Surf Forecasts:
Rio Nexpa surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 28 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 18s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 29 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SW swell with 1,239 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 27 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 18s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rio Nexpa this week:
The surf forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Rio Nexpa in the next 16 days are 1.6m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Monday (Aug 31) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (CST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Thu 27th Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Sat 29th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s going down at Rio Nexpa.
We’re looking at a solid run of surf. This spot is a very consistent point and river mouth, facing the right directions for the swell. Water temp is about where it should be for now.
It kicks off this week. Thursday morning, 27th August, we’ve got glassy conditions with a 2ft south-southwest groundswell. Not big, but real clean. The wave energy sits at 577.
Friday afternoon, 28th August, we start to see some juice. An offshore breeze from the northwest at 6 mph cleans up a building 4ft swell, with combined energy hitting 1567. That’s excellent for the experienced crew. But the real standout early on is Saturday morning, 29th August. Almost no wind, just a slight air from the east at 3 mph, and a clean 5ft curve from the SSW, packing 1720 energy. It’s going to be firing for experienced surfers.
The next week keeps the waves coming. Sunday morning, 30th August, has clean 5ft surf. You’ve got more glassy mornings on Monday 31st and Tuesday 1st September, although the size drops to about knee-to-waist high. Thursday morning, 3rd September, brings another dose of quality: a 4ft groundswell with a very long 18-second period under glassy skies – perfect for a point break like this to turn on.
In the second week, things get a bit more uncertain but still show potential. Saturday morning, 5th September, offers clean 5ft waves from the east-northeast. Then, keep a close eye on Thursday afternoon, 10th September: clean conditions with a 5ft swell and a proper offshore wind from the north-northeast (1361 energy). It’s a long-range call, so promising but not locked in yet.
The biggest surf we see is on Friday morning, 4th September, with a glassy 6ft swell, and then Saturday 5th with a 5ft clean swell. That’s expert-level territory.
Crowds are often here, so be ready to share the stoke. My picks are the afternoon of Friday the 28th, all of Saturday morning the 29th, and that Thursday the 10th if the forecast holds.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Fri morning. Warm (max 31°C on Sat morning, min 25°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Sat night. Warm (max 30°C on Sun morning, min 25°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SW 14 | SSW 16 | SSW 17 | SSW 18 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 171 | 273 | 251 | 334 | 780 | 1021 | 1057 | 1141 | 1147 | 869 | 846 | 682 | 493 | 406 | 368 | 299 | 290 | 265 | 261 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | on | off | glassy | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:01AM0.64m | 8:51PM0.70m | 10:00AM0.63m | 9:13PM0.68m | 9:55AM0.63m | 9:34PM0.64m | 9:44AM0.64m | 9:51PM0.57m | 9:29AM0.66m | 9:56PM0.49m | 9:12AM0.70m | 9:19PM0.40m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:24AM0.11m | 3:14PM0.39m | 3:34AM0.16m | 3:24PM0.36m | 3:39AM0.23m | 3:40PM0.33m | 3:39AM0.30m | 4:00PM0.30m | 3:25AM0.36m | 4:23PM0.30m | 2:37AM0.40m | 4:48PM0.31m | 1:09AM0.35m | ||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | |
 | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — |
 | — | — | 7:08 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:06 | — | — | 7:05 | — |
mm | 4 | 2 | — | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
Temp °C | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 28 |
Feels °C | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 16 | SSW 17 | SSW 18 | SSW 12 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 |
| kJ | 171 | 251 | 251 | 334 | 780 | 1021 | 605 | 1141 | 1147 | 869 | 846 | 682 | 493 | 406 | 368 | 299 | 290 | 265 | 261 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 9 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 9 | SW 9 | SW 11 | WSW 10 | SSE 8 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
| kJ | 47 | 273 | 209 | 142 | 140 | 451 | 1057 | 568 | 281 | 122 | 76 | 166 | 168 | 20 | 119 | 70 | 154 | 152 | 241 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SW 20 | W 4 | S 9 | W 5 | S 12 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | S 8 | SSE 7 | SE 8 | SE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | WSW 8 | WSW 8 | W 10 |
| kJ | 126 | 53 | 45 | 186 | 10 | 74 | 17 | 11 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 21 | 16 | 26 | 25 | 77 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 10 | W 9 | W 5 | W 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 9 | W 4 | N 3 | NNE 3 | NNE 3 | E 9 |
| kJ | — | — | 34 | 39 | 27 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 141 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 384 | 0 | 0 | 384 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Michoacan | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Mexico | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rio Nexpa Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rio Nexpa provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rio Nexpa can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rio Nexpa surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rio Nexpa) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rio Nexpa may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Rio Nexpa is 60 km (37 miles) from La Orilla. If you plan a holiday in Michoacan, look for hotels and other accommodation in La Orilla. La Orilla has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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