Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipeline for our stretch of coast. I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are gonna be a real test of patience. We’re locked into a stubborn pattern that’s just not giving us much to work with. The water’s sitting at about 80°, which is pretty much right on the money for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right out of the gate, Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, August 12th, the swell is small and weak. We’re looking at 4ft of short-period, weak E windswell at 7 seconds. The energy is feeble – readings are between 155 and 172 (weak energy). To make matters worse, that wind is howling onshore from the ENE. The waves will be a chopped-up mess. Save your energy, it’s not worth paddling out.

Thursday the 13th through Friday the 14th is more of the same story. The swell bumps up slightly to 5ft - 6ft from the E, period stretches to a weak 8 seconds, and the energy climbs into the moderate range (176 to 431). But it’s all worthless because the wind is still pumping onshore – moderate to fresh breeze from the NE and ENE. It’s junk out there.

Now, heading into the weekend, Saturday August 15th, the swell jumps to 7ft with a longer 11-second period from the NE, and the energy surges into the strong category (1055). Sunday the 16th gets even bigger, with 10ft swells and energy hitting 1921 (very strong wave energy). Sounds promising, right? Wrong. This is a full-on wind event. We’re talking about rain showers and risk of thunderstorms, with onshore winds hitting gale force on Sunday morning at 34 mph. The swell is raw and the wind is going to tear it to pieces. This is not paddle surfing weather. With that much onshore wind and a beach-reef setup, you’d be better off rigging a kite.

Monday August 17th is the only day that even flirts with being surfable, and it’s still a stretch. Swell drops to 13ft from the E but the period drops to 10 seconds. The energy is off the charts at 2779 (very strong wave energy), and that’s why it gets a marginal score of 1. The wind finally backs off to a gentle breeze from the ESE, leaving it cross-onshore and fairly choppy. For a crew of advanced surfers only. That 13ft is big, heavy, and messy. The wave comment says it best: “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” This is the only window worth looking at, and it’s for experts only.

After Monday, it’s a long, slow fade. From Tuesday August 18th all the way through to Wednesday August 26th, the swell drops back to knee-waist high junk. Swell heights bounce between 4ft and 6ft, periods are short (6 to 8 seconds), all from the E/ENE. The energy is weak to moderate (118 to 363). The wind is still onshore or cross-onshore. It’s day after day of poor surf conditions. That’s nearly a week and a half of flat, blown-out nothingness.

So here’s the bottom line: if you’re an expert and you’re willing to battle some serious chop, Monday August 17th at Wailua/Horners (Kauai) is your only real chance, with a 13ft E swell and the wind backing off a little. For everyone else, this forecast is a write-off. A blank run like this is more normal for the area when we get stuck in a trade wind pattern.

Chin up, it’ll turn around eventually.

Rusty

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