Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the next few weeks for Scorpion Bay.

This is a classic setup – a point break that needs the right swell and wind to really fire. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the long-range is looking like it could dish up some serious moments. The water is sitting at 74°, which is about standard for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The opening days are a bit of a tease. Monday the 13th is the first real chance to get wet, with a clean 3ft SSW swell rolling in. The morning is cross-off, but the afternoon swings to a true offshore from the WNW with a moderate breeze, keeping things tidy. The energy is moderate (385), and the waves will be there, but it’s not the standout of the window.

Things drop right off after that. Tuesday the 14th through to Friday the 17th are a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak swell (1ft to 2ft) and a mix of cross and fresh offshore winds that just don’t line up for good waves. That’s a solid four-day gap with nothing worth paddling for.

Saturday the 18th morning sees a glimmer of hope. The swell is back to 2ft from the SW, but the energy is climbing (578 – moderate), and the light cross-off breeze makes it look clean. The afternoon, however, gets blown out by a fresh 19 mph offshore. It’s a half-day option at best.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 19th is your first true standout. The morning session is the pick of the early run. A 3ft SW groundswell hits with a solid 17-second period, and the light WNW offshore means it’s glassy. The combined energy is strong at 763, and the long period will make these waves push through with real shape and power. It’s an inconsistent break, so you’ll need patience, but the quality on offer is top-notch. The afternoon gets hammered by a 22 mph offshore, so be an early bird.

Monday the 20th is a mixed bag. A morning risk of thunderstorms and a cross-on wind makes it a mess, but the afternoon cleans right up with a light offshore and a solid 3ft SW swell (548 energy). It’s another session for the dedicated.

The middle of the following week builds some serious size, but it comes with baggage. Tuesday the 21st afternoon sees a jump to 5ft SSW, but the cross-shore wind and 14-second period make it a bit jumbled. By Wednesday the 22nd, we’re looking at 7ft to 8ft of SSW swell – that’s heavy (1880 to 2199 energy). This is expert territory only. The cross and cross-on winds will make it a grinder, and for a point break, that long-period swell might be a bit straight. Not the best look for a paddle session.

The end of the first week of the second week is where the real gold is. Friday the 24th is the absolute standout of the entire forecast. The morning is a dead-set winner: 5ft of clean SW swell, a 12-second period, light offshore wind from the W, and the energy is very strong at 862. The conditions will be immaculate. The afternoon gets a bit wild with a 22 mph offshore, but the morning alone is worth the wait.

Saturday the 25th holds solid with 4ft SW and a gentle offshore. It’s not as epic as Friday, but it’s a very good, clean day of surfing.

The final few days (July 27-28) look like another pulse. Monday the 27th afternoon picks up with a 4ft S swell and clean conditions. Tuesday the 28th morning is a beauty: 5ft S swell, 10-second period, light cross-off wind, and strong energy (751). This is a solid, punchy, clean session to close out the run.

Bottom line: The first week is a struggle. Don’t bother before the 19th unless you’re desperate. The real standouts are the morning of Friday the 24th and the morning of Sunday the 19th. The 24th is the best of the lot – clean, offshore, and a proper swell. Be patient, and you’ll be rewarded.

Rusty.

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