El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a grind for El Roque. We’ve got a solid run of north-northeast swell rolling in, but the wind is a constant problem. It’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, blowing at 12 to 16 mph, and that’s just chopping everything up. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least that’s not a drama.

Starting Saturday the 18th through to the 24th, the swell is there, but it’s messy. We’re looking at 5ft to 7ft of short-period NNE swell, around 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate, climbing from 178 up to 510. But with that wind, it’s just poor. Not worth paddling out for.

The real gut punch comes on Monday the 27th of July. The swell jumps to a solid 10ft from the NNE, with a period of 9 seconds and combined energy hitting a very strong 1383 to 1514. That’s a lot of water moving. But it’s just too big for this reef break. The forecast even says it’s too big for the spot. Unless you’re a total expert, stay out of the water that day.

Now, there is a flicker of hope. On Tuesday morning, the 28th of July, the wind finally swings to a gentle cross-onshore from the NNW at 9 mph. The swell is still a massive 10ft, but the conditions are cleaner. That’s the only time in the whole 16-day window that the wind and tide line up, and the wave comment says “wind and tide favorable.” But again, that 10ft is a lot of ocean for a reef. It’s the best on offer, but it’s only for the experienced crew.

After that, the swell drops back to 6ft to 7ft through the end of July and into early August, but the wind is still mostly onshore. The last few days, from the 1st of August, we get some lighter breezes, even a touch of offshore from the east on the 1st, but the swell is marginal and the energy is moderate. It’s not really a standout.

So, here’s the bottom line: the only real window where you could get a wave is Tuesday morning, the 28th of July. It’s big, it’s a reef, and it’s for experts only. The rest of the time, it’s either blown out or too big. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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