Rio Nexpa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Rio Nexpa. We’ve got a solid run of surf ahead, but it’s a game of two halves – the mornings are where it’s at.

The pattern is clear: we’re looking at a consistent, long-period SW groundswell filling in. It’s not giant, but those 14 to 18 second intervals mean proper energy and shape, especially for a setup like Rio Nexpa. This point and river mouth break loves that SW direction, handling the longer period swell beautifully.

The big story is the combined energy. It’s strong, hitting a peak of 1140 on the morning of the 16th, which is a solid push. Even the weaker days are sitting in the moderate-to-strong range, like 878 on the 17th. This isn’t a weak run.

Now, the catch: afternoons get a cross-onshore wind that messes things up, but every morning we’re seeing glassy or clean conditions. That’s the window. Don't sleep in.

The standout is Tuesday, the 15th of September, in the morning. It’s not the biggest, with a 4ft SSW swell at 17 seconds, but it kicks off the run with glassy winds and a very good surf call. That combination of a long-period groundswell already pulsing in and perfect conditions is a beautiful thing. It’s a sign that the bank is on.

The absolute best on offer is Wednesday morning, the 16th of September. You get the biggest wave height of the run at 5ft from the SSW, still with that long 16-second period, and it’s glassy offshore from the NE. The energy is pumping at 1140. This is a morning for making memories at Nexpa. For the crew that can handle it, the Monday morning of the 21st is a dark horse – a 4ft swell with a 17-second period and clean cross-offshore winds. The combined energy is right up there at 1153. It’s a proper heavyweight day.

Because it’s a point and river break, that long-period swell (often over 15 seconds) will draw up perfectly and line up, giving you longer, thicker waves. Paddling out won’t be as frantic with those longer sets, either.

The water temp is 88°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – so no worries about needing that thick wetsuit. The crowds are “often” here, but on these morning glass-offs, the early bird gets the worm.

There is a bit of a quiet spell from the 23rd through to the 29th where the swell drops off and the energy gets weak, hitting a low of 332 on the 29th. The wind gets messy too, so honestly, the magic is all in that first week.

To wrap it up, get on it from the 15th to the 22nd. Don't even glance at the afternoon reports. It’s all about the dawn patrol.

Rusty.

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