El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re staring down a 16-day window for the El Roque area, and honestly, it’s a long stretch of what I’d call quiet, forgettable surf. The whole period is marred by the same issue: the swell direction is coming from the NNE, which is not the optimum direction for this spot. El Roque (a reef setup) is exposed to swell, but it really wants it from the NNW to get its act together. Instead, we’ve got a persistent northerly wind almost every day, which is technically offshore, but even then, the models are calling it poor surf. It’s a real bummer.

Let’s start at the beginning. Tuesday, the 28th, we’ve got a tiny 4 ft swell from the NNE with a short period of 8 seconds, giving weak wave energy (185). The water temperature is 74°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But the wind is onshore and bumpy, so the surf is a no-go. This pattern just repeats. Wednesday, the 29th, the swell is a bit bigger at 4 ft to 5 ft, but the period drops to 6 seconds, and the combined energy is even weaker (138 to 164). It’s still cross-onshore and choppy. Thursday, the 30th, the swell climbs to 6 ft, and the energy kicks up to a moderate 258, but the period is still short (6-7 seconds) and the wind is cross-onshore. It’s messy.

Friday, the 31st, we see the swell hold at 6 ft, the period stays short at 7 seconds, and the energy is moderate (286 to 321). The wind is offshore in the morning, but the call is still "poor surf conditions." This continues right through the first week. Saturday, August 1st, and Sunday, August 2nd, have light winds and a drop in size to 4 ft-5 ft, but the wave energy is low (173 to 269) and the period is short. Nothing to get excited about.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Monday, August 3rd, through to Monday, August 10th, the swell is all over the place – from 3 ft up to 7 ft – but the energy is only moderate, never cracking the "strong" category. The period is stuck between 7 and 9 seconds. The wind is mostly offshore, sometimes from the north, sometimes from the NNE, but it’s a moderate breeze. Despite the better wind, it’s still reported as "poor surf conditions." The biggest energy we see in this stretch is 641 on Saturday, August 8th, with a 7 ft swell, but it’s a lumpy, short-period wind swell with no real shape.

The only time the swell direction shifts to the NNW is on Wednesday, August 12th, but by then the swell is only 6 ft with a short period of 7 seconds. The energy is moderate (304-308), and while the wind is offshore, it’s too little, too late. The whole 16-day run is a write-off. There’s no standout, no hidden gem. The wind is never truly glassy or clean, and the swell never lines up with what El Roque needs to be good. If you’re a kite surfer, the choppy, windy afternoons might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, this is a blank period. It’s a long stretch of nothing, and that’s just the reality for this area sometimes.

Rusty.

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