El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m looking at the forecast for the next couple of weeks, and honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch. The only spot on the cards is El Roque, a reef break that’s fairly consistent and handles a north-northwest swell best. But don’t get your hopes up too high just yet.

The water’s sitting at 76°F with a touch warmer than normal anomaly, so it’s a little on the balmy side for this time of year, but nothing too wild.

Now, the whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for quality surf. There’s a good run of swell coming through, but the wind is just not playing ball. From Saturday 29 August right through to Sunday 13 September, every single session is marked as poor surf conditions. The swell energy is moderate at best, with the biggest spike hitting around 665 (moderate energy) on Wednesday 2 September, but that’s with a 16 mph onshore wind turning it into a mess. You’ll see the swell height touch 7 ft on the 2nd, pushing into expert-only territory, but with that wind, it’s just a lumpy, choppy nightmare.

The early days, from the 29th to the 31st, have cross-on winds at 12 mph, mixing up the 3 ft to 5 ft swell with a short period of 7 to 11 seconds, creating moderate cross-onshore chop. Even the days with onshore wind, like the 1st to the 3rd of September, are still plagued by poor conditions. The swell does get a bit more consistent and the energy ticks up on the 2nd and 3rd, but the wind is just too strong and from the wrong direction.

From the 5th onwards, the swell drops off and the period gets real short, down to 6 seconds, which is just weak, choppy wind swell. The energy dips to 150 (weak energy) on the 6th, and it stays pretty flat and messy through to the 13th. There’s a slight pickup on the 12th with 6 ft swell and moderate energy (424-426), but it’s still cross-on and choppy.

Honestly, this is a stretch where you’re better off just watching the forecast, maybe taking a break, or if you’re really desperate and the wind shifts, you might get a sloppy session on the 2nd or 3rd when the swell is biggest, but it’s definitely not for beginners. For most of us, it’s a blank run, and that’s just how it goes here sometimes. The setup doesn’t look great for paddle surfing, but if you’re into kite surfing, the bigger, windier days might be more your thing.

Keep an eye on the 13th; the swell period bumps up to 9 seconds and the wind is onshore, so if the models change, that could be a glimmer of hope. But for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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