Scorpion Bay (San Juanico) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, dialing in the Baja picture for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one spot to talk about, and it’s a classic.

The main event is Scorpion Bay (San Juanico), a legendary point break. It’s inconsistent, so when it turns on, you’ve got to be ready. The water is a shocking 86°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be surfing in a warm bath.

We kick off on Saturday, the 5th of September. The morning is the standout for the whole outlook. We’ve got a solid 6ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is a powerful 1842. A light SW cross-offshore breeze is keeping it clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The afternoon sees the swell bump up to 8ft, but the wind gets a bit stronger and the conditions are more marginal.

Sunday the 6th keeps the energy going. The morning has a 6ft SW swell, period at 11 seconds, and a moderate offshore wind from the west. The energy is still strong at 1258. It’s very good, clean surf. The afternoon wind picks up to 19 mph, making it a bit of a chore.

Monday the 7th is still solid. The early session has a 5ft SW swell with a moderate offshore wind and clean conditions. Combined energy is 923. The afternoon drops to 3ft but the period stretches out to 14 seconds, delivering clean, lined-up waves. It’s very good, but the energy is dropping.

From Tuesday the 8th, the size starts to fade. The swell drops under 4ft for the rest of the run. The wind is light and variable, with some glassy conditions on Tuesday afternoon and several clean, cross-offshore days through the middle of the week. The combined energy sits in the 200-600 range, and the period stays long, often 15-18 seconds, meaning the waves will have good shape but the gap between sets will be noticeable.

The real highlight is that first Saturday morning. It’s the biggest, cleanest, and most powerful window in the whole 16 days. After that, it’s a slow, steady decline into fun but smaller waves. The last week is all about clean, waist-high waves with very long periods. For a surfer who knows the break, those small, clean, long-period days can still be a treat, but the power is gone. The best bet for the second week is the 20th of September, with a 3ft SW swell, a 17-second period, and a light offshore wind, making for clean, lined-up waves.

This is a run for the patient surfer. The big juice is the first weekend, then it’s about enjoying the long, clean lines of a fading swell.

Rusty.

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