Wailua/Horners Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yeah, look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a proper paddle. We’ve got a solid wave of energy pushing through, but the wind is just killing it. Everything is coming in from the east and northeast, which is straight onshore for Wailua/Horners. That means wind-blown, lumpy, and messy conditions just about every day, with only the briefest of windows where things might clean up.

The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is about normal for this time of year. Not a surprise.

Right now, the surf is small, around the 4ft mark with a weak and short-period east swell. The energy is there in the water – about 375 on the combined scale – but it’s all over the place with that onshore breeze. It’s poor out there. Not worth your time.

This pattern is going to hold for the first several days. Swell heights will bob around from 3ft to maybe 4ft, but the period stays short and the wind stays on it. It’s not going to be clean, and it’s not going to be powerful. The only real change is the swell pushing up a bit around the 17th, getting to 6ft, but with the same onshore wind, it’s just going to be a bigger, messier closeout.

We get a bit of a lull in the middle of the period, dropping down to under 3ft around the 20th, but by the 23rd, things start to wake up. The swell really kicks in, hitting 8ft on Wednesday the 23rd, and energy jumps to 860 – that’s some proper grunt. But again, the wind is still blowing onshore from the east-northeast at 12 mph, so it’s going to be a stormy, choppy mess. Tough paddling, tough surfing.

The only real glimmer of hope in this whole run is on Thursday, the 24th. The swell is still solid, around 6ft, and the wind finally backs right off in the afternoon. We get a light east breeze at just 3 mph instead of the usual 12, making for glassy, clean conditions. The energy is still strong, around 612, and the swell is coming from the east with a 9-second period. That’s when Horners is going to actually have some shape to it. The morning might be a bit iffy with a cross-on breeze and a chance of thunderstorms, but that afternoon window is your standout. It’s the only time in this whole forecast that it looks genuinely surfable.

Friday the 25th, the wind is back on it again at 12 mph, chopping up the 7ft to 7ft swell. After that, things start to ease off as we head into the weekend, dropping back to the 4-5ft range with the same old east-northeast wind. Nothing to get too excited about.

So, bottom line: this reef break is going to be a battle for the next two weeks. The swell is there for sure, but the wind is just relentless. If you’re a glutton for punishment and need to get wet, keep your eyes on the Thursday afternoon session on the 24th – that’s your one window. Otherwise, this setup looks a whole lot more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

Rusty.

Read more