Rio Nexpa Surf Break

Lat Long: 18.09° N 102.79° W

Rio Nexpa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Rio Nexpa sea temperature is
31.0° C
1.9° 

Rio Nexpa surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Rio Nexpa surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 11 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 15s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 11s period, SE swell with 851 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 15s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rio Nexpa this week:

The surf forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Rio Nexpa in the next 16 days are 1.9m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (CST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Sat 11th Jul)4ft (1.2m) 15s
Best Surf12AM (Sat 11th Jul)4ft (1.2m) 15s
Most Powerful 9PM (Tue 14th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rio Nexpa over the next 16 days.


Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's dial into Rio Nexpa for the next couple of weeks. We've got a tasty run of south-west groundswell on the cards, with a point break setup that just loves that direction. The water's sitting at a warm 88°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you can leave the fullsuit at home.

The action kicks off Friday July 10th. Early doors we have clean, glassy conditions with a 4ft SSW swell, a long 15-second period, and a nice bit of energy in the water (824). It’s looking like a real good session to start the day. The wind is set to swing onshore in the afternoon, so make the most of that morning window. The energy ticks up slightly to 861 in the arvo, but the quality drops off a cliff with the cross-on breeze.

Saturday the 11th is another early bird special. The ENE cross-off wind is going to have the waves clean and lined up at 4ft from the SSW, period still a long 15 seconds (703 energy). Again, you'll want to be in the water before lunch. Sunday morning (12th) is similar but with a chance of a thunderstorm overhead, though the ENE wind keeps things clean with 4ft SSW swell (662 energy).

For the standout through the middle of the week, lock in Monday July 13th morning. The swell drops a touch to 3ft from the SSW, but the light east wind has it glassy clean at the point (494 energy). It’s not the biggest, but the quality will be there.

Tuesday the 14th morning sees that ebb in size down to 3ft, but the glassy conditions from the ENE wind will make for some fun, small waves at the point (565 energy). A good one for the longboarders.

Now, for the real highlight of the outlook – keep an eye on Sunday July 19th. We get a jump back up to 4ft from the SW, and with a very long 17-second period, the energy jumps to 863. The morning window has a clean cross-off breeze, setting up what could be a proper session. This is a standout but being over a week out, it’s a promising call rather than a lock.

The run continues into the third week. Wednesday July 22nd morning picks up to 5ft SSW swell with a clean cross-off wind (687 energy). That’s a solid, clean swell for the point. Because it’s a point break, that long-period energy will wrap in nicely. The following Thursday morning, July 23rd, looks absolutely perfect with zero wind and a glassy 4ft SW swell (485 energy). That’s a morning to circle on the calendar for pure, clean conditions. And finally, Friday July 24th morning has a 5ft SSE swell with a clean offshore NE wind and big energy at 921. That’s a lot of water moving, so the point will be handling a good amount of power.

So, the best of the best? Friday July 10th morning for a classic start, Sunday the 19th for the big period groundswell potential, and Thursday the 23rd morning for near-perfect, glassy conditions.

Stay stoked, and I'll see you in the water.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Warm (max 32°C on Fri afternoon, min 26°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Wed night. Warm (max 31°C on Mon morning, min 26°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
0
3
3
1
3
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
0
3
2
0
2
2
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SSW
15
1.3
SSW
15
1.2
SSW
15
1.2
SSW
15
1.3
SSW
16
1.2
SSW
15
1.2
SSW
14
1.2
SSW
14
1.1
SSW
14
1
SSW
13
1
SSW
13
0.9
SSW
13
0.9
SSW
13
0.8
SE
13
1.8
SE
11
1.3
SSE
9
0.8
SW
16
1.1
SSW
9
1.2
S
9
1.2
SSW
11
0.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
665
683
636
610
796
679
594
594
459
342
336
273
269
224
730
244
310
208
230
337
171
Wind (km/h)
5
WNW
15
W
15
NW
10
ENE
15
WSW
10
NNW
10
ENE
5
W
10
ENE
5
E
10
SW
5
NE
5
ENE
10
SSW
5
NE
5
E
10
SSW
10
ENE
5
ENE
15
S
10
ENE
Wind State
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
on
off
glassy
on
glassy
glassy
on
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross-off
High Tide
9:57AM0.71m
6:25PM0.64m
10:23AM0.74m
7:10PM0.69m
10:56AM0.74m
7:54PM0.72m
11:32AM0.72m
8:36PM0.73m
12:11PM0.69m
9:15PM0.72m
12:51PM0.65m
9:50PM0.67m
1:35PM0.60m
10:12PM0.60m
Low Tide
2:49PM0.58m
2:26AM-0.02m
3:09PM0.58m
3:04AM-0.08m
3:34PM0.58m
3:44AM-0.10m
4:00PM0.57m
4:24AM-0.07m
4:30PM0.56m
5:03AM0.01m
5:04PM0.55m
5:39AM0.11m
5:46PM0.54m
clear
clear
rain showers
clear
clear
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
cloud
thunderstorm
part cloud
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
part cloud
clear
clear
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
thunderstorm
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:20
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:22
6:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
7:30
7:30
7:30
7:30
7:30
7:30
7:30
 mm
1
4
5
1
2
3
1
2
7
4
3
4
Temp °C
31
32
29
31
30
29
29
28
27
31
31
28
30
30
28
30
30
27
29
29
27
Feels °C
34
34
32
36
34
34
31
33
32
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
34
31
31
32
32
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Rio Nexpa Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Rio Nexpa provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rio Nexpa can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rio Nexpa surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rio Nexpa) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rio Nexpa may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Rio Nexpa is 60 km (37 miles) from La Orilla. If you plan a holiday in Michoacan, look for hotels and other accommodation in La Orilla. La Orilla has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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