Thousand Steps Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's take a look at what's coming our way for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the outlook for Thousand Steps is a bit of a tough one. The pattern is mostly small, choppy, and crossed-up, and we’ve got a long wait for anything worth getting properly excited about. The water is sitting at 73°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a really notable anomaly of 6°, so don’t expect the usual winter chill.

For the first week and a half, it’s pretty grim. From Sunday the 16th all the way through to the afternoon of Sunday the 23rd, the forecast is littered with poor or marginal conditions. We're seeing tiny, short-period swell, mostly 1 ft to 3 ft, arriving from the SSW. The wind is almost always cross-on, so right off the bat, the surface is going to be a mess. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate (mostly in the 100 to 410 range), and the period rarely cracks 16 seconds. It's a grind of small, weak, and choppy surf.

There is one real glimmer of hope, and it lands on the afternoon of Sunday the 23rd. For that one window, the wind drops right out – we’re talking glassy conditions with just a slight air. The swell is tiny at 1 ft, but it’s a long-period SW groundswell of 18 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 286, which is moderate, and with those glassy conditions, it’s going to be clean as a whistle. This is your best bet. The tide will be a factor on this reef break, but for a small wave log or a longboard, it’s the only time in the whole period you’ll see a clean face. After that, it's back to marginal and poor conditions for days.

Looking further out, the energy starts to build slightly towards the end of the month. Saturday the 29th has a morning window with SSW swell hitting 3 ft at a long 16 seconds, pushing the combined energy into the strong range at 504. Unfortunately, the wind is cross-on from the SSW again, so it’s not going to be the clean session you’d hope for. Still, it’s the most powerful swell of the whole run. It's worth a look if you're desperate, but keep the expectations in check.

To be honest, if you’ve got a kite, the consistent cross-on wind and small, weak swell might make for a more interesting session than something you can actually paddle into.

Keep an eye on that glass-off on the afternoon of the 23rd. That’s the standout, and the only true winner on the cards. After that, it’s a waiting game again.

- Rusty

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