The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, it’s a bit of a slow start for The Rock-Costa Azul, a reef setup that loves a solid S swell. The water’s sitting at 86°F, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so you’ll be in boardshorts from the get-go.

The first few days are pretty ordinary. Friday the 31st kicks off with a weak 3ft SSW swell at 13 seconds, but with a cross-on breeze it’s messy and blown out - the combined energy is only 388 (weak to moderate), so not much to get excited about. Saturday morning, August 1st, cleans up a bit with a light cross-off wind and a 3ft SSW swell, but it’s still small (energy 355). Sunday arvo, the 2nd, has a decent offshore breeze from the WNW at 16 mph, but the swell drops to 2ft - it’s clean but tiny. The rest of the first week is a grind: small waves, often cross-shore or onshore winds, and mostly poor to marginal conditions. The combined energy hovers between 128 and 388, telling you it’s weak.

Then we get a whisper of something better. From Thursday the 6th, the swell starts to fill in with a longer period - 18 seconds on Thursday arvo, pushing 2ft from the SSW with an energy of 500, though it’s still a bit raw with that cross-off. By Friday the 7th morning, you’ve got 3ft SSW at 17 seconds, energy 650, but it’s cross-on. The real standout is way out there, two weeks ahead: Friday the 14th of August. That morning, the swell jumps to 5ft from the SW, period 18 seconds, with glassy conditions - the energy is a solid 1233 (strong). It’s labelled excellent for experienced surfers, so that’s your best bet. Saturday the 15th arvo holds 5ft SW at 16 seconds, clean and cross-off, with energy 1016 - also excellent. The long period (18-20 seconds) means this is a proper groundswell, gold at this reef.

But here’s the thing: this is an advanced break, and when the swell gets over 5ft, as it does on Friday arvo the 14th (5ft), it’s expert-only territory. The long period will also make it a bit straight at times, but for a reef, that’s energy you can work with. Crowds are often a factor here, so expect company. The first two weeks are a write-off for anything decent, but that second-week window from August 11th onward shows promise, especially the 14th and 15th - that’s the one to circle on the calendar. Off the wind, it’s all about that SW swell direction, which matches the optimum swell from the south.

So, heads up: the next 10 days are mostly flat or weak. After that, it gets interesting. I’ll be watching the 14th closely.

Rusty.

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