Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Scorpion Bay. It’s an inconsistent spot, but this forecast shows a slow build, then a couple of proper days that will make you remember why you drive out there.

The first few days are small but clean. Thursday morning, July 9th, we’ve got a 4ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period – that’s the long, juicy energy these points love. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s a bit messy early, but by Thursday afternoon the breeze swings to a cross-offshore and the waves clean right up. The energy is moderate (764), and while it’s not huge, the quality is there for the few who paddle out. Friday and Saturday follow a similar pattern: 3ft, still SSW, with periods dropping to 14-15 seconds. The winds are mostly cross-off to offshore, which keeps the faces glassy. The energy stays moderate (around 480-500), and it’s good fun for a longboard or a fish. Sunday is much the same.

Then Monday, July 13th, the swell drops a bit to 3ft, still clean. Tuesday, July 14th, sees the swell direction shift to SW and the period jumps back to 18 seconds – proper groundswell, very long. The height is only 2ft to 2ft, so it’s gutless, but the energy is still moderate (up to 386) and the offshore winds will make it look better than it is. Wednesday through Friday, July 15th-17th, the swell stays small and the conditions are clean, but it’s ordinary.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Friday afternoon, July 17th, the swell jumps to 7ft from the south, with a 15-second period and a very light cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy jumps to a strong 1837. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – it’s got power, it’s got shape, but it’s also going to be a touch too big for beginners. The next day, Saturday, July 18th, is a standout. The morning is a bit blown out with a cross-onshore wind and 8ft swell – that’s expert-only territory, and messy. But by Saturday afternoon, the wind dies to glassy, the swell drops to a still-serious 7ft, and the energy is a solid 1575. That afternoon session is the pick of the whole forecast. Clean, glassy, long-period groundswell on a point break that can handle it. You’ll need to be on your game, but it will be worth it.

Sunday, July 19th, backs off to 3ft but with a very long 17-second period from the SW and clean offshore winds. Energy is still moderate (648-721), and it’ll be clean and fun. The following week, July 20th to 24th, sees a few more pulses of decent SSW swell. Wednesday, July 22nd afternoon, has a 5ft SSW swell with 13 seconds and light cross-offshore winds, giving you 882 energy – very good conditions. And Thursday, July 23rd, is another expert-level standout: 6ft SSW swell, 14 seconds, and fresh offshore winds. The energy is strong (1366-1430), and the waves will be powerful and clean. Friday, July 24th, morning holds 5ft with moderate offshore winds and 851 energy – still very good for the experienced crew.

The water temperature is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing weird. Crowds are always a factor here, so expect a few people. The spot is a point break, inconsistent, and it needs a SSW swell to really fire, which is exactly what we’re getting. The period on the better days is long (15-18 seconds), which means the waves will have real shape and power, but also a bit of a wait between sets. Paddling out is easier, though.

So, the best on offer is Saturday afternoon, July 18th, for the glassy, 7ft SSW groundswell, and Thursday, July 23rd, for the 6ft SSW with fresh offshore winds. Those are the two you circle. The rest of the run is clean but small, with a few other fun days mixed in. Don’t sleep on the inconsistent nature of this place – when it’s on, it’s on.

Rusty.

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