Dunes Hotel (Miami) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I’m not gonna lie to you – this Miami outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long, flat stretch ahead before anything even remotely interesting shows up.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, the first bit is pretty much a write-off. We’re talking tiny, weak, and messy surf from the get-go. Saturday the 12th offers just 1 ft of weak, short-period E swell with a cross-onshore breeze. It's a no-go. The combined energy is barely registering at (4), so save your energy. That same poor pattern hangs around for days. Sunday the 13th morning is more of the same, but by the afternoon we get a glimpse of something clean – a glassy 1 ft – but it’s still too weak to bother with. Monday through to Thursday of the following week is a dead zone of tiny, onshore junk and building winds. A few days of clean cross-offshore winds pop up around the 21st to the 23rd, but the swell is practically non-existent at 0.3 ft. It's a long blank run of about ten days.

Now, here’s where it gets a little interesting, but you gotta be patient. Around Friday the 25th, things start to rumble. We see a pulse of energy arrive with a 3 ft NNE swell, but it’s accompanied by a fresh onshore wind, so it’s not going to be pretty. The real tease is on Saturday the 26th of September. The forecast is showing a solid 4 ft NNE swell with a long period of 12 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps up to (325), so there’s genuine power in the water. However, the wind is still onshore, churning it up. The water temp is sitting at a balmy 87°, which is a touch warmer than average for the time of year.

Dunes Hotel (Miami) is the only spot in the game here. It’s a sheltered, inconsistent beginner break. That 4 ft, long-period NNE swell on Saturday the 26th is technically the standout, but only in the context of this otherwise dire forecast. That long period (12 secs) will produce better-shaped waves with more energy and longer lulls between sets, which can make getting out back easier. But because it’s a beach setup and it’s onshore, those waves might break a bit straight. The real kicker is that 4 ft is right on the edge of being too much for the beginners who usually surf here, and the crowds are often around. Honestly, with that onshore wind, this setup is looking way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now.

It’s a long wait for not much, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Keep an eye on the forecast, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

- Rusty

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