El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks is a tough one. We’ve got a solid run of surf on the horizon, but the conditions are going to test your patience. The biggest issue is that while we’ll see some decent swell, the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave period is short, so the quality is just not there. It’s a real shame, because the swell energy is there, but it’s going to be chopped up and messy.

Let’s start with the only spot we’re looking at: El Roque. This is a reef break, fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the north-northwest, so it’s in the firing line. The water temperature is sitting at 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – you’ll notice it.

The first real action kicks off on Friday, August 14th, in the afternoon. It’s a clear day, but a moderate breeze from the NE at 12 mph is making it cross-onshore. The swell is 6 ft from the NNE with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined swell energy is weak at 342. It’s poor surf conditions, choppy and messy. Not worth paddling out for.

This pattern continues right through the weekend and into the next week. Saturday and Sunday see similar swell sizes (4 ft to 5 ft) with the same NNE direction and short period. The wind is onshore, but the speeds are lighter on Sunday (6–9 mph), which is a tiny bit better, but the waves are still poor. The energy levels are weak, ranging from 170 to 202.

We roll into the week of August 17th to the 21st, and it’s more of the same story. Swell holds around 3 ft to 5 ft, still short period (6–9 seconds), and the wind is onshore from the north mostly. The energy is still weak, staying under 230. There’s a slight reprieve on the morning of Tuesday, the 18th, with a light breeze, but it’s still cross-on and the waves are poor. On Thursday the 20th, the swell drops to just 2 ft in the morning.

Then, from Saturday, August 22nd, the swell picks up. We see 5 ft on Saturday, building to 6 ft on Sunday, and then jumping to 7 ft by Monday the 24th. The energy is also climbing, hitting moderate levels of 368 on the 23rd and then strong levels of 644 on the 24th. This is where it gets interesting in size, but the wind is still cross-onshore from the NE or NNE at 12–16 mph, and the period is still short at 7–8 seconds. The wave comment is still “poor surf conditions” because it’s choppy.

This stronger swell, with wind on it and short period, makes for a rough, bumpy ocean. The waves will be powerful but not well shaped. At 7 ft, this is getting into the realm of experts only, and with the poor conditions, it’s not a great look. The energy is strong, but the quality is low.

We see this messy, moderate-to-strong energy run continue through the end of August, with swell staying between 5 ft and 7 ft, and the period staying short. The wind is always onshore or cross-onshore. The last few days of the month, from the 26th to the 29th, the swell gradually drops back down from 7 ft to 5 ft, and the energy eases.

So, the bottom line: there’s surf, but it’s not good surf. The short period and constant onshore wind mean it’s going to be a ragged, choppy mess. Don’t get your hopes up for clean waves. This is one of those periods where you might be better off waiting for a change in the forecast. If you’re a real die-hard, you might find something rideable in the lulls, but it’s going to be a battle.

Rusty.

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