El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window for El Roque, it’s a tough watch. The forecast keeps calling it “poor surf conditions” all the way through, so we’re not getting a clean, rippable day. That first week is a write-off for any proper surfing, with nothing hitting a score worth paddling out for. There’s a long gap of over a week where the conditions just don’t stack up.

Starting off on the 30th of July through the first few days of August, we’ve got swell around 4 ft to 6 ft from the NNE, but the wind is cross-on or onshore nearly every session. That means bumpy, choppy faces. Not your friend. The combined wave energy sits between 171 and 355 (moderate energy), but it doesn't matter much when the wind is messing it up. The water temp is 74 °F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re getting frustrated.

From the 5th of August onward, the swell drops a bit, going down to 2 ft to 4 ft. The period is short, mostly 5 to 9 seconds, so it’s weak, crumbly stuff. Still cross-on or onshore winds. The energy drops into the low 100s, which is weak. Nothing to get excited about.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting but not for everyone. Around the 10th and 11th of August, we start seeing a serious spike in size. By the morning of the 11th of August, we’ve got 8 ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds. That’s pushing into expert-only territory. The combined energy jumps to 691 (strong), and by the afternoon it’s 8 ft with energy at 939 (very strong). This continues through the 12th and 13th of August, with 8 ft and 8 ft swells and energy readings in the 800s and 900s. That is a lot of water moving. Problem is, it’s still being blown by onshore winds of 12 to 16 mph. That combo of big, messy swell and onshore wind makes El Roque look more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The swell is coming from the NNE, but the optimum direction for this reef is NNW, so it’s not even hitting it right. The short period (8 seconds) means it won’t have that long, lined-up power either.

If you’re an experienced surfer hungry for size and don’t mind a battle, the early morning of the 11th of August might be your best bet, but it’s a gamble with the wind. After the 13th of August, the swell fades back down to 5 ft to 6 ft by the 14th of August, with energy dropping to 443 (moderate). Still onshore winds, still not clean.

So, the honest truth? There is no standout day here. The whole forecast is a bust for quality waves. If you’re dead set on getting wet, the biggest swell days around the 11th to 13th of August offer the most power, but be ready for a rough, onshore, choppy session that’s really only for experts. For everyone else, it’s a skip.

Rusty.

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