El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers. Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for El Roque is a tough one to write. We’ve got a 16-day window on the table, but it’s mostly a story of missed opportunities. The wind is almost never our friend, and that NNE direction just keeps slamming into us, creating messy, onshore conditions for days on end.

Right now, through the end of July and into the first week of August, it’s a real struggle. We’ve got a solid 8ft swell from the NNE on Saturday the 25th, with an 8-second period. That’s a decent amount of water moving – the combined energy is a moderate 658, which tells you there’s push behind it. But here’s the kicker: the wind is howling from the same direction at 19 mph, making it a complete washout. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there, but you won’t be enjoying it with that chop.

The pattern just doesn’t let up. We run through day after day – Sunday, Monday, Tuesday – all with that persistent NNE wind chopping up otherwise rideable swell. The size drops slowly from 8ft down to 5ft by Tuesday the 28th, but the wind never really turns. It’s a classic case of "looks good on paper, feels awful in the water." The period stays short, mostly 8 seconds, dropping to a weak 6 seconds by the end of the week. Wave energy plummets into the double digits (134–130) by Wednesday and Thursday, which is just weak sauce.

We hit a total lull from the 29th of July through the middle of the first week of August. The swell barely cracks 5ft, and the period is short – 6 or 7 seconds. It’s a proper gap where you’re better off cleaning your board than paddling out. The only flicker of something slightly less terrible comes on Saturday the 1st of August morning, when the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the north, and the energy jumps to 224. The model calls it "marginal." It’s still only 4ft and a 6-second period, but with that light wind and a bit of north in the swell, you might get a few crumbly ones if you’re absolutely desperate. It’s a beggars-can’t-be-choosers scenario.

Then we get another dry spell until mid-week. Wednesday the 5th of August sees the swell pushing back up to 7ft with a moderate 476 energy reading. But again, the wind is cross-onshore from the NNE at 12 mph. It’s still a mess. By Thursday the 6th, the energy jumps to 719 with a 7ft swell, the period finally stretches to 8 seconds, and the wind drops to 9 mph from the NNE. That’s the closest we get to a window, but it’s still onshore and bumpy. If you’re a local who knows the reef and can handle a bit of chop, Thursday morning might offer the most push of the whole run, but it’s not clean.

The last few days, into the weekend of the 8th and 9th of August, show the same story: 6ft to 6ft swell, 8-second periods, and onshore wind. The energy sticks around 400–480, but the quality just isn’t there. With a setup like this, honestly, the wind and chop make it look more like a session for a kite than a paddle board.

There are no true standouts here. If you have to pick a window, the absolute best bet is probably Thursday the 6th of August morning – the biggest swell, longest period, and lightest onshore breeze of the whole run. But even that comes with a caveat: it’s still onshore, so it’s bumpy. Bring your patience, or maybe a kite.

Rusty, signing off.

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