Thousand Steps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, giving you the straight talk on the Thousand Steps forecast for the next couple of weeks. It’s a mixed bag, but there’s a nugget of gold if you know when to look.

We start on Thursday, July 23rd, and it’s a bit of a letdown. The swell is a tiny 3ft from the south, with a 12-second period. It’s a groundswell, but a cross-onshore wind is ruining the surface. The water is a balmy 72°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a real anomaly of 6° warmer. The combined wave energy is moderate (475), but the conditions are just marginal. Not your day.

Friday and Saturday are more of the same. The swell drops a little, and we get a mix of SW and SSW swell. The period goes all the way out to 24 seconds on Friday, which is a very long period groundswell. That sounds like a dream, but at a reef break, it can sometimes get a bit too straight and fast. The morning winds on Saturday look like they might go offshore, which is a big plus for clean waves, but the swell is still small at 3ft. The energy is heavy (746), but it’s still just a marginal call.

Sunday through to the following Thursday are stuck in a rut. The swell inches up to about 4ft, and the period drops from 19 seconds down to 15 seconds. The wind is mostly light, but it’s cross-onshore or variable. The combined energy is strong (up to 851). But the forecast keeps saying “marginal” or “poor.” We’re still waiting for the magic moment.

Then, on Friday, July 31st, the picture clears up. The swell holds at 4ft, the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the wave energy jumps to 1004 – that’s strong. The morning wind is light and offshore, which is a major positive for clean, glassy conditions. The swell is coming from the SSE, which is a little off the optimum, but the strong energy and the clean wind make this the best window of the whole forecast. It’s still technically “marginal,” but it’s the clear winner.

The next day, Saturday, August 1st, is a close second. The swell pushes up to 5ft from the south, with a 13-second period. That’s a bigger, more powerful wave, but the wind is a light cross-onshore, so it won’t be as perfect. The energy is still strong (782). This is getting into the territory where it’s too big for beginners, but it’s a solid intermediate and expert option.

After that, it’s a desert. From Sunday, August 2nd, all the way through to Friday, August 7th, the surf dies. The heights drop to 2ft to 3ft, the periods get short and weak, and the winds are consistently cross-onshore or choppy. The wave energy sinks to three-digit values (as low as 98), which is weak. The forecasts are all “poor surf conditions.” That’s a solid 6-day stretch of flat or ugly water.

The one to circle on your calendar: The morning of Friday, July 31st. That’s the standout. Strong wave energy (1004), a clean offshore wind, and a solid 4ft swell from the SSE. The next morning, August 1st, is a good backup if you want a bit more size, but the wind won’t be as kind.

Thousand Steps is a very consistent reef break, and it can get busy. Just a heads up – the crowds are possible, especially on a good day. For the 31st, with the offshore wind, it’s going to be a proper session.

Rusty.

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