Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, it's your local man Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a rough one. The whole 16-day window for Wailua/Horners is a real struggle. The wind is almost always on it or cross-on, and the conditions just never line up to give us that clean, rippable wave we're all chasing. It's a long stretch of "poor surf conditions" with barely a glimmer of hope.

Let's start with the water. At a warm 80°F with a tiny anomaly of -0.5°F, it's pretty much spot on average for this time of year, so no excuses there.

Right from Friday the 21st of August, it's onshore slop. We got a tiny 3 ft swell from the east with a short 8-second period, and the combined energy is weak at 162. The cross-onshore breeze just messes it up completely. Saturday the 22nd pushes a bit more size at 4 ft, but the onshore wind from the ENE at 9-12 mph just turns it into a bumpy mess. That afternoon actually shows a jump in energy to 534, but it's from a wonky WNW direction with a 13-second period – wrong angle, wrong vibe.

Sunday the 23rd and through the whole next week, it's the same story: onshore wind, mostly from the ENE at 12-16 mph, with waves hanging around the 5 ft to 6 ft mark. The energy climbs toward moderate (hitting 502 on Sunday arvo), but the period stays short at 6-8 seconds, so it’s just weak, wind-affected junk. This pattern keeps up right through to Friday the 28th.

Towards the end of August and into the first days of September, the swell size really starts to pump up, but it’s for all the wrong reasons. August 31st hits 8 ft with a very strong energy reading of 1645, and by September 1st we’re looking at 12 ft from the east with a ridiculous 3019 energy. But the wind is howling out of the NE at 19 mph, lumpy as hell, and with a period of 10-11 seconds, this is a dangerous, closed-out mess. That’s strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. Honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on those days.

The very last few days, around September 4th and 5th, the wind finally backs off a touch to a light 6-9 mph cross-on, and the swell drops back down to a more manageable 3 ft to 5 ft. The period on the 5th stretches out to a nice 12 seconds, bringing a bit of groundswell energy (510). The forecast even calls it "marginal" which is the best we’re gonna get. It might not be totally blown out, but "cross-on" is still a cross-on.

Honestly, for this whole 16-day run, there's no standout, no session to circle on the calendar. It's a long wait for anything that even sniffs at being rideable. Let's hope the forecasts change because this blank run is a tough one for the area.

- Rusty

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