El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, it’s going to be a tough stretch. Don’t get your hopes up too high just yet.

Right now, looking at El Roque, the water’s sitting at about 75°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. The outlook starts with a real flat spell. We’re looking at nothing doing on the surf front for the first week, basically from Sunday the 16th right through to the end of next week. That’s a solid run of days with no real surf to get excited about. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore from the N or NNE, the swell is tiny—around the 3ft to 4ft mark—and the period is short, mostly 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is in the 100s (like 177 to 270), which is weak. The forecast has "poor surf conditions" stamped all over it, so honestly, don’t bother paddling out.

We finally see a bit of a pulse rolling in around Tuesday the 25th. The swell lifts up a notch, hitting 4ft to 7ft, with a much longer period of 11 seconds—that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps into the 600s and 800s (652 and 867), so there’s some moderate juice in the water. The catch? The wind is cross-onshore from the NE and NNE, which will mess up the face. The forecast still calls it "marginal" at best.

That pulse continues Wednesday the 26th, with 7ft swell from the NNE. This is getting into that size that’s more for experienced surfers, as it’s over 5ft. The wind looks a bit better in the morning with a light onshore breeze, but still not glassy. Combined energy is strong (631). But again, it’s rated as marginal or poor surf conditions because of the wind chop.

If there’s a standout—and I’m scraping the barrel here—the best bet might be the morning of Tuesday the 25th or the morning of Wednesday the 26th. Tuesday the 25th has that nice long 11-second period, which will give the waves some shape, but remember at a beach-break setup, a long period swell can make things a bit straight. The 7ft on the 26th has a bit more grunt, but the period drops back to 8 seconds. Neither is perfect.

After that pulse, the swell slowly fades through the end of the month back into the doldrums—4ft to 6ft, weak energy (in the 100s to 300s), and the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore. Not much to get excited about. This is a quiet period for the area, and the lack of consistency in the forecast reflects how it tends to go blank for stretches.

Keep the board in the car, but don’t rush. The forecasts can always change for the better.

That’s all I’ve got.

Rusty.

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