The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me get into this forecast. It’s a bit of a mixed bag coming up, but we’ve got some moments that’ll be worth paddling out for.

This whole stretch starts off a little quiet and builds into some proper size later on, but you’ve got to pick your windows. The best of the best? I’d say Monday 20th July is the standout – glassy conditions, clean lines, and a swell that’s got a bit of grunt. But let’s take it day by day so you know what to expect.

Monday 6th July, afternoon: We kick off with The Rock-Costa Azul. It’s a consistent reef break, advanced stuff. Swell is 3.0ft from the SSW with a super long 20-second period – that’s a deep ocean groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (1125). Water temp is sitting at 83.8°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – you might not even need a spring suit. Cross-off wind from the SW at 9 mph keeps it clean. Not huge, but the quality is there for the crew who know the peak.

Tuesday 7th July: Morning sees the swell push to 5.0ft, still SSW, 18-second period. Energy bumps up (1419). That’s a solid wave size, but it’s a cross wind – a bit of chop on the face. Afternoon goes to 5.2ft with a cross-off, cleaner. Still, the scores are average – not the pick of the week.

Wednesday 8th July: Swell drops back slightly – 4.6ft in the morning, 4.3ft in the arvo. Periods are 16 seconds, so still plenty of push. Wind is light to moderate. Energy stays moderate (1104 then 946). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Thursday 9th through Sunday 12th July: A real lull sets in. Swell hovers around 3.6ft to 4.3ft, periods dropping from 16 down to 14 seconds. Energy tails off into the hundreds (908 down to 495). Winds are mostly cross or cross-off. It’s small and mediocre – a few days where it’s barely worth looking at. There’s a gap of not much good surfing here.

Monday 13th July, afternoon: Things perk up a bit. Swell is 3.0ft, but it’s a 13-second SSW groundswell with light cross-off wind at 6 mph. Energy is moderate (507). The comment says “expect very good surf conditions” – small but clean. A sneaky good session if the tide lines up.

Tuesday 14th July: Drops right off. Swell down to 2.3ft, even though the period is long at 18 seconds. Energy is moderate (514). But the swell direction is SW now, not the optimum S. Size is too small for most.

Wednesday 15th July: Morning is tiny at 2.0ft. Afternoon gets a weird shift – swell from the SE at 3.6ft with a 14-second period, energy jumps to 900. That’s coming from a different angle, not the ideal S direction. Cross wind makes it a bit messy.

Thursday 16th July: Now we’re talking size. Morning: 7.5ft from the SSE, 13-second period, moderate cross wind. That’s big – in the expert-only territory. Energy is strong (2073). Afternoon pushes up to 8.2ft from the SSE, 14-second period, cross-off wind from the SW at 16 mph. Energy jumps to 2930 – strong. This is a proper swell, but with that size at The Rock, it’ll be heavy, maybe too much for all but the most solid crew. It’s not the cleanest wind, but it’s a cross-off. Worth a look if you’ve got the stones.

Friday 17th July: This is a monster. Morning: 14.8ft from the S, 13-second period, onshore wind from the E at 19 mph, and risk of thunderstorms. Energy is huge (7453). That’s extreme – and with onshore wind, it’s pure chaos. Afternoon: still 13.

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