The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, g'day crew, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the next 16 days for The Rock down on the Costa Azul. It's a solid reef break that handles a south swell best, but it's a bit of a tricky one – it's for advanced crew only, and can be a real handful.

Alright, first thing you need to know about The Rock – the water's *much warmer than normal* for this time of year. We're talking about a water temperature anomaly of 3°, which is very unusual. So the wettie might not need to be so thick.

We don't have much happening to start. The forecast kicks off on Sunday the 12th of July. Sunday morning is a write-off with poor surf, but by the afternoon the wind goes cross-offshore from the west-southwest, and the swell cleans right up. You'll have 4 ft of south-southwest swell with a solid 14-second period. That's a proper groundswell with decent energy (608 energy units). It’s not huge, but with clean conditions it's a good chance for those who know the lineup.

Monday the 13th sees the swell drop a touch to 3 ft, still from the south-southwest. The morning has a light cross-on breeze, but the afternoon is the pick – light cross-off from the southwest and clean waves. Again, not a standout size-wise, but the conditions are there.

Then we hit a bit of a flat spell. Tuesday the 14th through to the middle of the following week, the swell gets pretty small and the wind is messy. A few sessions show marginal conditions, and the energy levels drop. This reef won't be doing much.

Here's where it gets interesting. Looking out to Friday the 17th of July, the models are hinting at a pulse of swell. Friday morning we see 8 ft of south-southwest swell (11-second period) but it’s a bit onshore. The energy is strong (1,722 energy units). This is getting into the size where only the experienced crew should be out. The bigger stuff rolls in over the weekend, but the winds are average.

Now, for the real standout window and the best bet of the outlook. Jump to a week and a half away, to Thursday the 24th of July. Thursday morning has 5 ft of west-southwest swell, a clean cross-off breeze, and the wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions". That's a nice, manageable size for a reef. Then Friday the 25th of July is even more promising. Saturday morning the wind goes glassy with a slight air, with 3 ft of west-southwest swell – super clean and perfect for the long period groundswell that shows up in the afternoon (20-second period from the southwest!). That afternoon session on Saturday the 25th is a cracker: 3 ft, a 20-second period, and a light cross-off wind. The wave energy is pumped up with 997 units, but the size is small enough to be fun. That's a real standout.

The long-range stuff looks good, but remember, we're talking about two weeks away, so it's promising but not locked in yet. The wind and tide look favorable, but on the 21st and 22nd, the swell gets massive – over 10 ft – and the break is predicted to be too big. That's one for the tow crew or the madmen, but the word is it’s not even working right at that size. Avoid it.

Because this break is consistent and it's a reef, it can get crowded often, so be prepared to share the takeoff zone, especially on that glassy Saturday morning.

So, in short, the best on offer is the clean, glassy Saturday the 25th of July with the 20-second groundswell, and the morning of Thursday the 24th for a touch more size with clean conditions. The rest of the time is a mix of small, messy, or just too damn big.

Rusty.

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