Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s cooking at Scorpion Bay.

The real story here is a solid run of clean, rideable surf, with the absolute cream of the crop landing early next week. The water is sitting at 72°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – no real surprises there.

First up, we've got a bit of a slow start. Friday the 3rd is marginal, with a 3ft SSW swell and 30 km/h offshore wind, but the combined energy is moderate at 392, and it's just not doing enough to get excited about. Saturday the 4th cleans up nicely in the morning with a light SW cross-off breeze and that same 3ft SSW swell, but the real story comes Sunday the 5th morning when the swell pushes to 3ft with a 18-second period and combined energy jumps to 626. That’s proper groundswell energy building.

Then comes the standout: Monday the 6th. Morning brings clear skies, a light SW cross-off, and a 3ft SSW groundswell with a 20-second period. The combined energy hits 884, and with those conditions, it’s going to be clean and lined up. That long 20-second period means the waves will have serious push – think long walls with plenty of time between sets, absolutely made for a point break like this. Afternoon stays just as good with moderate offshore wind.

Tuesday the 7th is another highlight. Morning is glassy with a 3ft SSW swell at 18 seconds, energy at 858. By the afternoon, the swell bumps to 4ft with the same direction and period, energy climbing to 973. That’s the heaviest, most powerful swell of the forecast – still clean with a moderate offshore. This is the session for experienced surfers who know the Bay; it’s not a beginner wave at that size.

After that, the swell slowly backs off through the week but stays fun. Wednesday the 8th through Friday the 10th sees a drop to around 4ft, with a mix of cross and cross-off winds keeping things mostly clean. The period drops to 15-16 seconds, so less grunt but still plenty of shape. Energy stays in the moderate-to-strong range (around 600-700).

From Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 14th, the swell settles around 3ft, with periods around 13-14 seconds. Light cross-off winds keep it tidy. Combined energy drops to the 300-400 range – surfable but nothing to rush for.

Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th is a quiet patch. Swell drops to 2ft-2ft, mostly from the SW. The energy is weak, between 163 and 293. Conditions are clean with light winds, but it’s small. Worth a longboard or a foiling session if that’s your thing.

Now, here’s the big finish. Saturday the 18th morning shows a small but feisty 3ft S swell with a 16-second period and energy at 743. But the afternoon is the real wildcard: a 4ft S swell, 16 seconds, and combined energy hitting 1006 – that’s strong wave energy. With a WSW cross-off breeze and clear skies, this is a standout option, but it’s two weeks out, so keep an eye on it.

One thing to note: Scorpion Bay is inconsistent, and crowds are always a factor here. When it’s good, it’s a magnet. But with that long-period groundswell, the point will reel off some beautiful, long rides. Don’t expect a quick paddle out.

Overall: the best bets are Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th – clean, powerful, and long-period SSW swell. That’s your window. Saturday the 18th afternoon is promising, but it’s a long-range call.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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