El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for El Roque over the next couple of weeks. I’ve gotta be straight with you – it’s a bit of a mixed bag and the early part of the run is going to be a real struggle.

Right off the bat, the first few days look pretty ordinary. The water temp is sitting at 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re sitting out there waiting for a clean one. But for the first three or four days, the wind is just a mess. You’ve got a persistent moderate breeze from the NE and NNE, slapping the surface with a cross-on chop. The swell is coming in at 5 ft to 6 ft from the NNE, with a short, choppy period of around 6 to 7 seconds. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, ranging between 206 and 363 (moderate wave energy). These are not the kind of conditions that make a reef break like El Roque come alive. It just looks washed out, poor surf all the way through Friday and Saturday.

The wind does look like it might ease off a touch by Sunday the 30th of August, but that cross-on direction is still there. The swell drops a little on Sunday afternoon, coming from the NNW at 4 ft with a period of 9 seconds, but the energy is still moderate. It’s not until the start of September that we start seeing a more “on” wind direction, but it’s still a moderate onshore breeze from the NNE. The swell picks up on Wednesday the 2nd of September, with the swell building to 7 ft to 8 ft from the NNE, with a period of 8 seconds. That’s getting on for serious size for a spot like this, and the combined energy is pushing into the strong range at 592 to 743 (strong wave energy). That’s powerful water, but that onshore wind is going to make it lumpy and hard work. For a beginner spot, anything over 5 ft is already pushing it – this is definitely not beginner-friendly, and by 8 ft you’re looking at expert-only territory if you can handle the mess.

Things finally show a glimmer of hope further out. There’s a big gap where nothing is worth shouting about until we get to the second week. But look at the 11th and 12th of September. The swell is holding solid at 6 ft to 6 ft from the NNE and N, with the period stretching out to a nice 9 to 10 seconds. This is a proper groundswell, longer period, which means more shape and power behind the wave. The combined energy is reading 593 to 766 (strong wave energy), so there is some serious water moving. The wind is still a factor – it’s onshore or cross-on – but the swell quality is the best in the whole window. It’s a promising long-range call, but remember, it’s a long way out. El Roque is a reef break that favours an optimum swell from the NNW, and we’re getting a bit of a NNE wrap, so it won’t be absolutely perfect, but the bigger, longer period swell might just make it work.

If I had to pick a standout, I’d say keep your eyes on Saturday the 12th of September morning. The swell hits 6 ft from the N with a 10-second period and combined energy of 766 (strong wave energy). The wind is the lightest we see in that period – a gentle cross-on breeze from the NNE. That’s the best combo on offer: solid, powerful swell with lighter wind. It’s still not perfect, but it’s the best shot we have in a pretty underwhelming window. Expect it to be a bit of a zoo if the swell hits, because it’s a spot that can get crowded.

For the rest of the time, you’re honestly better off staying home. There are big gaps of several days – especially between the 2nd and the 11th – where the swell is either small, onshore, or both. It’s a blank run for the most part, which is a bit unusual for the area, but that’s the forecast we’ve got.

– Rusty

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