Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range look for our local waters.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window is a real tough one for Wailua/Horners. We're looking at a long stretch of onshore wind and messy conditions that just won't let up. The water temp is sitting around 79°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're getting frustrated.

The first recommendation doesn't pop up until Wednesday, August 19th, but don't get your hopes up. The entire run from the 19th all the way through the end of August is plagued by poor surf quality. We're seeing a persistent onshore flow from the ENE and NE, gusting 9 to 16 mph, which is just blowing the wind right into the face of the swell. Wave heights are mostly in the 3 ft to 5 ft range, but the energy is weak to moderate (174 to 533), and with short periods of 6 to 9 seconds, it's just not getting any shape. The swell direction is mostly from the E, which is cross to the optimum N direction this spot likes. There's a brief glimmer on Saturday, August 22nd, with a longer-period WNW swell at 12 seconds and moderate energy (330 to 427), but the onshore wind is still on it, and the conditions are still rated as poor. It's a no-go.

This blank run continues right through the end of the month. We finally see a bit of a change on Tuesday, September 1st. The afternoon brings a swell from the E at 7 ft with a 10-second period, and the energy jumps up to a strong 1015. But it's still too onshore for clean conditions. The only real standout in this whole forecast is Wednesday, September 2nd. The swell builds to 7 ft from the E with a period of 11 seconds, giving us a very strong energy reading (1172). The wind drops to a gentler 9 mph from the ENE. This is where the forecast bumps up to a "marginal" rating, which is the best we're going to see. This is an advanced-only wave at this size, and with the long period, it's going to be a proper groundswell, which can be a bit tricky and walled-off at a beach break, but on a reef setup like Horners, it could offer some solid, powerful lines. The catch? The wind is still onshore, so it's going to be bumpy, and there's a risk of rain showers in the morning. It's the best on offer, but it's a long way out and you'll need to be on your A-game. After that, Thursday the 3rd drops back to smaller, marginal surf.

So, what's the call? The honest truth is there's no truly good, clean surf in this entire 16-day outlook. The conditions are just too persistent with the onshore trade winds. For the whole first week, you're better off staying home. The second week has a flicker of hope on September 2nd, but it's a long-range promise that comes with caveats. If you're a hardcore charger who doesn't mind bumpy, powerful waves, mark that date. For everyone else, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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