El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at El Roque for the next couple of weeks. I’m going to be honest, it’s a grim picture. The whole 16-day stretch is a tough one, with no real standout sessions. The wind is the main problem, blowing from the NNE for nearly the whole time, which is side-on or onshore for this spot. The water is a touch warmer than usual at 25°, so at least you’ll be comfortable while you’re getting frustrated.

We start on Monday the 24th of August. There’s some size, with a 6ft swell from the NNW and a 12-second period, shoving a moderate combined wave energy of 985, but the 12 mph cross-on wind from the NNE has it all chopped up and messy. It’s rated as poor surf conditions, and honestly, it looks like a waste of time. This same crummy pattern hangs around all week. By Wednesday the 26th, the swell drops to 3ft with a short 9-second period and energy down to 171, still with that onshore wind. Not worth a look.

The weekend of the 29th and 30th sees a slight bump in period, with a 5ft to 6ft N swell hitting 11 seconds on Saturday, giving energy values of 797 and 701. But again, that 12 mph cross-on wind from the NNE keeps it lumpy and uninviting. The wave state is described as “moderate cross-onshore and choppy” – it’s going to be a frustrating paddle for a few close-outs.

As we roll into the first few days of September, the swell picks up a bit. On Wednesday the 2nd of September, we’re looking at a 7ft swell from the NNE with an 8-second period, and a combined energy of 589. That’s a lot of water, but the period is short, and the wind is still on it. Over 8ft, this is getting into expert-only territory, and the conditions won't do it any favours. The following week looks similar – a 6ft to 6ft NNE swell with short periods and persistent onshore or cross-on winds. It’s big but ugly.

Now, there is one tiny glimmer. On Monday the 7th of September, we see a quick shift in the swell direction to the NW with a period of 18 seconds and a combined energy of 1165. That’s a powerful, long-period groundswell. The catch? The swell height is only 3ft, and the wind is still cross-on. It’s labelled as “marginal” with a score of 1 out of 10. The waves could be clean and lined up if the wind ever dropped, but with a 12 mph cross-on breeze, it’ll be a frustrating tease. That long period (over 15 seconds) is a trait of a groundswell that will wrap in nicely, but at a beach-and-reef setup like this, it might break a bit too straight if it holds together.

The honest truth is, there’s nothing here I’d recommend you chase. The entire outlook is a write-off for quality surfing. The wind is consistently poor, and the swell is either too small, too short-period, or too blown out. For the first week, it’s a washout, and the second week offers more of the same with a bit more size but no quality. This is a classic example of a blank run for this area. Sometimes the forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty, signing off.

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