El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day stretch is a rough one for surf. There’s no clean, decent swell on the horizon for El Roque. We’re looking at a real dry spell, with the first week and a half offering almost nothing but onshore junk and cross-onshore chop. The water temp is sitting at 75°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit while you’re staring at the flatness.

Starting from Saturday the 15th, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got a weak, short-period swell coming from the NNE, about 6ft, but it’s wrapped in a cross-on wind that’s chopping everything up. The energy is weak, only around 332, and it’s just not doing anything for the reef. This trend holds through the weekend and into the start of next week. The swell drops a bit, but the wind stays annoying, mostly cross-on or on, keeping the surface messy. You’ll see some 3ft to 4ft waves, but with periods hovering around 7-8 seconds, there’s no push or shape to them.

Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th, the swell drops even further, bottoming out around 3ft on Thursday. The wind is still on it, so forget about any clean corners. The energy levels are weak, all in the low hundreds, which tells you there’s just nothing out there. It’s the kind of week where you’d be better off doing anything else.

We do see a little bump in size around Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd, with the swell pushing back up to 6ft. But don’t get excited. The period is short, around 6-7 seconds, and the wind is still cross-onshore, making it lumpy and chaotic. The combined energy is moderate, in the 300s, but it’s all surface chop, no real groundswell. This isn’t surfable for a beginner—anything over 5ft with that kind of wind is going to be a handful—and even for the experienced crew, it’s likely to be a mess.

Then, towards the end of the window, on Monday the 24th, we see the biggest swell of the period, about 7ft. The energy jumps to 660, which is strong, but again, the period is only 9 seconds, and the direction is still NNE, not the NNW that El Roque really wants. The cross-on wind is going to make it big, raw, and ugly. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty. It’ll be too big and blown out for most, and the poor quality is going to keep everyone on the beach.

After that, the swell slowly fades through the end of August, dropping back down to below 3ft by the 30th. The winds finally ease up, with some lighter offshore flows, but by then there’s nothing left to ride. We’re talking 2ft with a period of 7-8 seconds—totally gutless.

Honestly, there isn’t a single standout day in this whole forecast. The conditions are poor across the board, and even the biggest swell is ruined by bad wind and the wrong direction. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the mornings on the 28th and 29th might have the cleanest conditions with the light offshore breeze, but you’re looking at tiny, weak waves that will barely break. It’s a week and a half of nothing, then a punchy, blown-out mess. For a beach and reef setup like this, with that kind of wind and swell, the setup honestly looks more interesting for a kite surfer than for a paddle surfer. Keep the board in the car and the hopes low. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, this is a blank run.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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