El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for El Roque. Gotta be straight with you – this stretch of the forecast is a bit of a test of patience. The swell is there, but the quality is going to keep us honest for quite a while. We’re looking at a long, dry spell of poor conditions before anything worth paddling out for shows up, so don’t be in a rush.

We kick off on Friday, 3rd July with a bit of a tease. The water’s sitting at a comfortable 72°, which is pretty much bang on for the time of year – nothing unusual there. You’ve got a 5ft swell from the north with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at 388. But here’s the kicker: the commentary on this one is already calling it marginal due to tide, and it’s a score of just 1. That’s not a green light.

From Saturday the 4th all the way through to Wednesday the 15th, the story is grim. Morning after morning and afternoon after afternoon, the forecast is littered with “poor surf conditions.” We’re looking at a solid two-week stretch where the scores are all zeros and ones. The swell heights bounce around from 2ft to 5ft, and the period stays short – mostly 5 to 8 seconds, which is just weak, wind-driven junk. The wind is almost always onshore, light to moderate breeze out of the N, NNE, or NNW, so it’s never clean. The combined energy does climb into the moderate range a few times – like on Tuesday the 14th we see 490, and Wednesday the 15th hits 524 – but the wind and the short period mean it’s just messy, choppy water. No fun for a surfer.

Honestly, for most of this run, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. Beach breaks with onshore wind and that kind of lumpy energy are just not our game.

Now, there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. Thursday the 16th of July is where we might start to see something change. The swell builds to 5ft from the north with the period finally stretching to 10 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell pulse. The combined energy is a solid 377. The wind is still cross-onshore in the afternoon, but there’s a chance the morning could be cleaner. Friday the 17th looks similar, with 4ft N swell at 8 seconds – energy at 173 – and the wind switching to onshore again, but the swell direction is good, matching the optimum NNW for the break.

If I had to pick one or two brief windows to keep an eye on, it’s Thursday morning the 16th and Friday morning the 17th. The swell is coming from the north, period is improving, and if that wind lays off, El Roque could turn on. But I’m not getting excited yet – these are still in the second week, so file them as promising but uncertain. The crowds at El Roque can pop up sometimes, so if it does clean up, don’t expect to have it to yourself.

Bottom line: there’s no rush. The first week and a half is a write-off for quality surfing. Hang tight, watch the wind, and maybe pencil in that Thursday or Friday in the second week for a look-see. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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