The Rock-Costa Azul Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Okay, let's have a look at the next couple of weeks. It's not going to be a wild ride, but there are a few moments where the stars align. We're stuck with small, contest-style waves for the most part, so forget about charging anything big. It's all about the clean ones and picking your moments.

The water is a huge story right now, sitting at 86.9° at the start of the period. That's a massive 5° warmer than it should be for this time of year, which is very unusual and makes for a proper tropical bath.

For the first few days, through the weekend and into early next week, it's pretty marginal. We've got some small south-southwest swell, around 2ft to 3.6ft, but the winds are messy, mostly cross or light cross-onshore, which will put a bit of chop on the surface. Not great. The Rock-Costa Azul is a reef setup, so it can handle a bit more, but the energy is weak, with combined energy readings in the 345 to 670 range. It's just not doing much.

Things start to clean up on Tuesday morning the 12th. The wind goes glassy, and we have a 3ft southwest swell with a 16-second period. That's a proper long-period groundswell for a reef, which is a good sign. The energy is moderate at 520, but the clean conditions will make it feel better than it is. That morning looks like the best bet for a fun, uncrowded few waves.

Then we get another window on Thursday afternoon, the 14th. The swell bumps up a touch to 4.3ft from the SSW, and the energy climbs to 1051, which is a strong reading. The wind is cross-off and clean. This is the standout period. It's still small, but it's the biggest and cleanest we'll see, with more push behind it. It's an advanced wave, and this will be the pick of the bunch for sure.

Saturday the 16th has another clean afternoon, but the swell is already backing off. After that, it drops back down and becomes a waiting game. There are fleeting moments of glassy conditions on Monday the 17th afternoon and Friday the 21st, but the swell is just too small and weak to get excited about.

The last few days of the window, from the 22nd on, see the swell fade away and the energy drop to weak readings of around 213 to 350. There are some clean windows, but there's just nothing to ride. Honestly, for the first three or four days, it's a write-off. Then it's a case of picking the two main windows, with the 14th being your best shot. The 12th is a worthy backup. The long-period swells here are best on this reef, as they tend to line up better than they would at a beach. If you're a beginner, this entire period is a no-go, as even the best waves will be closing out at a metre or so. If it gets bigger and the winds turn onshore, it might be more interesting for the kite crew. Keep an eye on the charts for the following week, but it's all about Thursday the 14th for me.

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