Quimixto Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks for this stretch.

First thing’s first – the water is way warmer than it should be for this time of year, sitting at 88°F and running 4°F above the norm. That’s a proper anomaly, so you’ll be feeling that tropical bathwater.

Overall, the pattern is a slow build. The first few days are pretty average, but the back half of the forecast, especially the final week of July and into the 30th, has some real meat on the bone. The standout window is the 26th through the 29th, where the swell steps up and the conditions lock in. The energy readings are climbing into the 1600-2000+ range (moderate to strong), telling you there’s a lot of power in the water.

Our main break here is Quimixto, a consistent reef setup that’s fairly exposed. The optimum swell direction is WSW, and we see a shift from SSW to SW and WSW as the period goes on, which is a good sign.

Let’s start from the beginning. Thursday the 16th is a write-off – light cross-onshore winds, small 2-foot wind swell, no energy. Friday the 17th morning shows promise with a glassy 3-foot, but the energy is still moderate (364) and the afternoon gets stormy. Saturday the 18th morning is the first real spark: glassy again, 3 feet but with a long 17-second period, and the energy jumps to 608 (moderate). It’s a small runner but clean.

The 19th and 20th are messy – cross and cross-on winds, the swell pushes to 4 feet and 5 feet, but the quality is questionable. Sunday the 21st is similar. The 22nd of July, Wednesday morning, is a standout for the first week: glassy, 4 feet at 12 seconds, with energy at 726. That’s a clean, surfable morning.

Then we hit the big run. Sunday the 26th morning is glassy, 5 feet from the SSW at 18 seconds, with a strong energy reading of 1682. That’s excellent, but it’s only for experienced surfers given the size and power. The afternoon is even better: a clean, cross-off wind, 5 feet from the SW. Monday the 27th morning is the absolute peak: dead calm, glassy, 6 feet from the SW at 19 seconds, energy cranking at 2392 (strong). That’s the best of the whole forecast. Tuesday the 28th morning is another glassy gem at 6 feet, and Wednesday the 29th morning delivers a glassy 6 feet from the SSW. These are proper, powerful groundswell days.

A word of caution: with periods over 15 seconds, these swells are long-period groundswells. At a reef, that’s a dream – it’ll hold the shape, the waves will be wedgy, and the sets will have wide gaps, making the paddle out a bit easier. But if you’re at a beach break, that long period can make waves close out or break too straight. At Quimixto, it’s reef, so this is a serious plus.

The 30th and 31st drop off a bit. The 30th morning is 6 feet from the SW, but it’s cross-on and the period drops to 14 seconds, so it’s less clean. The energy is still solid (1568), but the wind is a factor.

Crowds at Quimixto can be a problem – it’s “sometimes” busy, so on the glassy mornings of the 26th, 27th, and 28th, expect company. It’s worth the paddle.

Alright, I’m signing off. Get ready for that last week of July. It’s going to be a ripper.

Rusty.

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