Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) is the only game in town, and it’s a point break that loves a good SSW groundswell, but it’s an inconsistent spot – doesn’t turn on every cycle. This forecast starts slow, has a short pulse of proper juice, and then fades into a long stretch of small stuff.

Wednesday the 2nd kicks off weak. Morning is a dud with a tiny 2ft SW swell, a cross-on breeze, and energy that’s barely there (461). Not worth paddling out. Afternoon cleans up with offshore wind, but it’s still just 2ft. You’re scratching for a bump.

Thursday the 3rd is the real deal. Morning delivers 5ft from the S, period at 13 seconds – proper groundswell. Wind is light cross-off, so the wave faces are clean. The combined energy jumps to 1477 – moderate. This is the standout session of the whole outlook. Excellent for experienced surfers, and the point will handle that long-period swell, giving you long walls. Expect crowds – it’s a famous wave. Water temp is 85°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so no wetsuit needed.

Friday the 4th builds: 8ft to 8ft from the S/SSW, still that 13-second period, but the wind turns sloppy – cross-on and cross-shore, making it choppy. Energy is strong (3013 and 2973), but the quality is wrecked. This one’s experts only, and with that wind, it might be more fun on a kite.

Saturday the 5th peaks at 10ft from the SSW. That’s for big-wave hounds. Morning is cross-on and messy, but afternoon cleans up with cross-off winds. Energy is still very strong (2678/2242). If you’re solid, the afternoon is your window.

Sunday the 6th holds at 8ft from the SW, clean cross-off winds all day. Another excellent session for experienced surfers with strong energy (2695). This is your second-best day.

Monday the 7th drops to 5-6ft from the WSW, with fresh offshore wind – clean, punchy waves. Energy drops to moderate (1390/1211). Good for a morning surf.

Then it’s a long, slow fade. From Tuesday the 8th to Wednesday the 16th, it’s small: 1ft to 4ft. There are glimpses of clean, glassy conditions (like the 9th with 2ft and glassy wind) and long-period SW swells (up to 22 seconds on the 17th), but the wave height is too small to generate any real power. Most days the energy is under 600, which is weak. The 10th through 16th are particularly flat with poor conditions or strong offshore winds that make paddling a nightmare.

From the 17th, the swell drops to just 1ft, even with a very long 22-second period. That’s a flat calm. Energy is still weak (258-299). You might get a tiny clean wave on the point, but it’s a long paddle for a short ride.

So the bottom line: your real window is Thursday the 3rd morning through Sunday the 6th afternoon. After that, it’s a 9-day stretch of nearly nothing. The break is inconsistent normally, so a long flat spell is kind of expected for the area. Fingers crossed the models change, but as it sits, aim for that Thursday morning glass.

Rusty

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