El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Lookin’ over the next 16 days, and I gotta be straight with ya – it’s a tough stretch for surf at El Roque. There’s no real standout session, and the conditions are just not cooperating. The water temp is sittin’ at 74°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no worries there.

The first week is a real write-off. From Saturday the 1st of August right through to the end of the following week, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is weak and short-period. The combined wave energy is mostly in the 100-200 range (weak), which is barely enough to push a log along. The swell direction is NNE, which is about as far from the optimum NNW as you can get for this reef. It’s all poor surf, day after day.

Early on, Saturday the 1st, you’re lookin’ at 4 ft of mostly NNE swell with a period of just 7 seconds – that’s weak, choppy, and messy. The wind is blowin’ 9 mph straight onshore. Not worth paddlin’ out for. Sunday the 2nd is more of the same: 4 ft swell, 6-second period, and onshore wind. Monday the 3rd brings a little more energy with 5 ft and a 7-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s choppy. The week just drags on with similar conditions – 4 ft to 5 ft, short period, and onshore or cross-onshore wind. The combined energy starts to creep up a bit, hitting 216 on Monday morning, but it’s still weak and the wind is killin’ it.

By Friday the 7th, the swell period jumps to 9 seconds, and the morning sees 5 ft with a combined energy of 367 (moderate). The wind is still onshore at 12 mph, though. It’s a bit more push, but the quality is still poor. The afternoon drops to 2 ft. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are more of the same: 4 ft to 4 ft, period around 6-9 seconds, and onshore wind.

The second week doesn’t get much better. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is all short-period, 6-7 seconds, with weak energy. The combined energy is below 200 for most of it. Tuesday the 11th, Wednesday the 12th, and Thursday the 13th are all poor conditions with onshore and cross-onshore winds.

Now, there is a bit of a pulse later in the week. On Thursday the 13th, the swell picks up to 6 ft in the morning and 6 ft in the afternoon, with a combined energy of 304 and 400 (moderate). The wind is cross-onshore, though, so it’s messy. Friday the 14th sees 7 ft in the morning and 8 ft in the afternoon, with a combined energy of 565 and 698 (strong). The swell period is 8 seconds, so it’s still short-period. The wind is onshore in the morning and cross-onshore in the afternoon. This is gettin’ toward the size where it’s only for more experienced surfers, but the wind is foul.

Saturday the 15th is the biggest day of the forecast, with 8 ft swell in the afternoon and a combined energy of 1381 (very strong). The period is 9 seconds, which is still not long-period. The wind is onshore at 12 mph. That’s a lot of water movin’, but it’s gonna be a messy, blown-out mess. Only for the hardcore, and even then, it’s not gonna be pretty. Sunday the 16th is similar with 8 ft and strong wind.

Honestly, there’s not a single day where I’d say “go.” The wind is consistently wrong, the swell is short-period and from the wrong direction, and the quality is poor the whole time. If you’re a kiter, the stronger afternoons might look interesting, but for surfers, this is a blank run. It’s a bummer, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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