El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve stared at the charts for this stretch and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough run. We’ve got a solid 16 days of forecast, but the surf just doesn’t want to play ball. The first real recommendation doesn’t pop up until the 21st of July, and even then, it’s a tough sell.

The Long Wait and the Problem

Between now and the 21st, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. A big gap of silence. When the swell finally shows, it’s all coming from a tricky direction for our main spot.

El Roque (Reef)

Alright, let’s talk about the one break we’ve got on the cards: El Roque. It’s a beginner-friendly reef break, exposed to the swell, and it’s fairly consistent. But the whole forecast is a tale of “poor surf conditions.” The wind is the main villain here. From Tuesday afternoon the 21st right through to the end of the month, we’re looking at a relentless onshore or cross-onshore breeze from the NNE, blowing at 12 to 18 mph. That’s going to chop it up and make it messy.

The swell itself is there, but it’s short-period windswell – mostly 7 to 8 seconds – with moderate combined wave energy (starting at 444 on the 21st, peaking at 774 on the morning of the 26th). Heights hang around the 5 to 8 ft mark. For a beginner spot, that 8 ft is getting a bit hefty, and with that onshore wind, it’s going to be a close-out carnival. The water temperature is sitting at 73°F for the first session, which is about normal for this time of year.

The only time the wind eases up a little is around the 31st of July, dropping to a "gentle breeze" from the N at 9 mph, but by then the swell is already fading. The energy drops right off into the first week of August, with combined energy sinking to two-digit values (78, 47) and tiny 2 to 3 ft surf. It’s flat by the 5th of August.

The Verdict

Honestly, this is a blank run. There’s no standout day. The whole 16-day window is a washout. For a spot that’s usually fairly consistent, it’s a tough stretch. The combination of steady onshore winds and short-period windswell just doesn’t give us any clean, lined-up waves. If you’re desperate, the mornings of the 31st of July and 1st of August offer the lightest winds, but you’ll be fighting a fading, weak swell. It’s one of those times where you’re better off waiting for the next forecast update.

Rusty.

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