El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu down at El Roque.

Right now, and for a solid stretch, the outlook is a tough one. Honestly, we’ve got a long dry spell. From the start of the forecast right through to the end of the second week, the conditions are just not playing ball. The wind is mostly onshore, the swell is weak and short-period, and the quality is poor. You’ll be looking at a gap of almost two full weeks before anything even remotely interesting happens.

The water temp is sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 76°, which is a bit above average but nothing crazy.

There is one standout, but it’s a long way off. On the morning of September 15th, we finally get a pulse of proper groundswell. A long-period swell rolls in from the NNW with a 16 second period. The combined energy jumps to 568 (moderate energy), and the wave height is around 3 ft. The wind will be a gentle cross-onshore, so it won’t be glassy, but the long period will give the waves some shape and power. This is a reef break that likes that NNW direction, matching the optimum swell direction. The big caveat here: that long-period groundswell can make it break a bit too straight on a reef, but it’s still the best wave on offer. Expect crowds to be possible.

A second, slightly more energetic option shows up that same Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. On the 15th afternoon, the swell height nudges up to 4 ft from the NNW with a 13 second period, and a combined energy of 822 (moderate to strong). The morning of the 16th still has some run in it at 4 ft with a 13 second period and 631 energy. Still that gentle cross-onshore wind, but for a beautiful, clear day on a reef, it’s as good as it gets in this window. If the wind lightens up, it could be magic.

Before that, from the beginning of September all the way through the 14th, every slot is poor. Onshore winds, short-period slop, and energy levels that barely tick over. It’s a proper blank run. For this area, that’s the reality check – long periods of nothing.

So, the plan: wait it out. Focus on that 15th of September window. That’s your shot, even if it’s promising rather than a guarantee. Anything else this side of two weeks is a kite-surfing affair, not a paddling one.

Rusty.

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