Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. This forecast window is a tough one to call. We've got a solid 16 days of outlook data, but the first stretch is looking pretty grim for any kind of proper surf. The energy in the water is there, but it's messy and coming from the wrong angle for our standout spot.

For the first ten days or so, we're dealing with mostly onshore east-northeast winds and that’s going to keep things chopped up and poor. The swell is small and short-period, which means it'll be weak and disorganized. We're looking at a lot of days where you'd paddle out and just be fighting for a grovelly, closeout wave. Not worth the effort for most of us.

The real issue is that the swell direction is coming from the ENE and E, which is cross-on and onshore for our main break. That's a recipe for windslop, not for clean waves. The combined energy is moderate at times, in the 300 to 450 range on the 10th and 11th, but it's all that messy, short-period stuff. Not our friend.

Now, on the 24th of September, things start to shift. The morning is still poor, but the afternoon shows a new, long-period WNW swell arriving at 20 seconds. That's a very long-period groundswell, and the energy jumps right up to 532. This is the kind of swell that has real potential for a place like Wailua/Horners. It's a reef break that loves a west-northwest swell, and the direction is bang on the optimum.

This is our standout window. This is a quality, long-period swell that will wrap in properly. The break is only for the advanced crew, but when this kind of energy arrives, that's exactly who it's for. The long period can make beach breaks close out, but at a reef setup like this, it should hold its shape nicely.

The energy keeps building into the 25th, hitting 666, which is strong to very strong. The swell backs off a touch in height, but the period stays long. This is looking like the best two sessions of the entire forecast. It's a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but the signs are there.

We’ve got a long, flat spell before then, so if you're waiting for that, you're going to have to be patient. It’s looking like a blank run until the 24th. But when that WNW groundswell shows up, it could be well worth the wait.

Alright, that's the skinny on it. Keep your eyes on that forecast for the end of the month. This is Rusty, signing off.

Read more