Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Scorpion Bay (San Juanico). This is a classic point break that really needs a good mix of swell direction and consistency to fire, and to be honest, it’s a bit of a waiting game this forecast period. The water is sitting at a very warm 83°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year—like about 5° above average, so don’t expect that cool refresh.

We’ve got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions to start. Wednesday the 19th through to the end of the following week, things are mostly marginal or just surfable. The swell is small, generally under 3 ft, coming from the SSW with a decent long period, but the energy is weak to moderate (356 down to 193). The winds are light and sometimes offshore, but the waves are just too small and inconsistent to get excited about. Expect a lot of days with light cross or offshore winds, clean but tiny.

Now, the real standout action starts to build around Friday the 28th of August. The swell starts to push up, and by Friday afternoon we’ve got a solid 4 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, and the energy is strong at 851. Winds are offshore from the west at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean. That’s the best combination of size, power, and clean conditions in the whole window—a real treat for the advanced crew who know this break.

The next couple of days, Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th, continue to deliver. Saturday morning shows 4 ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, energy at 936, and light cross winds. The afternoon is similar with cross-offshore winds and clean lines. Then Sunday the 30th morning is absolutely glassy—no wind at all—and the swell is still a solid 4 ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. That’s prime time. The energy is still very strong (759). These are the days to be out there.

After that, the swell starts to wind down into early September, but there’s still some glassy clean conditions on Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st, just with smaller waves around 3 ft to 3 ft. The last few days of the forecast, from the 2nd of September onwards, look pretty poor with onshore winds and choppy conditions, so that’s the time to sit it out.

Keep in mind, Scorpion Bay is inconsistent and can be fickle, even when the swell is showing. But that stretch from Friday the 28th through Sunday the 30th is where it’s at. The swell direction is perfectly aligned with the optimum SSW, the period is long, and the winds are offshore or glassy. It’s not for beginners—once the swell gets over 5 ft, it’s expert territory, but here it stays in the sweet spot for advanced surfers. The crowds are always a factor here, so get in early.

Rusty out.

Read more