El Roque Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

El Roque – a reef break, and it’s pointing straight into the swell. The forecast shows a lot of activity, but for the most part, it’s going to be a real struggle. The wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, blowing at 12 mph to 16 mph, which is a moderate breeze, and that’s going to chop things up badly. The first recommendation doesn’t actually come up until Friday, July 17th, and it’s a tough one. The surf is poor from the get-go.

Friday morning, July 17th, we’ve got a weak 4 ft swell from the NE with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined swell energy is a paltry 133 (weak). The wind is onshore, and the water temp is 74°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 2° above average. It’s not a clean picture. The waves are going to be poor – it’s a write-off.

The pattern doesn’t let up. Saturday, July 18th, through Sunday, July 19th, the swell bumps up to 5 ft – 6 ft, but the period is still only 6-7 seconds and the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore. The wave comment is “poor surf conditions” on every single entry. There’s no stand-out morning or afternoon to get excited about.

By Monday, July 20th, the swell pushes into the 7 ft - 7 ft range, and the energy climbs into the moderate zone (426 to 475). But the wind is still onshore, and the period is short at 7-8 seconds. It’s just messy, choppy surf. This continues all the way through to the end of July. The swell stays around 7 ft to 8 ft, with the energy getting stronger (up to 1230 by July 30th), but the wind just won’t cooperate. The “poor surf conditions” tag is relentless.

The closest thing to a glimmer comes on Wednesday, July 29th, morning. The swell is 8 ft from the NNE, period is 9 seconds, and the energy is strong (1109). The wind is a gentle breeze at 9 mph, cross-onshore, so it’s only “fairly choppy” instead of fully choppy. The system even gives it a score of 1 out of 10, calling it “marginal.” But it’s still not clean. That’s the best we get, and it’s not good.

Then on Thursday, July 30th, the energy jumps to 1939 – very strong – but the wind is straight back to moderate cross-onshore, and the waves are again labelled “poor.” The swell is 8 ft, which is getting into expert territory, but with that wind, it’s a battle.

The last day, Saturday, August 1st, looks like a big cleanup. We’re looking at 10 ft from the NNE with a 10-second period and a massive 1722 energy reading. But the wind is onshore at 16 mph. The comment is “poor surf conditions.” It’s a setup that would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The inconsistency is brutal – every single day is a miss.

So, bottom line: there’s nothing worth paddling out for. Not a single standout. The whole 16-day run is a blank. The break is fairly consistent in terms of swell, but the wind direction and state ruin every single one. For a reef break, you need the wind to be offshore – it’s blowing from the south, which is offshore here, but the wind is coming from the north and north-northeast, which is onshore or cross-onshore. It’s just a bad run. You’re better off staying home.

Rusty.

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