Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range look at Scorpion Bay. This is all about one spot, and the next couple of weeks are looking like a real treat, so let's get into it.

We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up, but the very first window on Thursday the 10th is a bit of a tease. The swell is already there, a clean 3ft from the SSW with a very long 16-second period, and the water is absolutely balmy at 87°, feeling much warmer than normal. The issue is the wind. It’s cross-offshore for the morning session, which will keep things clean, but by the afternoon that west wind kicks up to a solid 16 mph. It’s offshore, so it will hold the waves up, but it’s a bit of a handful. The energy is moderate at 518.

Friday the 11th is where it starts to get interesting. Swell remains at 3ft, but it’s started to shift a touch more SW, still with a long period of 15 seconds. Morning wind is light at 9 mph, and the afternoon is clean offshore at 16 mph. The combined energy dips a little to 360, but the conditions are there. By Saturday the 12th, the swell drops a notch to 2ft, but with light offshore winds all morning, it’ll be clean and fun on the points.

Now, the standout period kicks off from Monday the 16th of September. We see a beautiful, consistent pulse of groundswell, with 3ft from the SSW settling in. The period is a long 16 seconds, which for a point break like Scorpion Bay is absolute perfection – long walls, long rides. The wind through the middle of next week is looking dreamy: light cross-offshore breezes in the mornings, glassy, with gentle offshore in the afternoons. This is where it’s at.

But the real highlight, the one you circle on the calendar, is Sunday the 20th of September. The swell kicks up to 3ft and bumps to a 19-second period from the SW – that’s very long-period groundswell, meaning serious energy and power. The combined energy hits 675, which is moderate to strong. The wind is tricky though, with a light cross-shore in the morning that will put a few bumps on the face, but it’s light. If it cleans up, this could be the session of the fortnight.

The run continues strong into the final week. From Monday the 21st, the swell holds at a clean 3ft from the SW, and we get consistent offshore winds, especially in the mornings. By Wednesday the 23rd, you’re looking at 4ft with a moderate offshore wind in the afternoon – that’s punchy, clean, and firing for experts. The energy stays solid in the 500-600 range. The whole tail end of the forecast, through the 24th and 25th, continues with clean 3-3ft surf and light winds.

Overall, Scorpion Bay is set for a long, sustained run. The waves aren't huge, but the consistency, the long periods, and the predominantly light to moderate offshore winds make this a dream run for the point. If you can get there between the 16th and the 25th, you’re in for a treat. Just remember, it’s an inconsistent wave in general, but when it lines up like this, it’s world-class. Get on it.

- Rusty

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