this is a tough one to call. The whole 16-day window is a real mixed bag of medium to strong swell, but the wind and conditions are just not cooperating. The problem is that while we’ve got a decent amount of swell on the way, it’s nearly always accompanied by a cross-onshore or onshore breeze, which is keeping the surf poor.

The first real opportunity comes Friday, July 17th, at El Roque. But even that’s a tough start. The swell is from the NE at 5 ft, with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined energy is weak (161). The moderate cross-onshore wind from the NE at 12 mph is making it choppy and messy. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 74°. Not a day to get excited about.

We go through a stretch of poor surf. Saturday July 18th and Sunday July 19th are the same story: cross-onshore wind, short-period swell, and poor surf conditions. The swell picks up a bit Sunday to 6 ft, and the energy climbs to moderate (262-301), but the wind is still ruining it. From Monday July 20th through to Thursday July 24th, the wind switches to onshore, the swell holds around 7 ft, and the energy is moderate to strong (up to 515). But the “poor surf conditions” tag is a constant. You’d be better off with a kite than a paddle.

Then we hit the weekend of July 25th and 26th. Saturday July 25th sees 7 ft to 8 ft NE swell with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is strong (603-686). But still onshore wind. Sunday July 26th is the biggest of the run. Swell hits 10 ft, period 9 seconds, and the energy is very strong (1376-1615). That’s a serious amount of water moving, but it’s still onshore wind. For a reef break, that much swell with onshore wind is going to be a messy, dangerous closeout. Only for experts, and even then, it’s not worth it.

The last week of July and into August 1st, the swell drops back to 7 ft, period 8 seconds, and the energy is moderate. The wind is still onshore or cross-onshore. The only day that gets a rating higher than zero is Tuesday July 28th afternoon. The swell is 7 ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds, and the wind is a gentle cross-onshore at 9 mph. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s a 1 out of 10. That’s the best on offer, and it’s still not good.

So, plain and simple: there are no standout days in this 16-day window. The whole period is a write-off for decent surf. The swell is there, but the wind is never right. Don’t bother paddling out. This is a classic case of the forecast looking promising for a few days, but the reality is a whole lot of nothing. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a blank run.

Rusty.

Read more