Thousand Steps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about Thousand Steps. It’s a reef break that’s open to the SW swell, built for intermediate surfers, and it breaks very consistently, so you know there’s usually a wave to be had. But for the next 16 days, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – it’s a tough stretch. There’s no standout, no day that’s gonna get the blood pumping. We’re looking at a long string of marginal to poor surf from now through the end of the month.

Starting Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got some clouds and a light cross-on wind from the S at 9 mph. The swell is a tiny 2 ft from the SW, but the period is a long 16 seconds – that’s real groundswell. The combined energy is weak at 172, and the report says poor surf. The water’s at 73°, which is more than 5° warmer than usual, so that’s very unusual. In the afternoon, it clears up, wind drops to 6 mph from the SSW, still cross-on, with a 1 ft SW swell and a very long 20-second period. Energy bumps to 254, but it’s still poor. That long period at a reef can make the waves a bit straight, and with the wind on it, it’s sloppy.

Wednesday the 16th, the morning swell picks up to 3 ft from the SSW with an 18-second period. Energy is moderate at 368, but the wind stays a light cross-on. By the afternoon, the wind goes onshore from the SW at 6 mph, so still not clean. It’s all labeled poor.

Thursday the 17th is the first day we see a “marginal” tag in the morning – 2 ft from the SSW, 16-second period, light onshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph. Energy is 361. You *could* paddle out, but it won’t be pretty. Afternoon goes back to poor.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th both have marginal mornings (2 ft, SW, 18-19s period, light onshore wind) and poor afternoons. Energy stays moderate in the 360s. The wind is light, but it’s never offshore or glassy.

Sunday the 20th is the closest thing to a highlight. Morning is still poor with 3 ft from the SW and a 9 mph cross-on. But the afternoon shows the highest energy of the whole run at 528, and the wind drops to almost nothing – just 3 mph onshore from the WSW. Swell is 3 ft from the SW with an 18-second period, and it’s called marginal. That’s the best we get, but it’s still not good. The waves will be small and the long period will make them inconsistent and a bit walled-up.

From Monday the 21st onward, it’s a slog. Swell stays between 2 ft and 3 ft from SW or SSW, with periods dropping from 17 seconds down to 12 seconds by the end of the month. Energy bounces between 220 and 344, mostly moderate. The wind is almost always cross-on or onshore, never offshore. By the last week of September, the period falls below 15 seconds, and the energy fizzles. The final days, Tuesday the 30th, are a pitiful 1 ft to 2 ft, poor conditions, and weak energy (181 to 240). There’s a 6-day gap at the end with no marginal calls at all – just straight poor.

For the whole 16 days, we’ve only got a handful of mornings that scrape into “marginal.” No standout whatsoever. The setup on most afternoons looks better for kite surfing than paddle surfing with the choppy cross-onshore wind. If you’re really keen, the Sunday afternoon the 20th is your best shot – small, relatively clean, but don’t get your hopes up. The rest is a bust. Forecasts can always change, so keep an eye out, but this one’s a struggle.

Rusty.

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