Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a chat about the next couple of weeks, mostly focused on one spot that’s got our full attention. It’s Scorpion Bay, that iconic point break, and she’s looking pretty special for a run of days.

We kick things off on Tuesday the 15th of September. There’s some lingering swell in the water, but the real story starts Wednesday the 16th. Swell from the SSW builds to a consistent 3ft with a period of 16 seconds – that’s proper long-period groundswell, perfect for a point like this. The wind is light and offshore or cross-off most of the day, so expect clean, lined-up walls. The combined swell energy is sitting at 504 (moderate energy), and with those conditions, it’s just about as good as it gets. This is the standout.

Thursday the 17th holds the same 3ft SSW swell, but the afternoon gets a fresh offshore breeze at 35 km/h. It’ll still be clean, but that wind might make things a bit more lively. Friday the 18th sees the swell drop a touch to 2ft, but the period extends to a very long 19 seconds – that’s deep ocean energy (504 again). Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th keep the quality up with similar 2-3ft SW groundswell and offshore mornings. Crowds at Scorpion Bay are always an issue, and with this kind of forecast, you can expect plenty of company. It’s a fickle break, inconsistent at the best of times, so when it lines up like this, paddling out is a must.

Early the following week, Monday the 21st through Thursday the 24th continues the offshore wind theme with 3ft SSW swell, though the period drops back to 14-16 seconds. The combined energy dips from 505 down to 295 by Thursday morning, but it’s still clean and surfable.

The real gem pops up on Friday the 25th of September. The morning session goes glassy – zero wind – and you’ve still got 3ft of SSW groundswell with a 14-second period. That is a rare, pristine moment (combined energy 309). By afternoon, a fresh offshore kicks in, but that morning window is pure magic.

Now, a word on the water: it’s about average for September – no extreme anomalies to report, just your standard warm Baja water for this time of year.

From Saturday the 26th, the consistency starts to fade. Winds turn more cross-on and the swell quality drops. There’s still the odd glimmer – like the afternoon of Sunday the 27th with a clean 2ft SW groundswell (270) – but the magic is mostly gone. The late period, from the 28th to the 30th, is a mixed bag of ordinary conditions and smaller 1-2ft swells. A few clean windows on the 30th of September morning with a 2ft SW groundswell (270) might be worth a look for the diehards, but overall, the first week is where the real action is.

So, to put it simply: focus on the first week. Wednesday the 16th and that glassy Friday the 25th morning are the two standout windows. The rest is still rideable, but those days have the magic.

Rusty.

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