Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Well, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is shaping up to be a real tricky one for us. The data is pointing to a long, frustrating run of poor conditions, with a couple of small windows that might be worth a look if you're desperate, but nothing that’s gonna get me paddling out in a hurry. The first real chance of anything resembling a surf shows up on Tuesday, 8th September, but even that’s a bit of a gamble.

The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent onshore wind from the east-northeast, mainly blowing onshore, which is just ruining the wave quality. For the first few days, from the 5th through the 7th, it’s a write-off. We’re looking at onshore winds of 16 mph, rain and thunderstorms, and the swell is a messy, lumpy 8 ft to 12 ft with short periods around 7 to 14 seconds. The combined wave energy is high, hitting 1373 on the 7th, but it’s all windslop. That’s not surf, that’s just a washing machine.

Now, Tuesday, 8th September, is where it gets interesting. The wind swings to the southwest, giving us a light 9 mph cross-offshore breeze at Wailua/Horners. The swell drops to a cleaner 7 ft to 7 ft with a period of 11 to 12 seconds. The energy is still strong at 1503. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. This is the only real standout in the whole outlook. The break is a reef, so it handles that long-period energy well, but it’s a spot for advanced surfers only – 7 ft+ on a reef is no joke. Also, the crowds are often there, so expect some company. Tuesday morning and afternoon look clean, but after that? Back to the grind.

From Wednesday, 9th September, through to the 20th, it’s a slog. The swell drops off, periods get short again, and that ENE wind comes straight back onshore. The swell height bounces between 4 ft and 7 ft, but the period rarely gets above 8 seconds, and the energy readings are all weak, mostly under 600. There’s a lot of “risk tstorm” and “rain shwrs” in the mix, and the wind is consistently onshore or cross-onshore at 9 to 16 mph. It’s essentially a 12-day gap of poor surf conditions. The only flicker of hope is on the 11th, when the period jumps to 12 seconds for the afternoon, but the swell is still just 5 ft and the wind is onshore, so it’s not going to clean up.

For a spot that’s already inconsistent, this is a long, blank run. If you’ve got a kite, you might have more fun on some of those windier, choppier days, especially around the 7th when the wind is cross-onshore and the swell is over 10 ft. But for a paddle surfer? You’re basically waiting for that Tuesday, 8th September window. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only thing on the table.

Rusty.

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