Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s see what we’ve got for this little stretch of coast over the next couple of weeks. Look, I’ll be straight with ya – it’s gonna be a long wait for any real surf. We’re looking at a pretty bleak run for the next week and a half, so if you’re itching to paddle out, you might wanna take up golf.

The first sign of anything half-decent doesn’t roll in until Wednesday the 23rd of September, and even then, it’s only just creeping up to "maybe worth a look." Before that, from now right through to Tuesday the 22nd, the wave comment is screaming "poor surf conditions" every single session. We’ve got weak onshore winds and tiny, short-period lumps that just aren’t doing anything. The energy is low – mostly two-digit or low three-digit numbers (238 at the start, dropping to 124 on Monday afternoon) – and the swell is sloppy. Don’t bother.

Now, that Wednesday the 23rd morning finally shows a pulse. At Wailua/Horners, we see a swell building to 7ft from the East with a period of 10 seconds. That’s a groundswell, but the water temp is sitting at 80°, right on average for September, so no surprises there. The wind is a gentle onshore breeze from the East at 9 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but at least it’s light. The combined energy jumps to a strong four-digit value (1002), which tells you there’s some grunt behind it. However, the wave comment is still "marginal" for that day, and this break is an exposed reef that’s inconsistent and often crowded. The 7ft East pulse is right on the cusp of too big for beginners, but for an advanced crew, it’s the standout of the whole forecast. The swell direction is from the East, and this spot needs a North swell to be at its best, so it won’t be perfect. Still, it’s the best we’ve got.

Thursday the 24th morning hangs in there with 6ft from the East, still a 10-second period, and lighter ENE winds at 9 mph. The energy is still strong at 736 – a solid session if you can get it. But by Thursday afternoon, it drops back to poor conditions.

After that, the second week fades again. Friday the 25th sees a drop to 6ft, and by Saturday the 26th the swell swings to a NNW direction with a longer 11-second period, but the wind picks up to 16 mph onshore and the thunderstorm risk is there. Energy is still high at 779 on Saturday morning, but that wind is going to chop it up. For a point break or a reef, that longer period might actually straighten it out, but with the onshore flow, it’s not looking appetizing. The whole period finishes with a similar story on Sunday the 27th – 4ft from the North at a long 12-second period, but winds still strong and storms threatening.

So, the one true standout is Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th of September. The biggest swell direction doesn’t match the break’s optimum, but the size and energy are real. If you’re advanced and you’ve got patience, that’s your window. Expect crowds – this spot is "often" packed. For everyone else, keep an eye on the forecast; things can change.

Rusty.

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