The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for The Rock-Costa Azul over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta say, the water is sittin' at a balmy 85°, which is a massive 6° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s wild, feels more like a tropical bath than the open ocean – you won’t need a wetsuit, that’s for sure.

The forecast starts a bit slow. Monday morning, we’ve got a 3ft SSW swell but it’s only pushin’ 573 units of energy, and with a light onshore breeze, it’s lookin’ pretty marginal. Not worth paddlin’ out for. Monday afternoon cleans up a touch with a glassy cross-shore, but the swell drops to 3ft and the energy is similar. Still a bit meh.

Tuesday sees the swell back off further to 2ft, and we’ve got light cross-onshore winds. Poor conditions. Wednesday brings a touch more size – 4ft to 4ft – but it’s a short-period SE swell (9 seconds) with cross-shore winds. It’s gonna be a bit choppy and won’t have much punch.

But here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is Thursday the 16th. Thursday morning, the wind swings offshore from the W at just 5 km/h, and the swell is a clean 2ft from the SW with a 16-second period. The energy is 329 units – nothing huge, but with that glassy, clean surface, it’s gonna be a fun little sesh. Thursday afternoon is even better: absolute glassy conditions with an ESE wind at 5 km/h, a 2ft SW swell, and a 19-second period. That’s a long, clean groundswell that will wrap nicely into this reef break. It’s not big, but it’ll be the most perfect, lined-up waves of the week. Fair warning: crowds are often here, so expect company.

After that, Friday the 17th is a write-off with onshore winds and poor conditions. Saturday the 18th afternoon though, we get a decent 5ft SSW swell with 11-second period, a cross-offshore wind, and 829 units of energy. Clean conditions and a solid wave for experienced surfers.

Then it gets quiet again until we hit the big stuff. The real heavy hitters arrive on Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd. Monday afternoon, we’re talkin’ a 10ft SSW swell with 14-second period and a massive 3232 units of energy. The wind is cross-offshore and clean. But let me be clear: this is expert only territory. At 10ft, this reef is gonna be a freight train. Tuesday the 22nd afternoon unloads a 10ft SW swell (14s) with a WNW offshore wind at 15 km/h, and the energy is a whopping 3838 units. The forecast says it’s too big for the break, and I agree – if you’re not a seasoned charger, stay on the sand and watch. This is proper big-wave territory.

The swell eases a bit into the following week. Thursday the 23rd afternoon offers a 8ft SW swell (13s) with clean cross-offshore wind and 2341 units of energy. This is still a big, powerful wave for experienced surfers. Friday the 24th afternoon is a touch more manageable: 6ft SW swell (12s) with clean cross-offshore wind and 1003 units of energy. It’s a solid, fun wave for anyone who knows what they’re doing.

The last week of the window is a bit mixed. Saturday the 25th is small, but Sunday the 26th afternoon sees a 4ft SW swell with a long 18-second period and 1171 units of energy. Light cross-onshore wind, but the long period means it’ll be clean and have some push. The final standout is Monday the 28th afternoon, but that’s a monster 25ft SE swell with 13-second period and a staggering 16074 units of energy. That is absolutely terrifying and not for anyone. Expert-only, and even then, it’s a serious mission.

So, my pick for the best on offer? Thursday the 16th afternoon. It’s not the biggest, but 2ft of glassy, 19-second groundswell with offshore wind is about as perfect as it gets for a clean, fun session. The water is freakishly warm, the waves are lined up, and it’s a real treat. For the big-wave crew, the 22nd and 23rd are the ones to circle, but you better be ready.

Rusty, out.

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