Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s brewing for Scorpion Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’m Rusty, and I’ll give it to you straight.

The overall picture here is a long, patient wait for the real pay-off. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the second half of this outlook is where things get seriously interesting, especially with some classic, long-period groundswell lining up. The water is absolutely cooking right now, about 83°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 6° above average, so a shorty or even just boardshorts will be the call.

Right out of the gate, Thursday the 13th has a small 2ft swell from the SSW but with a solid 16-second period. Problem is, the wind is a moderate offshore at 16 mph, and the combined energy is only moderate at 520. The call is marginal, so we’ll let that one slide.

We kick off properly on Friday the 14th. Morning sees a clean 3ft SSW groundswell, period stretching out to a very long 18 seconds. The energy is picking up (725). Winds are offshore at 12 mph, keeping it clean. It’s small, but that period is magic for a point break like Scorpion Bay (San Juanico). Conditions hold into the afternoon with the swell bumping up to 4ft and energy jumping to 846. Saturday the 15th builds on that with a 4ft SSW swell and a 16-second period. The morning is the pick with a light 9 mph offshore breeze – that’s going to be silky. The combined energy is still at a healthy 697 for that session.

Sunday the 16th sees the swell drop back to 3ft, but the period stays at a solid 14 seconds. Early morning has a light, cross-off breeze making for clean waves. The energy is falling off (378), but it’s still surfable. Monday the 17th is similar in size, with another 3ft SSW swell. The morning is clean with light cross-off winds, and the afternoon has a moderate offshore, so you can potentially get a session in both ends of the day.

We hit a bit of a flat patch from Tuesday the 18th through to Saturday the 22nd of August. The swell stays tiny, between 1ft and 3ft, and while the winds are often light or offshore, the wave energy is low – dipping as low as 196. It’s surfable but very ordinary, a real waiting game. A few sessions on the 19th and 22nd might offer something rideable on a longboard, but nothing to get excited about. Sunday the 23rd is a write-off with a strong cross-onshore wind.

Now, here’s the standout period. Finally, on Monday the 24th, the surf switches on. The morning delivers a clean 4ft SSW swell with a 14-second period and energy building to 672. The light cross-off winds will have it looking flawless. But the afternoon is the one to circle: the swell jumps to 5ft from the S, period holds at 15 seconds, and the combined energy rockets into the strong range at 1211. That’s a significant pulse of energy for Scorpion Bay. The wind is a gentle cross-off, so expect long, clean lines peeling down the points. This is classic Scorpion.

Tuesday the 25th keeps the momentum going. The swell holds at 5ft from the SSW, period at 12 seconds. Morning has light cross-off winds for great conditions. The energy is still strong at 800. A quick drop-off happens on Wednesday the 26th, but then Thursday the 27th fires back up. The morning brings a clean 4ft S swell with an 11-second period and energy at 763. The afternoon session is a potential glass-out gem: light rain, 4ft S swell, and glassy conditions with a 3 mph westerly. That’s as good as it gets for cleanliness.

A word of warning for the locals: on Friday the 28th, a strong breeze from the ENE kicks in at 25-28 mph, turning the ocean into a choppy mess. That one’s a write-off.

The highlight of the whole outlook is undeniably Monday the 24th afternoon and Thursday the 27th afternoon. That 5ft S swell on the 24th with that energy reading is a serious event for this point.

Right, I’m signing off. Get ready for that second week, it’s going to be worth the wait.

Rusty

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