Surf Forecasts:
Rio Nexpa surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 22 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 14s period, SSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 27 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 580 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 21 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rio Nexpa this week:
The surf forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 21) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Rio Nexpa in the next 16 days are 1.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (CST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Fri 21st Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Thu 27th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, lookin' at the Rio Nexpa forecast from the shack. Let's break it down.
It's a slow start, no doubt. This is a super consistent point and river mouth that just loves a good SW groundswell, but conditions are gonna be all over the place for a bit. The big thing you'll feel is the water, sittin' at a balmy 88°, which is close to 3° warmer than usual for this time of year. That's some real bathtub surf.
Thursday the 20th sees some onshore junk with waves around 3ft from the SSW. Not worth paddlin' out. The real start is Friday morning, August 21st. Glassy water, a light NNE breeze, and clean 3ft waves with a 13-second period. The energy's moderate, so it's small but good for a longboard.
We get a nice little run from Saturday the 22nd through to Monday the 24th, all with good morning windows. A real standout is Sunday morning, August 23rd. Dead flat calm wind, waves at 2ft, but the period jumps to a long 18 seconds (that's a proper groundswell), and the energy is climbing. That long period will wrap nicely around the point.
Things start to get more interesting in the second week. Friday morning, August 28th is a highlight. A clean cross-off breeze with 4ft of swell from the SSW at 17 seconds. The energy's strong. That's a quality, punchy swell.
But the session of the run is Saturday morning, August 29th. Glassy. 6ft of SSW swell with a solid 16-second period and massive energy. This is expert territory now. That's a heavy, lined-up groundswell point break with zero wind. If you've got the skill, that's the one.
We drop off a bit into Monday the 31st, but it stays rideable in the 3ft range with clean morning winds.
The last few days get big again. Wednesday morning, September 2nd shows a 7ft pulse from the SW with a shorter 11-second period and huge energy. It's raw and big, expert stuff, but the wind is clean.
Thursday morning, September 3rd looks magic. 4ft of SSW swell, but with a very long 19-second period and very strong energy. Glassy. That's the kind of juice that makes the point a freight train.
Friday morning, September 4th closes it out: glassy, 6ft at 16 seconds, and massive energy. Another premium, expert-only morning.
So, plenty of clean windows, but the two absolute standouts are the glassy groundswell days: Saturday the 29th of August and Thursday the 3rd of September. Crowds are a given at Rio Nexpa on those kind of days, but it's worth every bit of company for waves like that.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Fri night. Warm (max 31°C on Fri afternoon, min 25°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Warm (max 31°C on Mon morning, min 26°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 170 | 225 | 211 | 334 | 229 | 290 | 357 | 323 | 342 | 327 | 291 | 395 | 405 | 208 | 258 | 302 | 193 | 176 | 171 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | off | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 9:28AM0.75m | 7:38PM0.53m | 9:41AM0.74m | 7:37PM0.56m | 9:51AM0.72m | 7:42PM0.60m | 9:57AM0.70m | 7:54PM0.64m | 10:00AM0.68m | 8:10PM0.68m | 10:01AM0.66m | 8:30PM0.70m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:58AM0.13m | 3:25PM0.43m | 2:14AM0.09m | 3:18PM0.44m | 2:29AM0.06m | 3:14PM0.45m | 2:44AM0.04m | 3:11PM0.45m | 2:59AM0.05m | 3:09PM0.44m | 3:12AM0.07m | 3:09PM0.42m | |||||||
 |  | | |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — |
 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:12 | — | — | 7:10 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — |
mm | 3 | — | — | 11 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 29 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 28 |
Feels °C | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 31 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 8 | SSE 10 | SSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 10 | SW 16 | W 5 | W 6 | SW 15 | W 6 |
| kJ | 133 | 160 | 154 | 154 | 214 | 201 | 306 | 194 | 149 | 158 | 186 | 395 | 405 | 83 | 258 | 32 | 30 | 176 | 39 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SW 17 | SSW 12 | SW 7 | SW 16 | SSE 9 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 10 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 170 | 225 | 211 | 334 | 229 | 290 | 357 | 290 | 342 | 242 | 291 | 119 | 43 | 208 | 48 | 302 | 193 | 58 | 171 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | W 9 | SSW 17 | SW 18 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSW 12 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 |
| kJ | 107 | 2 | 30 | 80 | 97 | 96 | 184 | 323 | 258 | 327 | 111 | 75 | 72 | 66 | 78 | 55 | 54 | 51 | 32 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 12 | — | SSW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 3 | WNW 4 | — | SW 7 | WSW 5 | W 5 | WSW 10 | W 5 | — | W 5 | W 5 |
| kJ | 27 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 12 | — | 47 | 41 | 28 | 109 | 73 | — | 21 | 70 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 411 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 407 | 0 | 0 | 406 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Michoacan | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Mexico | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rio Nexpa Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rio Nexpa provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rio Nexpa can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rio Nexpa surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rio Nexpa) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rio Nexpa may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Rio Nexpa is 60 km (37 miles) from La Orilla. If you plan a holiday in Michoacan, look for hotels and other accommodation in La Orilla. La Orilla has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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