The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s talk about what’s on the menu. It’s a bit of a slow start out there, but the ocean is going to wake up soon. We’ve got a long window ahead, so let’s break it down.

Right now, things are pretty flat and the water is running warm—about 3° warmer than normal for this time of year, which you’ll feel the moment you paddle out. That’s a notable jump. The first few days are looking marginal, with only small, weak surf on offer through the weekend. Friday and Saturday are pretty lackluster, with waves around 3 feet and some cross-onshore ripples. The swell is weak, coming in at about 525 units of energy on Friday, and it just doesn’t have any push. Honestly, it’s not worth getting too excited about just yet.

We’ve got a gap of a few slow days here to start, but things start to shift on Monday the 14th. The swell drops a touch more, but the period jumps up to 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and even though it’s small, that long period means the waves that do come through will have some shape. Monday morning, The Rock-Costa Azul (Costa Azul) is glassy and clean, a little under 3 feet, coming from the southwest. The energy is still moderate at 463, but the clean conditions are a real bonus.

The pick of the first week is shaping up to be Wednesday the 16th. We see the swell build a bit to 3 feet, the period holds at 16 seconds, and both the morning and afternoon are glassy with light offshore winds. The energy jumps to 647, which is a solid step up. This is a reef break, and with that long-period SW swell, it’s going to line up nicely. The direction matches the optimum for this spot, so the sets should be hitting with some purpose. This is the one to circle on the calendar for the near term.

The second half of the week, from the 17th through the 19th, stays consistent. Thursday the 17th is very good again, with 3 feet of swell and clean, offshore winds in the afternoon. The energy climbs to 741, so there’s some real grunt behind it. Friday the 18th morning is a little messy with a SE cross-on, but the afternoon cleans up nicely with a light WSW cross-off. The water is still warm, and the swell is holding.

Now, for the standout of the whole window, look to Sunday the 20th. We get a bit more size, with 4 feet of swell, a solid 19-second period, and clean conditions in the morning under a light SW wind. The energy hits 943, which is the strongest we see for a while. This is a proper groundswell, and it’s going to have some real push. The Rock is an exposed reef, and with this direction and period, it’s going to be firing. This is the best on offer, hands down. Crowds are often a factor at this spot, so get out early to make the most of it.

That run of good surf carries into Monday the 21st, with the energy at 949 in the morning. The wind is a light cross-on, so it’s not perfect, but the swell is there. The week after that, things start to ease off. The second week is a bit more modest; we’re still in the 3-4 feet range, but the periods drop back to the 14-16 second mark. The energy is still moderate, but it’s not as powerful. The mornings on the 24th look glassy and clean, but the swell is a bit weaker.

As we get into the final days, the surf fades. Friday the 26th morning is a bit of a write-off—the energy is low, the wind is onshore, and it’s choppy. To be honest, that setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. It’s a poor day. The afternoon cleans up a little, but the swell direction swings to the southeast, which isn’t ideal for this break. That’s about it for the window. It starts slow, has a fantastic middle, and then trails off. Get your sessions in around the 16th and especially the 20th. That’s where the magic is.

Rusty.

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