Rio Nexpa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Rio Nexpa over the next couple of weeks. This is a proper point-and-river setup that loves a SW groundswell, and we’ve got a nice run of clean mornings on the cards, especially through the first week. The water’s sitting at a balmy 88°, which is about a touch warmer than what you’d normally expect for this time of year, so you won’t be needing a wetsuit.

Alright, Sunday morning the 9th kicks things off with glassy conditions and a clean 4ft SSW swell—long 15-second periods—giving the place a smooth, lined-up feel. The combined wave energy is moderate at (700). It’s not huge, but with no wind and no crowd issues mentioned, it’ll be a nice session if you can get out there early. The afternoon turns a bit cross-on and drops off, though.

Monday morning the 10th is another beauty: offshore wind, 3ft SSW swell at a decent 13 seconds, and clean sunny skies. The energy is still moderate (583), and the river mouth setup will be handling that nicely. The afternoons stay smaller with cross-onshore breezes, so stick to the dawn patrol.

Now, the real standout is shaping up for Thursday morning the 14th. We’ve got glassy conditions again, a 4ft SW swell, but here’s the kicker—the period jumps to 18 seconds and the combined energy cranks up to a strong (1130). That’s proper long-period groundswell, the kind that wraps into the river mouth and holds together beautifully. This is the session to circle on the calendar, just be aware that long-period swells can break a bit straight at some beachbreaks, but at a point/river like Nexpa, it’s going to reel off smooth.

The following morning, Friday the 15th, is almost as good: glassy, 5ft SW swell, 16-second periods, and very strong energy (1200). That’s a bit more push, still clean, and if you’re an intermediate or above, you’ll be grinning. It stays in that solid 3-5ft range through the weekend, with some more glassy mornings on Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th.

Into the second week, things settle down a little. The swell backs off to around 3-4ft, still mostly from the SW or SSW, with periods around 14 seconds. The mornings stay the best bet, often glassy or with light offshore/cross-off winds. Tuesday the 18th morning and Wednesday the 19th morning both look clean and fun without being world-beaters. By the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd, we’re seeing shorter-period SSE/S swells around 9-10 seconds, combined energy dropping to moderate (400-500 range). Still surfable, especially Sunday morning the 23rd with a glassy start and 4ft—just not the kind of power we had in the first week.

Overall, the first week is where it’s at, with the 14th and 15th being the true standouts. There are no long gaps without surf here; this spot delivers consistently. Just watch the afternoons for cross-on breezes and the occasional storm risk.

Rusty.

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