Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Scorpion Bay (San Juanico). This is a classic point break that needs a solid SSW swell to light up, and it’s famously inconsistent, so when it does, you gotta be ready. The water is sitting at 81°, which is a full 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real anomaly, feels like bathwater.

The window kicks off with a standout on Thursday, July 30th. It’s not a huge swell, about 4ft from the SSW, but with a 14-second period pushing moderate wave energy (764), and a moderate offshore wind from the W, the place is gonna be clean and lined up. This is a point break, so that long period groundswell is perfect for it. Best on offer for the whole run, no question. Just be aware, crowds are always a thing here, so expect a full lineup.

The quality drops off through Friday, July 31st, with a smaller 3ft SSW swell and light cross-offshore winds. It’s still clean, but the energy is lower (372). The best of the morning session is rideable, but by the afternoon, it gets marginal.

From Saturday, August 1st, through to Wednesday, August 6th, the swell shrinks to 1ft to 2ft and the wind turns mostly cross or light cross-off. It’s surfable but very ordinary, with combined energy dropping to between 136 and 248. Not worth a special trip, just a paddle if you’re desperate.

Then, around Thursday, August 6th afternoon, the energy starts to build again. The morning of Friday, August 7th sees a 2ft SSW swell with a very long 18-second period, pushing moderate energy (351) and light winds. That’s your second real highlight – clean walls, but the sets will be spaced out with that long period. The afternoon of Friday, August 7th and Saturday, August 8th sees the swell bump up to 3ft-3ft, but the tide and wind combo make it feel a bit inconsistent and lumpy.

Sunday, August 9th and Monday, August 10th both offer 3ft SSW swell with clean conditions and light winds in the mornings. The energy is moderate (291-389). It’s solid, fun, and consistent enough for a point break.

The best of the second week looks like Tuesday, August 11th afternoon. The swell jumps to 3ft from the SW, but with an 18-second period and moderate offshore wind, the energy hits 648. That’s a proper injection of power. The conditions are clean, but that long period will make the sets roll through with more wait time between them. Wednesday, August 12th and Thursday, August 13th also hold 3ft SW swell at 15-16 seconds, with light winds and offshore in the afternoons, keeping the energy in the 400-500 range. Good, reliable point surf.

Friday, August 14th morning is a write-off with cross-shore wind and poor conditions, but the afternoon swings back with a moderate offshore and 2ft SW swell, energy at 400. It’s a decent finish.

Overall, the standout is Thursday, July 30th afternoon for the combination of swell size, direction, and glassy offshore wind. The runner-up is Tuesday, August 11th afternoon for the pulse of energy. Given the inconsistent nature of the spot, this is a solid run.

Rusty.

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